The EIA reported a draw of – 87 Bcf in natural gas storage last week with weather models continuing to be confused. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.
The EIA reported a draw of -87 Bcf in natural gas storage last week with weather models continuing to be confused. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.
Weather models have been horribly inaccurate as the future’s price makes clear for 2018/2019. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 1/3/19
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday January 10 2018 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual – 87* Bcf Prior -20 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast -77 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -50 to 91 Bcf
- EIA swap: -83 to – 83 @ CT 15.13
C=Reclassification. *Reclassifications from working gas to base gas resulted in decreased working gas stocks of approximately 4 Bcf in the Mountain region for the week ending January 4, 2019. The implied flow for the week is a decrease of 87 Bcf to Lower 48 working gas stocks. (See Notes and Definitions for more information on “implied flow.”)
Last Week’s Report -20 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 2,705 Bcf
- Storage 2017/Same Week: 3155
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3265
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey -69
- DJ Survey -80
- Reuters Survey -76
- Platts Survey -84
Banks and Brokers-
- Tim Evans Citigroup -50
- Macquarie -77
- Raymond James –
- TFS -76
Analysts
- AgWxMan –
- Jacob Meisel -75
- Shane Bolling –
- Genscape -77
- Gabe Harris -72
- Kidduff Report -51
- CJS Analytics –
- Shura Li – Pira -77
- Robry825 -84
- 125WMARION –
- NG Junkie –
- Norse -74
- Andrea Paltry -77
- Point Logic -77
- RonH –
- RBN Energy -86
- Schneider Electric –
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville -65
- Trade Mechanics – 82
- Andy Wiessman – 91
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: – 90 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: – 83 Bcf
“Last year’s record-shattering draw (359) is skewing the five-year-average somewhat – bringing it up 38 Bcf – but this week looks soft regardless of how you cut it. Although there has been some colder weather that added 30 Bcf of modeled residential and commercial demand, temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest remain 8 and 3 degrees above normal, respectively. As a result, inventories are expected to drop to 2,621 Bcf, with the deficit to the five-year average stock level shrinking further to just 15 percent.” – Bentek
EIA Swap Market via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit our LNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Import Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) )
With the Government Shutdown CFTC is not releasing COT
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk