The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +62 Bcf last week with futures continuing to listlessly drift under 2.80 again. Shoulder month is upon us with heat predictions starting to swirl and builds ahead.
The EIA reported a natural gas storage build of +62 Bcf last week with futures continuing to listlessly drift under 2.80 again. Shoulder month is upon us with heat predictions starting to swirl and builds ahead.
The last 9 week’s draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the cooling season. The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 4/26/18
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday May 4 2018 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual +62 Bcf Prior -18 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +50 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +45 to +60 Bcf
- EIA swap: +48 to +55 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report -18 Bcf #TCNG
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders
Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: +47 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: +50 Bcf
“The estimated build to inventories is high for the first injection of the season, but low for the end of April. As May begins, barring a surprisingly large injection announcement, it seems possible that the month of April as a whole will be a net draw on inventories.” – Bentek
Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +51
- DJ Survey +51
- Reuters Survey +52
- Platts Survey +49
Banks and Brokers
- Tim Evans Citigroup +55
- Eclipse –
- Macquarie +51
- Raymond James +51
- TFS +53
Analysts
- AgWxMan –
- Gabe Harris +52
- Genscape +55
- Kidduff Report +49
- Shura Li – Pira +45
- Peter Marrin – SNL +54
- Norse +53
- Andrea Paltry +54
- Point Logic +49
- Robry825 –
- Schneider Electric +55
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +58
- Trade Mechanics +51
- Andy Wiessman +60
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
It’s never about a single Inventory report. It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly
RonH Data with @ronh999
Natgas inventory vs 5yr avg for week 17 of 2018
Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts – Incl Rover and Sabine – check daily with Ron @ronh999
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 1,281 Bcf
- Storage 2016/Same Week: 2178
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1808
Sources: TradersCommunity Research
From the Traders Community News Desk