The EIA reported a build of +65 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Winter is approaching with model confusion. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.
The EIA reported a build of +65 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Winter is approaching with model confusion. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments.
From here weather models focus on cold but be careful we are in the shoulder season and the disrepancy between sample and EIA activity can be significant, meaning an outside number is a big chance. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 11/1/18
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday November 8 2018 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual + 65 Bcf Prior +48 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +58 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +52 to +64 Bcf
- EIA swap: +59 to +61 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report +48 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 3,143 Bcf
- Storage 2016/Same Week: 3766
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3781
Weather Watch
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
-15041 longs +4430 shorts -19471 net change 81% net long (from 83% net long)
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
U.S. Natural Gas Use By State
++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models
Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: +52 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: +59 Bcf
“The final report of the official injection season will most likely close a bit of the deficit to the five-year average inventory levels, but revised weather outlooks for November increased HDDs by almost 13 percent over the weekend, bolstering Henry Hub amid concerns with the historically low carry-out. The largest shift week over week was in residential and commercial demand, which halted for the first time since September after steadily growing from 11 to 24 Bcf/d throughout the shoulder season. As a result, inventories are forecast to wrap up October at 3,202 Bcf, 15 percent below the five-year average, and at the lowest levels for this time of year in at least a decade.” – Bentek
Natural Gas Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +59
- DJ Survey +56
- Reuters Survey +58
- Platts Survey +55
Banks and Brokers
- Tim Evans Citigroup +59
- Macquarie +59
- Raymond James +58
- TFS +60
Analysts
- AgWxMan +61
- Jacob Meisel +63
- Shane Bolling +67
- Genscape +58
- Gabe Harris +55
- Kidduff Report +61
- CJS Analytics +
- Shura Li – Pira +55
- Robry825 +
- 125WMARION +
- NG Junkie +60
- Norse +61
- Andrea Paltry +64
- Point Logic +58
- RonH +
- Schneider Electric +60
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +59
- Trade Mechanics +68
- Andy Wiessman +57
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
It’s never about a single Inventory report. It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality….
@BrynneKKelly
RonH Data with @ronh999
Natgas Production for the month
Natgas inventory for the week
Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week
Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week
Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts
In September the US exported 24 loads from Sabine & Cove Point combined of LNG Est 82.5 Bcf. .
In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.
Genscape Exports To Mexico Forecast
Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts – Incl Rover and Sabine – check daily with Ron @ronh999
- Freeport LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 2Q 2019.
- Corpus Christi LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 4Q 2018.
Nuclear Output
Nuclear Output – check daily with Ron @ronh999
Sources: TradersCommunity Research
From the Traders Community News Desk