EIA Reports -18 Bcf Natural Gas Storage Draw

The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of -18 Bcf this week with futures continuing to listlessly drift slowly to test 2.80 again.  With cold still hanging around up East it’s around 1 more week in the heating season.

The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of -36 Bcf last week with futures continuing to listlessly drift slowly to test 2.80 again.  With cold still hanging around up East it’s around 1 more week in the heating season.

us natgasl locations

The last 8 week’s draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season, but does it matter? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 4/19/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release TimeThursday April 26 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual –  18 Bcf  Prior  -36 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  – 13 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +2 to – 25 Bcf
  • EIA swap: – 14 to -14 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report -36 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders

Natgas COT 4 3 18

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model: -11  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: –13  Bcf

“Regardless of the magnitude, any withdrawal will be very bullish relative to last year’s 71-Bcf net injection and the five-year average injection of 60 Bcf. Population-weighted temps across the US increased 1.5 degrees week on week. Although the East, Midwest and south-central regions experienced slight warming, temperatures there remained 6 or 7 degrees below normal, pushing withdrawal season for the total US two weeks further than has historically occurred. The Northeast cell region saw the most significant swing in demand in response to the warmer weather: Diminished heating load cut 20 Bcf of demand from the week. – Bentek

Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey -12 
  • DJ Survey -11 
  • Reuters Survey -12
  • Platts Survey -12

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup -8
  • Eclipse –
  • Macquarie -8
  • Raymond James -22
  • TFS -9

Analysts

  • AgWxMan –
  • Gabe Harris -20
  • Genscape -15
  • Kidduff Report -9
  • Shura Li – Pira -13
  • Peter Marrin – SNL -18
  • Norse -17
  • Andrea Paltry –
  • Point Logic -11
  • Robry825 -25
  • Schneider Electric -13
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville -16
  • Trade Mechanics –
  • Andy Wiessman +2

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

    

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas inventory vs 5yr avg for week 16 of 2018

US natgas winter inventory withdrawal is now at 24 weeks. That is longer than recent years.  Natgas withdrawal of -18 compared to 5yr avg of +60 injection

 Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 1,299 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 2107
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1748

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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