EIA Reports Build of 98 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA reported a higher  than expected build of +98 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures rose sharply this week to $3.26 in the front fell on the report to 3,13. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. 

The EIA reported a higher than expected build of +98 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures rose sharply this week to $3.26 in the front and fell to 3.13 on the report. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. 

us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus is storms with Hurricane Florence, Helene and Issac all in play. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 9/27/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday October 4 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +98 Bcf  Prior  +46 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +91 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +75 to +99 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +92 to +93 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +46 Bcf #TCNG

Hurricane Watch

 


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG W 9 29 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change +25,631 longs -39,690 shorts +65321 net change 70% net long

   

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +80  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +87  Bcf

“After last week’s surprisingly weak build, the return of cooler weather cut into demand and lifted sample injections per degree back above the five-year average. Modeled estimates for power burn dropped a whopping 42 Bcf week over week, partially offset by a 17-Bcf gain in residential and commercial demand. This week’s forecast is above the five-year average injection of 84 Bcf, closing up the deficit a hair. These low power burn weeks during shoulder season have allowed the Lower 48 to gain a bit of ground before we start to see heating demand begin in earnest, but as of last Thursday inventories in every region (except mountain) remain double or triple digits below their five-year minimums.” – Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +86
  • DJ Survey +86
  • Reuters Survey +88
  • Platts Survey +85

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +84
  • Macquarie +92
  • Raymond James +77
  • TFS +84

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +91
  • Jacob Meisel +88
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +93
  • Gabe Harris +99
  • Kidduff Report +84
  • CJS Analytics +
  • Shura Li – Pira +89
  • Robry825 +
  • 125WMARION +
  • NG Junkie +86
  • Norse +92
  • Andrea Paltry +90
  • Point Logic +86
  • RonH +
  • Schneider Electric +84
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +92
  • Trade Mechanics +92
  • Andy Wiessman +84

 

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

 

      

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week

 

 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Domh8tQU8AAHGDx.jpg

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

 

In September the US exported 24 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 82.5 Bcf. .

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.

 

Genscape Exports To Mexico Forecast

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts – Incl Rover and Sabine – check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

  

 

  • Freeport LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 2Q 2019.
  • Corpus Christi LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 4Q 2018.

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output – check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,768 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3458
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3389

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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