EIA Reports Build of 46 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA reported a lower than expected build of +46 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures rose sharply this week on Nukes and weather, pulling back on expiration. Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. 

The EIA reported a less than expected build of +46 Bcf in natural gas storage last week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures rose sharply this week on nukes and weather, pulling back on expiration.  Meanwhile Mexican exports near record high as we watch LNG shipments. 

us natgasl locations

From here weather models focus is storms with Hurricane Florence, Helene and Issac all in play. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 9/20/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday September 27 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +46 Bcf  Prior  +86 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +60 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +49 to +73 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +52 to +54 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +86 Bcf #TCNG

Hurricane Watch


EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG W 9 22 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change +13,631 longs +34,579 shorts -3,368 net change 61% net long


Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +57  Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +59  Bcf

This storage week threw a couple curveballs that will likely result in a wide spread in analyst forecasts,” Bentek says. “The high volatility in temperatures, particularly during the time of year when people fluctuate between heating and cooling their homes, makes the offsetting errors in res-com and power burn difficult to nail down. This week will also reflect the effects of Hurricane Florence, which could have resulted in about 100-300 MMcf/d of overestimation in our demand models due to visibility. All that in mind, higher power burn and much weaker injections in the Midwest and south-central point to a tighter week that will halt a bit of September’s momentum and increase the deficit to five-year minimums. – Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts


  • Bloomberg Survey +62
  • DJ Survey +60
  • Reuters Survey +63
  • Platts Survey +61

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +71
  • Macquarie +53
  • Raymond James +73
  • TFS +60


  • AgWxMan +55
  • Jacob Meisel +60
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +49
  • Gabe Harris +54
  • Kidduff Report +61
  • CJS Analytics +
  • Shura Li – Pira +61
  • Robry825 +
  • 125WMARION +
  • NG Junkie +63
  • Norse +61
  • Andrea Paltry +
  • Point Logic +66
  • RonH +
  • Schneider Electric +61
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +63
  • Trade Mechanics +58
  • Andy Wiessman +63


The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly


RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week


 Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week


Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.


Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts – Incl Rover and Sabine – check daily with Ron @ronh999




  • Freeport LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 2Q 2019.
  • Corpus Christi LNG moved up starting date of Train 1 to 4Q 2018.


Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output – check daily with Ron @ronh999



Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,722 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3394
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 3308

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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