EIA Reports Build of +48 Bcf in Natural Gas Inventories

The EIA reported a less than expected build of +48 Bcf in natural gas storage this week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures closed the week around 2.94 btu and haven’t ventured far away. Meanwhile Mexican exports are hitting a record high. 

The EIA reported a less than expected build of +48 Bcf in natural gas storage this week. Prompt Henry Hub Futures closed the week around 2.94 btu and haven’t ventured far away. Meanwhile Mexican exports are hitting a record high. 

us natgasl locations

From here weather models are key on the longevity of the heating season. The focus will continue on Sabine Pass and Mexico and perhaps LNG exports given Trade Wars are the overhang du jour. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.

EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 8/16/18

  • Via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Thursday August 23 2018 10:30 ET

Market Expectations

  • Actual +48 Bcf  Prior  +33 Bcf
  • Consensus Forecast  +50 Bcf
  • Cons. Range: +43 to +55 Bcf
  • EIA swap: +49 to +50 @ CT 15.13

Last Week’s Report +33 Bcf #TCNG

EIA Storage Report

Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

MW NG W 8 18 18

Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)

Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT) via RonH Data ‏@ronh999

  

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

U.S. Natural Gas Use By State

++Charts via RonH @RonH999

Platts Analytics (Bentek) Models 

Bentek Models

  • Bentek S/D Model:  +55 Bcf
  • Bentek Flow Model: +54 Bcf

“An injection of 54 Bcf would mark the first time the weekly build surpassed the five-year average since the end of June. Strong production growth from the Northeast and Texas only offset about one-third of the drop in power burn, leading to an extra 21 Bcf in the ground week on week.” …… “The salt dome sample withdrew significantly less gas week on week, flipping the overall sample from a net withdrawal of 4 Bcf to a net-injection of 3.8 Bcf. Power burn dropped around 8 Bcf for the approximate cell regions, split evenly between Texas and the Southeast. Despite the drop in power burn, regional errors are forecast to remain relatively in line week on week, for these temperatures ranges.” – Bentek

Natural Gas Storage Forecasts

Surveys

  • Bloomberg Survey +51
  • DJ Survey +50
  • Reuters Survey +48
  • Platts Survey +52

Banks and Brokers

  • Tim Evans Citigroup +43
  • Macquarie +48
  • Raymond James +46
  • TFS +50

Analysts

  • AgWxMan +
  • Jacob Meisel +52
  • Shane Bolling +
  • Genscape +50
  • Gabe Harris +49
  • Kidduff Report +50
  • CJS Analytics +53
  • Shura Li – Pira +49
  • Robry825 +48
  • NG Junkie +
  • Norse +54
  • Andrea Paltry +51
  • Point Logic +53
  • RonH +45
  • Schneider Electric +54
  • Donnie Sharp Huntsville +48
  • Trade Mechanics +45
  • Andy Wiessman +54

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

It’s never about a single Inventory report.  It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly

      

RonH Data with ‏@ronh999

Natgas Production for the month

Natgas inventory for the week

 

 

Natural Gas pwCDD + gwHDD for EIA Report Week

Natural Gas for LNG for EIA Report Week

Natgas Pipeline Flows, Exports and Receipts

In July the US exported 29 loads from Sabine and Cove Point combined of LNG Estimated 102 Bcf. 3.29 Bcf/day. Highest for a month ever.

 

Key Pipeline Flows and Receipts – Incl Rover and Sabine – check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

  

 

Nuclear Output

Nuclear Output – check daily with Ron @ronh999

 

 

Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr

  • Current Storage Level: 2,387 Bcf
  • Storage 2016/Same Week: 3074
  • 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2926

Sources: TradersCommunity Research

From the Traders Community News Desk

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