The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of -36 Bcf this week with futures continuing to listlessly drift sideways. With cold still hanging around up East it’s around 2 weeks in the heating season.
The EIA reported a natural gas storage draw of -36 Bcf this week with futures continuing to listlessly drift sideways. With cold still hanging around up East it’s around 2 weeks in the heating season.
The last 7 week’s draws have seen natural gas futures wallowing with warmer weather modelled into the shoulder months. From here weather models are key on the longevity of the season, but does it matter? The focus will continue to Sabine Pass and Mexico in time. Technically the weekly support $2.522 is the .618 retracement of the move up from $1.611 to $3.994. For Fiboancci fans $3.50 is the .618 retracement of the move down from $3.994 to $2.522. KnovaWave notes the confluence of technicals, fundamental and herd or wave psychology. In natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report Report Date: 4/12/18
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday April 19 2018 10:30 ET
Market Expectations
- Actual – 36 Bcf Prior -19 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast – 25 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -18 to – 31 Bcf
- EIA swap: – 25 to – 26 @ CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report -19 Bcf #TCNG
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders
Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model: – 33 Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model: – 22 Bcf
Population weighted temps in the Midwest were 11 degrees below normal, and another 7 degrees below normal in the East and south-central, boosting heating demand. A withdrawal of 22 Bcf would result in a balancing item of -5 Bcf for the week, which would imply the suite of supply and demand models as a whole overestimated supply and/or underestimated demand by 0.7 Bcf/d – Bentek
Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey -25
- DJ Survey -24
- Reuters Survey -23
- Platts Survey -25
Analysts
- AgWxMan -27
- Gabe Harris -28
- Genscape -30
- Kidduff Report -19
- Shura Li – Pira -25
- Peter Marrin – SNL –
- Norse –
- Andrea Paltry -22
- Point Logic -24
- Robry825 –
- Schneider Electric -28
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville -21
- Trade Mechanics -21
- Andy Wiessman -27
Banks/Brokers
- Tim Evans Citigroup -18
- Eclipse -21
- Macquarie -28
- Raymond James -24
- TFS -27
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
It’s never about a single Inventory report. It’s the accumulation of Inventory reports that expose reality…. @BrynneKKelly
RonH Data with @ronh999
Natgas inventory vs 5yr avg is at -449 for week 15 of 2018
US natgas winter inventory withdrawal is now at 23 weeks. That is longer than recent years. Total withdrawal is 2,491.
Natgas withdrawal of 36 compared to 5yr avg of 38 injection
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level: 1,335 Bcf
- Storage 2016/Same Week: 2060
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 1710
Sources: TradersCommunity Research
From the Traders Community News Desk