The EIA reported a build of +49 Bcf of working gas in storage which continued a trend of tighter supply/demand balances, which have averaged 1.5 Bcf/d tighter than the five-year on a weather-adjusted basis. 5 of the last 7 reports have been tight by over 2 Bcf/d.
The EIA reported a build of +49 Bcf of working gas in storage which continued a trend of tighter supply/demand balances, which have averaged 1.5 Bcf/d tighter than the five-year on a weather-adjusted basis. 5 of the last 7 reports have been tight by over 2 Bcf/d.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 8/5/2021
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday 8/12//2021 10:30 a.m. ET
Market Expectations
- Actual +49 Bcf Prior +13 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast +46 Bcf
- Cons. Range: +45 to +49 Bcf
- Last Year: +115 Bcf
- 5 Year Average: +83 Bcf
Last Week’s Report +13 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level:2,776 Bcf
- Storage 2020/Same Week: 3324 Bcf
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: 2954 Bcf
Weather
Forecasts showing the hottest weather of the summer for the next several days. NatGasWeather said the Global Forecast System trended hotter overnight beginning Wednesday (Aug. 11) through Aug. 19. The European model shifted cooler, particularly for Aug. 16-19. The midday GFS then gave back a few of the cooling degree days it had gained overnight, but still was a little hotter compared with the more neutral European model.
Hurricane Season
The National Hurricane Center said over the next few months as the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season reaches its peak. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration raised the number of named storms forecast to 15-21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, up from its May prediction for 13-20 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, though its prediction of major hurricanes was unchanged.
With storms we watch Gulf of Mexico production and the impact on demand with the increasingly tight U.S. gas market. In 2020 back-to-back hurricanes in Louisiana knocked offline the Cameron LNG facility, as well as thousands of other Gulf Coast electricity customers for about a month. On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said stocks for the week ending July 30 rose 13 Bcf to 2,727 Bcf.
Renewable generation coming in well below normal
Wind capacity is up more than 15 GW versus 2020, wind utilization has been below normal over the last two months, with July wind utilization realizing around 5% below normal and setting a new five-year minimum for the month. – Reic Fell of Wood McKenzie. However, it is unlikely that wind utilization would remain that far below normal over the balance of the summer. Hydro output has averaged close to 7 average GW hours below the five-year average so far this summer, according to Fell. This is being driven by a severe western drought, which has added nearly 1 Bcf/d in gas burn relative to the five-year average.
Rigs
Baker Hughes said there were 491 active rigs total in the U.S. onshore and Gulf of Mexico (GOM), compared with 247 for the same period of 2020.
The United States raised two oil rigs and one miscellaneous rig in the onshore.
- There were 387 oil rigs working, versus 176 a year ago.
- The domestic natural gas rig count was static for the week at 103, versus 69 a year ago.
- The GOM rig count also was flat at 14.
- The United States had 449 horizontal rigs in operation, up by seven from a week earlier and from 211 a year ago.
- There also were 27 directional rigs working, down by two week/week and from 24 last year. In addition, 15 vertical rigs were in operation, off by two week/week and by 12 a year earlier.
Canada added three rigs for the week, with 156 total in operation from 47 a year ago.
In total, North America’s rig count ended the week at 647, compared with 294 in the year-ago week.
By region
- New Mexico gained one rig for the week, with 75 total in operation, .
- Oklahoma also raised another rig to 31.
- Wyoming saw three rigs added to 16.
- Texas dropped one rig to 229.
- California also lost one rig to 5
- Permian was the basin leader, with 243 rigs total, up from 122 a year ago
- Haynesville Shale had 47 in operation, which is 32 more year/year.
- Marcellus Shale’s count was at 29, compared with 25 a year-ago period.
- Eagle Ford Shale had 32 rigs working as of Friday from 11 in the year-ago week.
- Williston Basin had 19 rigs in operation, compared with 11 a year earlier.
- Oklahoma’s Cana Woodford was at 17 versus six a year ago
- Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg/Niobrara reported 12 rigs at work, from four year/year.
Comments by executives of multi-basin super independent EOG Resources Inc. mirrored those for many Lower 48 management teams.
“We’re not going to grow until the market clearly needs the barrels,” EOG President Ezra Yacob told analysts during a call Thursday. “We’re committed to staying disciplined. Currently, we want to see demand return to pre-Covid levels.”
h>
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- Option Vol
- DCOT Report
Natural Gas Market Influence Factors:
Bearish factors include
- Economic damage and reduced natural gas demand caused by the Covid pandemic,
- Warm U.S. winter that resulted in weak demand for natural gas for heating.
- Over long spec positions
Bullish factors include
- Record foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas as flows to U.S LNG export terminals on April 18 rose to a record 11.921 bcf (data from 2014) and after U.S. LNG exporters loaded a record 81 cargoes in November, breaking the previous record of 75 set January of 2020,
- Expectations that the low level of oil prices will reduce shale drilling and natural gas extraction as a by-product
- Tighter U.S. nat-gas supplies that are down -14.8% y/y and -2.6% below their 5-year average.
- High power burns
- Perception that gas supply and demand are more inelastic than ever before.
- Over short spec positions
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average
Natural Gas Quick Look
US natgas touched a 2 1/2-yr high earlier after the EIA reported a lower than expected injection of just 13 bcf, the lowest for this week since 2016. Just like Europe, stockpiles are building slower than previous years on hot weather demand
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen Aug 5
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey +
- DJ Survey +
- Reuters Survey +
- Platts Survey+
Banks and Brokers
- Macquarie+
- Cti +
- TFS +
Analysts
- AgWxMan +
- Refinitiv +
- Bart Roy +
- Genscape +
- Gabe Harris –
- WoodMac +
- Kidduff Report +
- Platts GW +
- Robry825 +
- The Pit Boss +
- Norse +
- Andrea Paltry +
- Point Logic +
- Bespoke +
- Shane Boling +
- Schneider Electric +
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
- NG Junkie –
- EBW +
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
EIA Swap Market – Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
Daily: US Natural Gas working around $4.00 and testing Tenkan as it builds a pennant The move after completing the ( C of 4 bullish scenario has played out the consolidation phase since it completed its IV ( Bull Case) last year since then a series of 3 waves. Tenkan, Kijun and 50dma support. It accelerated through previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and over the resistance at 8/8 and new highs, we are testing that break in a pennant ABC. Previous highs (flat topped triangle energy) and 8/8 and new highs underscore the structure that fed the move and is key longer term.
Weekly: Natural continues to move in a series of 3’s spitting the key 50% as Chikou rebalances. Recall the impulse wave powered from the spit of 50 wma to get over weekly Kijun and Tenkan and bounced off the 50wma. Breaking recent highs on its 3rd attempt. A series of fractals between old 38 and 50% channel, as you would expect in a seasonal commodity with weather a prime mover. Resistance is Fib/Murrey confluence.
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
Natural Gas LNG Watch
“While year-over-year net exports ran 4.0 Bcf/d higher in April and May, the increase in net exports accelerated to 6.3 Bcf/d in June and 8.4 Bcf/d month-to-date in July,” the EBW team. “Although the dramatic increase was telegraphed to the market in advance, the increase in LNG and pipeline exports to Mexico draws almost exclusively from the South Central region — placing upward pressure on Henry Hub.”
via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi
In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month.
June 2021
U.S. liquefied natural gas exports were at record high levels in the first half of 2021
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
US natural gas exports to Mexico established a new monthly record in June 2021
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
US Feb 2021 pwCDD + gwHDD were 905. That is +111 vs the long term avg.
via RonH Data @ronh999
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.
.
Natural Gas Options Structure – Volatilty (COT)
NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol
NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data @ronh999 @ole_s_hansen
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)
- For week ending Aug 3
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
- +394 longs
- -2076 shorts
- +2470 net change
- 57% net long
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk