Heading into the winter 2001 natural gas futures have bounced after a smaller draw than expected of -134 Bcf in gas storage last week and demand changes as winter takes hold. The focus is on the coronavirus effect on reopening, LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.
Heading into the end of 2020 natural gas futures have fallen hard after a smaller draw than expected of -134 Bcf in gas storage last week and demand changes as winter takes hold. The focus is on the coronavirus effect on reopening, LNG and Mexican exports and the winter outlook for the US.
Keep in mind after the wild price action that natural gas the Marcellus break-even is $2.50 and $3.50 is the Haynesville break-even. Both those levels were also impulse exhaustions.
EIA’s Weekly Gas Storage Report. Report Date: 1/7/2021
- Via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday 1/14/2021 10:30 a.m. ET
Market Expectations
- Actual – 134 Bcf Prior -130 Bcf
- Consensus Forecast – 127 Bcf
- Cons. Range: -122 to -128 Bcf
- EIA swap: -123 to -124CT 15.13
Last Week’s Report -114 Bcf #TCNG
Current Storage Level vs. Last Year; 5-Yr
- Current Storage Level:3.955 Bcf
- Storage 2018/Same Week: +285 Bcf higher than
- 5Yr Avg/Same Week: +289 Bcf higher than
TradersCommunity Natural Gas Outlook Format
- EIA Natural Gas Storage Forecast and Analysis
- LNG and Export Warch
- Natural Gas Import Watch
- Natural Gas Demand Watch
- Nuke Watch
- Natural Gas Futures Technical Analysis
- Option Vol
- DCOT Report
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
Near Record Warm Gulf of Mexico Water temperatures are running 1-3+ degrees above average
Natural Gas Quick Look
EIA Natural Gas Storage Watch
US Natural Gas Weekly Storage Forecasts
Surveys
- Bloomberg Survey -129
- DJ Survey +
- Reuters Survey -127
- Platts Survey+
Banks and Brokers
- Macquarie+
- Cti +
- TFS +
Analysts
- AgWxMan +
- Refinitiv +
- Bart Roy –
- Genscape +
- Gabe Harris –
- WoodMac +
- Kidduff Report +
- Platts GW +
- Robry825 +
- The Pit Boss –
- Norse +
- Andrea Paltry -129
- Point Logic +
- Bespoke +
- Shane Boling +
- Schneider Electric +
- Donnie Sharp Huntsville +
- NG Junkie –
- EBW +
NB: Forecasts uploaded when provided to TradersCommunity.com – some weeks they may not made available.
Platts Anaylitics Bentek Models
- Bentek S/D Model +Bcf
- Bentek Flow Model:+Bcf
“” – Platts (Bentek)
EIA Swap Market – Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
US Natural Gas continues to work the lows that were either (5) or (iii) of (5). After a b or ii down we have bounced over tenkan and Kijun into cloud. Key is that 3 wave low. Above top of cloud. So far consistent failed breaks despite the strength of spitting the previous low and -2/8 with an island reversal to test the Kijun and downtrend line but fell back to Tenkan The big question is was that a completed move down there or a 3? Support at cloud.
Natty continues in large sideways pattern between weekly kijun and tenkan as they suppress. Above Cloud and 50wma. Support is downward channel and previous low. Talking fractals, remember the tenkan/kijun kiss of death brought it down from the $2 range. Much work here churning away.
Natural Gas Storage Analysis
via RonH Data @ronh999
via Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
Natural Gas Production Watch
Natural Gas LNG Watch
via Criterion @Pipelineflows, RonH Data @ronh999
Natural Gas feed to LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Elba Island, Cove Point & Corpus Christi
ALERT Freeport set new high of 2.04 Bcf on Oct 3.
In July 2020, US LNG facilities averaged 3.22 Bcf/day natgas inflow and 3.00 Bcf/day of LNG exports loaded on tankers. Lowest since Oct 2018. via https://public.tableau.com/profile/ron.h8
++Charts via RonH @RonH999 – Visit Ron for daily updates
Natgas inflow and LNG Exported by US LNG facilities Sabine Pass, Cameron, Cove Point & Corpus Christi avg Bcf/day/month. December 2020
US LNG exports by month. Dec was a new high at 89 loads and an estimated 304.3 Bcf.
For Full LNG Outlook Please Visit ourLNG Weekly Here
Natural Gas Mexican Exports Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Canada Import Watch
via RonH Energy
Natural Gas Demand Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
Demand By Sector – July 2020 via EIA
For Greater Depth Visit our Natural Gas Demand Monitor Here
US Feb Natural Gas demand by category.
Visit For Daily Updates ++Charts via RonH @RonH999
Natural Gas Nuke Watch
via RonH Data @ronh999
ALERT Three Mile Island nuclear shut down permanently on Friday afternoon 9/292019. US nuclear output for Sep 23 88,466.6 MW. This is -532.8 MW vs 5yr avg.
.
Natural Gas Options Structure – Volatilty (COT)
NYMEX ON NATURAL GAS OPTIONS CommodityVol.com @CommodityImpVol
NYMEX ON = NATURAL GAS OPTIONS (Live Link)
Natural Gas Futures Committment of Traders (COT)
Money managers sold 50,937 contracts of natural gas in the week ended June 4, taking the largest net short position since March of 2016
Disaggregated Committment of Traders (DCOT)via RonH Data @ronh999 @ole_s_hansen
Week Ended September 29, 2000 via Ole Hansen
Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
COT on oil in wk to Sept 29. Sellers returned following a short-lived short covering rally. Funds cut their combined net long by 6% to 402k with #WTI (-6% to 305k lots) seeing the biggest reduction on a combination of long liquidation and fresh short selling.
COT on Commodities in wk to Sept 29 saw lower prices across all sectors. In response to this funds reduced bullish bets on #oil, #gold, #copper, #wheat and #coffee while adding more length in #corn, #soybeans and #sugar
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Natural Gas DCOT futures only managed money traders WoW change
(Note at NG peak Highest Longs Ever 87% (since 2006) Lowest Longs 2020 24%)
- For week ending Dec 29
- Natgas DCOT futures only managed money traders
- WoW change +993
- Longs +15 031
- Shorts -14 038
- Net Long 54% Week Prior 55%
- (Recent high net long 69%)
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Sources: TradersCommunity Research, RonH Energy, The Fundamental Edge, Knovawave
From the Traders Community Research Desk