EIA forecast in the June STEO that U.S. LNG exports will average 11.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during 2Q22 and 3Q22 and 11.9 Bcf/d for all of 2022, a 22% increase from 2021. The agency cited additional U.S. LNG export capacity that has come online. Even before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia since the end of 2021, the EU and the UK imported record-high LNG volumes because of low natural gas inventories. Europe has become the main destination for U.S. LNG exports and accounted for 74% of total U.S. LNG exports during the first four months of 2022.
EIA forecast LNG exports will average 12.6 Bcf/d in 2023. Expected growth in LNG exports in 2023 results from LNG export terminals that came online in mid-2022 being operational for the whole year in 2023.
Highlights
- EIA estimate U.S. LNG exports averaged 11.6 Bcf/d in May, which was 1.5 Bcf/d higher than last year and 0.2 Bcf/d higher than the average from January through April 2022.
- EIA forecast U.S. LNG exports will average 11.7 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) during 2Q22 and 3Q22 and 11.9 Bcf/d for all of 2022, a 22% increase from 2021
- High exports are being supported by high international LNG prices, as well as by additional export capacity created by a new U.S. LNG export facility, Calcasieu Pass LNG, which continues to ramp up exports.
- EIA sees 2023 US natural gas consumption at 85.15 bcfd in the June STEO report, down from a forecast 85.28 bcfd in May.
- EIA sees 2022 US natural gas consumption at 85.33 bcfd in the June STEO report, down from a forecast 85.73 bcfd in May.
The June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty resulting from a variety of factors, including Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Global macroeconomic assumptions in STEO are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 3.1% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023, compared with growth of 6.0% in 2021. A range of potential macroeconomic outcomes could affect energy markets in the forecast period. Factors driving energy supply uncertainty include how sanctions affect Russia’s oil production, the production decisions of OPEC+, and the rate at which U.S. oil and natural gas producers increase drilling.
Calcasieu Pass, seventh U.S. liquefied natural gas export terminal began production
On March 1, Calcasieu Pass loaded and shipped its first LNG cargo, often called a commissioning cargo, aboard the tanker Yiannis, chartered by JERA Global Markets, which delivered the LNG to ports in the Netherlands and France. Calcasieu Pass loaded its first cargo 30 months after its final investment decision, which was the shortest amount of time of all the LNG export projects in the United States. As of April 27, Calcasieu Pass has shipped nine cargoes, according to Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
The EIA in Today in Energy on Calcasieu Pass liquefied natural gas:
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has authorized Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC, (Venture Global)—the developer of the Calcasieu Pass liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminal—to commission the first six of nine liquefaction blocks. Each block contains two liquefaction systems called trains. The first authorization, issued in November 2021, was one of the initial steps toward full commercial service.
Calcasieu Pass is a 1.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) liquefaction facility located in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. Similar to nearby LNG terminals Sabine Pass and Cameron, Calcasieu Pass will export LNG through the Calcasieu Ship Channel located on the Gulf of Mexico. Calcasieu Pass is the seventh U.S. LNG liquefaction export facility to begin producing LNG since 2016.
In addition to 18 mid-scale liquefaction trains, the Calcasieu Pass facility includes an onsite natural gas-fired plant to generate electricity for the facility’s operations, three pre-treatment trains, two LNG storage tanks (with a capacity of 4.4 Bcf each), and two shipping berths capable of loading LNG vessels with carrying capacities of up to 185,000 cubic meters (4 Bcf). The Calcasieu Pass terminal receives its feedgas through Venture Global’s 24-mile, 42-inch diameter TransCameron Pipeline, which has interconnections with the ANR, TETCO, and Bridgeline pipelines.
Since November 2021, Venture Global has received FERC approval to commission Blocks 2–6, most recently on March 30, 2022. Natural gas deliveries to the terminal have increased throughout 2022, averaging approximately 0.7 Bcf/d in April, according to PointLogic. With only three blocks left to authorize for commissioning and given the pace at which the terminal has received FERC approvals to commission blocks, Calcasieu Pass could reach its full LNG production capacity of 1.3 Bcf/d baseload (1.6 Bcf/d peak) by the third quarter of this year.
Source: EIA
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