ECB raised key rates by 75 bps in its October monetary policy decision following a 75-bps rate hike in September, and matching expectations from most analysts. Policymakers also said expects to raise interest rates further, to ensure the timely return of 2% inflation target. Will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio. At the same time, the ECB changed the terms and conditions of the third series of TLTRO III, by adjusting the interest rates applicable from 23 November 2022 and offering banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.
ECB Monetary Policy Decision 27 October 2022
- Main refinancing rate 2.00% vs 2.00% expected Prior 1.25
- Deposit facility rate Deposit facility rate 1.50% vs 1.50% expected Prior 0.75%
- Marginal lending facility 2.25% Prior 1.50%
- Expects to raise interest rates further, to ensure the timely return of 2% inflation target
- Inflation remains far too high and will stay above the target for an extended period
- TLTRO terms and conditions have been recalibrated (changes to be announced at 1345 GMT)
- Will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio
ECB Projections (Sept Meeting)
ECB staff forecasts for inflation:
- 2022 8.1% vs 6.8% prior
- 2023 5.5% vs 3.5% prior
- 2024 2.3% vs 2.1% prior
ECB staff forecasts for GDP:
- 2022 3.1% vs 2.8% prior
- 2023 0.9% vs 2.1% prior
- 2024 1.9% vs 2.1% prior
NB LTRO (Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations) is best described as a long term loan to banks to increase loan creation. The banks lend above a specified benchmark and borrow from the ECB at a negative rate. This will provide an incentive for the banks to lend and thus increase private spending in the economy. That’s the theory clearly has not been a great success so far.
Full Statement by the ECB 27 October 2022
The Governing Council today decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points. With this third major policy rate increase in a row, the Governing Council has made substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The Governing Council took today’s decision, and expects to raise interest rates further, to ensure the timely return of inflation to its 2% medium-term inflation target. The Governing Council will base the future policy rate path on the evolving outlook for inflation and the economy, following its meeting-by-meeting approach.
Inflation remains far too high and will stay above the target for an extended period. In September, euro area inflation reached 9.9%. In recent months, soaring energy and food prices, supply bottlenecks and the post-pandemic recovery in demand have led to a broadening of price pressures and an increase in inflation. The Governing Council’s monetary policy is aimed at reducing support for demand and guarding against the risk of a persistent upward shift in inflation expectations.
The Governing Council also decided to change the terms and conditions of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III). During the acute phase of the pandemic, this instrument played a key role in countering downside risks to price stability. Today, in view of the unexpected and extraordinary rise in inflation, it needs to be recalibrated to ensure that it is consistent with the broader monetary policy normalisation process and to reinforce the transmission of policy rate increases to bank lending conditions. The Governing Council therefore decided to adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTRO III from 23 November 2022 and to offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates.
Finally, in order to align the remuneration of minimum reserves held by credit institutions with the Eurosystem more closely with money market conditions, the Governing Council decided to set the remuneration of minimum reserves at the ECB’s deposit facility rate.
The details of the changes to the TLTRO III terms and conditions are described in a separate press release to be published at 15:45 CET. Another technical press release, detailing the change to the remuneration of minimum reserves, will also be published at 15:45 CET.
Key ECB interest rates
The Governing Council decided to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 75 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 2.00%, 2.25% and 1.50% respectively, with effect from 2 November 2022.
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
The Governing Council intends to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the APP for an extended period of time past the date when it started raising the key ECB interest rates and, in any case, for as long as necessary to maintain ample liquidity conditions and an appropriate monetary policy stance.
As concerns the PEPP, the Governing Council intends to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the programme until at least the end of 2024. In any case, the future roll-off of the PEPP portfolio will be managed to avoid interference with the appropriate monetary policy stance.
The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.
The Governing Council decided to adjust the interest rates applicable to TLTRO III. From 23 November 2022 until the maturity date or early repayment date of each respective outstanding TLTRO III operation, the interest rate on TLTRO III operations will be indexed to the average applicable key ECB interest rates over this period. The Governing Council also decided to offer banks additional voluntary early repayment dates. In any case, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations are contributing to its monetary policy stance.
The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation stabilises at its 2% target over the medium term. The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 14:45 CET today.
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Source: European Central Bank
From The TradersCommunity Research Desk