The US economy has recovered strongly in the third quarter, growing at an annualized 3.2% on quarter in Q3 2022, ahead of the second estimate and consensus 2.9%. Significantly higher than the advance estimate +2.6% and Q2 GDP of -0.6%. The report ended a two-quarter streak of negative GDP prints. The report suggests the economy was resilient held in the third quarter to rising interest rates and why the Fed continued to raise rates aggressively in the third quarter.
The American consumer once again supported growth, consumer spending rose more than anticipated at 2.3% vs 1.7% in the second estimate. Net trade was the biggest positive contribution to growth (2.86% vs 2.93% in the second estimate).
USA Q3 2022 GDP (Final)
The rise of 3.2 percent follows the 0.2 percent and 0.6 percent contractions respectively in the first two quarters of 2022.
“The increase in real GDP for the third quarter reflected increases in exports, consumer spending, nonresidential fixed investment, state and local government spending, and federal government spending, that were partly offset by decreases in residential fixed investment and private inventory investment. Imports decreased.
The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods and services. Within exports of goods, the leading contributors to the increase were industrial supplies and materials (notably nondurable goods), “other” exports of goods, and nonautomotive capital goods. Within exports of services, the increase was led by “other” business services and travel.”
- Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in the third quarter (consensus 2.9%).
- Second estimate was +2.9%
- Advance estimate was +2.6
The US gross domestic product price index, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services produced, increased 4.4% on quarter in the third quarter of 2022 to a record high of 128.24 points.
- The GDP Price Deflator, meanwhile, was revised up to 4.4% (consensus 4.3%) from 4.3% from 9.0% in the second quarter
- Personal consumption expenditures were up 2.3% versus the second estimate of 1.7% and added 1.54 percentage points to growth versus 1.18 percentage points in the second estimate. Spending on goods was down 0.4% versus the second estimate of -0.2% while spending on services was up 3.7% versus the second estimate of 2.7%.
- Gross private domestic investment was down 9.6% versus the second estimate of down 9.1% and subtracted 1.80 percentage points from growth versus 1.71 percentage points in the second estimate.
- Net exports added 2.86 percentage points to growth versus 2.93 percentage points in the second estimate. Exports increased 14.6% versus 15.3% in the second estimate and imports decreased 7.3%, unchanged from the second estimate.
- Government spending increased 3.7% versus 3.0% in the second estimate, and added 0.65 percentage points to growth versus 0.53 percentage points in the second estimate.
- The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, dropped to 2.7% from 2.8% in the second estimate. The Q2 rate was 3.2%.
- The PCE Price Index held steady at 4.3% while the core PCE Price Index increased to 4.7% from 4.6% in the second estimate.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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