Chicago Economic Activity Surprises with ISM Sharp Jump into Growth in November

The Chicago Business Barometer or Chicago PMI jumped unexpectantly to 55.8 in November well above consensus 45.0 and up from 44.0 in October. The latest data was the first month of growth in Chicago’s economic activity since August 2022 which had seen a contraction in business activity in the Chicago region until this month. Below the 50 threshold indicates economic contraction. The surprise came as high interest rates and inflation had continued to drag down the US manufacturing sector, however we have been seeing some underlying improvement.

The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional manufacturing indices before the national ISM manufacturing data for November is released.

US Factory Worker

United States Chicago PMI August 2023

United States Chicago PMI
United States Chicago PMI

The Chicago PMI (ISM-Chicago Business Barometer) measures the performance of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector in the Chicago region. The Index is computed from five weighted raw indexes: Production (0.25), New Orders (0.35), Order Backlog (0.15), Employment (0.10), and Supplier Deliveries (0.15) and then seasonally adjusted to support month-to-month comparisons.

A reading above 50 indicates an expansion; below 50 represents a contraction, while 50 indicates no change. Chicago PMI is released one day before the ISM Manufacturing Index. This page provides the latest reported value for – United States Chicago PMI – plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago PMI – actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases – was last updated on July of 2019.

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