Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Overload of Fed, ECB and BoE Speeches

The past week went as expected for central bank watchers as far as monetary policy decisions went, however Fed Chair Powell in his speech at the IMF shook the market up with regards to higher rates. The RBA hiked, Banxico held, Peru as expected cut rates. Poland’s central bank unexpectedly halted its easing cycle. Data risk is focused on global inflation and inflation expectations. In the week ahead eyes will be on what looks like an overload of Fed. BoE and ECB Governor speeches again around key data releases. The only rate decision comes from the Philippines central bank, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) who resumed monetary tightening following an emergency meeting three weeks ago lifting the key rate to 6.5%.

The Treasury market continues to respond to hot geopolitical risk, hotter inflation, greater supply and credit risk. Curve shapes are being bent as the US economy continues to grow much faster than the non-inflationary speed limit and is outpacing many other major industrialized economies.

Central Bank Weekly Analysis and Outlook – Banker dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate.

Central bank monetary policy decisions and market activity interest rate decisions can have a dominant effect on financial markets, fiscal policy and geopolitics. We keep an eye on key banker developments, what they mean and what is ahead.

In the Week Ahead

In the week ahead we have

  • The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) who resumed monetary tightening following an emergency meeting three weeks ago, lifting the key rate to 6.5%. Nalin Chutchotitham, Citi’s economist covering the Philippines said in a commentary that they see the BSP standing pat during the policy meeting next week, after going for an off-cycle rate hike of 0.25 percentage point that brought the benchmark interest rate to 6.5 percent. Still, Nalin said that “[s]ome risks of another hike remain as the BSP aims to better anchor inflation expectations.” She noted that the BSP reiterated preparedness for follow-through monetary policy action — as necessary — to prevent additional second-round effects. “(W)e believe Q3 GDP (third-quarter gross domestic product) data would help the BSP decide,” Nali said. “In our base case, we think the BSP could wait-and-see for a bit, after having brought forward its rate hike to October and that real policy rate is in a restrictive zone,” she added.

Previews come from Scotiabank and other sources.

To say central bankers, have issues is an understatement. Already grappling with the quickest inflation in decades they now have these decisions to make, forcefully raise borrowing costs to defend currencies and risk hurting growth, spend reserves that took years to build to intervene in foreign exchange markets, or simply stand aside and let the market play out.

Central Bank Highlights This Past Week:

Most of the G10 central banks may complete their rate hike cycles around the middle of the year or earlier, the unwinding of central bank balance sheets may continue longer, depending on the damage done.

This week’s central bank main events included:

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia announced a +25bp interest rate hike, as widely expected by analysts after last month’s inflation reports. It is the RBA’s 13th cash rate hike since they began this hiking cycle in May of 2022.
  • Poland’s central bank unexpectedly halted its easing cycle in the first decision since the country’s pro-European opposition, which has been critical of Governor Adam Glapinski, secured a majority in last month’s election. The move to keep the main interest rate at 5.75% defied expectations from a majority of economists, who predicted a third consecutive cut, and buoyed the zloty. It came as declining inflation remains above target and the opposition under Donald Tusk prepares to take power after eight years of nationalist rule.

Eyes on the Bond Market

US Bond Watch

U.S. Treasuries U.S. Treasuries finished the week mixed with the long bond rebounding from Thursday’s slide after its woeful auction Thursday. The offering tailed by a record 5.3 bps with the lowest bid-to-cover ratio in nearly two years and lowest indirect takedown in two years. The long bond yield settled within a basis point of its 50-day moving average (4.728%). Shorter tenors extended this week’s show of relative weakness. Reports about a ransomware attack that crippled the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s access to the U.S. Treasury market on Thursday was just another worry for investors. This week’s underperformance in shorter tenors compressed the 2s10s spread by 12 bps to -42 bps. Crude oil lost another $3.57, or 4.4% this week, while the U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.8% this week.

Yield Watch


  • 2-yr: +4 bps to 5.05% (+19 bps for the week)
  • 3-yr: +5 bps to 4.82% (+21 bps for the week)
  • 5-yr: +3 bps to 4.67% (+18 bps for the week)
  • 10-yr: UNCH at 4.63% (+7 bps for the week)
  • 30-yr: -4 bps to 4.73% (+2 bps for the week)

Highlights – Federal Reserve

  • Federal Reserve Credit declined $38.8bn last week to $7.822 TN.
  • Fed Credit was down $1.079 TN from the June 22nd, 2022, peak.
  • Over the past 217 weeks, Fed Credit expanded $4.095 TN, or 110%.
  • Fed Credit inflated $5.011 TN, or 178%, over the past 574 weeks.
  • Fed holdings for foreign owners of Treasury, Agency Debt fell $7.6bn last week to $3.426 TN.
  • “Custody holdings” were up $88bn, or 2.6%, y-o-y.

Fed 2023 Bank Stress Tests.

Busy Central Bank Week Ahead:

This Week’s Interest Rate Announcements (Time E.T.)

Monday, November 13, 2023

  • None Seen

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

  • None Seen

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

  • None Seen

Thursday, November 16, 2023

  • 02:00 Philippines Interest Rate Decision

Friday, November 17, 2023

  • None Seen

This Week’s Central Bank Speeches, Meetings (Time E.T.)

Monday, November 13, 2023

  • 03:15 ECB’s De Guindos Speaks
  • 06:55 GBP BoE Breeden Speaks
  • 08:50 USD Fed Governor Cook Speaks

Tuesday, November 14, 2023

  • 02:45 SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks
  • 02:45 German Buba Mauderer Speaks
  • 03:00 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 03:00 ECB’s Lane Speaks
  • 03:45 ECB’s Enria Speaks
  • 04:30 BoC Deputy Governor Gravelle Speaks
  • 05:30 Fed Governor Jefferson Speaks
  • 07:00 BoE MPC Member Dhingra Speaks
  • 08:15 ECB’s Elderson Speaks
  • 08:45 BoE MPC Member Pill Speaks
  • 12:45 Fed Goolsbee Speaks

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

  • 09:30 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
  • 13:00 MPC Member Haskel Speaks

Thursday, November 9, 2023

  • 02:00 German Buba Wuermeling Speaks
  • 02:00 Philippines Interest Rate Decision
  • 06:00 Fed Governor Cook Speaks
  • 06:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
  • 07:10 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
  • 07:10 ECB’s Enria Speaks
  • 09:25 FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 10:00 Fed Governor Kroszner Speaks
  • 10:30 Fed Waller Speaks
  • 10:35 Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr Speaks
  • 10:45 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
  • 12:00 FOMC Member Mester Speaks
  • 15:30 Fed’s Balance Sheet
  • 15:30 Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks

Friday, November 17, 2023

  • 03:30 President Lagarde Speaks
  • 08:00 German Buba President Nagel Speaks
  • 08:10 MPC Member Ramsden Speaks
  • 09:45 Fed Goolsbee Speaks
  • 10:00 FOMC Member Daly Speaks

Federal Reserve FOMC Schedule 2023

The Fed with a Strong US Dollar

The strong dollar is likely to negatively affect the US economic outlook and could alter the Federal Reserve terminal interest rate, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said. Just 28% saw the currency strength as unlikely to have any impact.

Latest Key Central Bank Decisions, Reports Archive


Reserve Bank of Australia Raises Rates to Ten Year High 4.35%, Inflation Pressures Cited

Bank of England Maintains Interest Rates at 5.25%, Emphasis on Cuts a Long Way Off

Brazil Central Bank Deliver Third 50bps Rate Cut in a Row to 12.25%

Federal Reserve Kept Rates Unchanged; Eases Financial Conditions

Yen Falls After Bank of Japan Changes Language Around 1% 10yr JGB Cap BUT No 1.5% Extension


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Sources: TC WSJ Bloomberg Scotia Bank

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