
Warsh Talks Tough. The Curve Talks Back.
Markets rarely price tomorrow’s risks until tomorrow arrives.
Market Structure — Week at a Glance
Week ending August 31, 2026
FOMO Battles Long-End Stress
🧭THE BIG PICTURE
This Week’s Market System
Warsh shifts the front end, the long end refuses to fully confirm the inflation panic, gold/Bitcoin get hit, wheat surges, and wages/consumer pressure complicate the policy story.
The week can be viewed in two parts: before and after the Fed Chair’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech. The key question is whether the market overreacted to tough rhetoric. Was there anything truly new, given that he still wants more evidence of disinflation and sees little weakness in the labor market? One important area to watch is nominal wage growth, which continues to slow and is negative in real terms when measured against PCE inflation. That should help ease concerns about second-round price pressures. Combined with less favorable consumer dynamics, these factors should not be lost on Chair Warsh.


Algos grabbed these headlines, how do you think the market would react, the question is what lies beyond the headline?
- “Hawkish Kevin Warsh Hints Fed Will Raise Rates if Inflation Does Not Fall Soon.”
- “Warsh Jackson Hole Speech Most Hawkish Since 2009 as Yields Jump.”
- “Kevin Warsh: the Hawk at Jackson Hole.”
- “Wall Street Piles on Rate-Hike Bets as Warsh Renews Hawking Tone.”
- “Warsh Succeeds at Jackson Hole – Convincingly Hawkish.”
- “Bond Traders Buy Warsh’s Tough Talk on Inflation, for Now.”
- “Fed Chair Warsh Leans Hawkish in Jackson Hole”
Warsh’s speech tilted the Fed tightening bias in the favor of a hike in September and the potential for another hike by the end of the year. The rates market went from pricing 36% probability of a rate increase at the September 16th meeting to 58%, with odds for a hike by October 28th jumping to 92% (from 62%). Traders now see an 89% chance of a December increase, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
US stocks with small-cap stocks leading the declines, the Russell 2000 down the most Friday. For the week; Nasdaq Composite the strongest, up 0.85%; Dow industrial average was up 0.53%, S&P 500 up 0.49%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.43% and Russell 2000 the weakest down -1.50%
The. big earnings for the week came from Nvidia; up 8.74% after the better earnings but on Warsh giving back -4.57% at $217.55 to be up 1.32% for the week well short of the high for the week at $230.47 just under the all-time high $236.54.
Total money market fund assets (MMFA) added $6.1 billion last week at $7.935 TN. MMFA were up $728 billion, or 10.1%, y-o-y – having ballooned a historic $3.350 TN, or 73%, since October 26, 2022.
Not enough chaos? War Back on Sunday Night
Late Sunday the U.S. struck Iranian launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz today after officials said the IRGC was preparing to deploy sea mines. Iran then retaliated with ballistic missiles at two U.S. bases in Jordan. Iran retaliated launching ballistic missiles to the strait.
Oil immediately responded: Brent jumped about 2.5% to $90.32 and WTI about 2.4% to $85.41. Taking our Friday WTI close from “low-$80s resilient” toward a fresh test of the downtrend.
Expect more chaos as this week marks just 60 days before the U.S. election, which some analysts indicate is the beginning of the window when investment managers start making election-related portfolio changes.
📊 Bonds: Warsh Rocks The Boat
The question is whether it can keep dancing while the Fed, the long end, and funding markets turn up the volume.
Warsh sounded hawkish. The front end believed him. The long end was considerably less convinced.
Warsh’s ‘Hawkish’ Wording
“While this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” Warsh said. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do. That’s our job… our mandate… and our charge to keep.”
“To get policy right, we also need to get the relationship right between financial markets and the central bank. The Fed needs clear market signals, as unfiltered as possible… from market internals… the level and change in asset prices across sectors… the prices and trading volumes of Treasury securities… the foreign exchange value of the dollar… the cost and availability of credit… and the price of a broad set of commodities. These and other indicators should inform the Fed’s near-term outlook on economic activity and inflation throughout the business cycle. They should also reveal the state of broader financial conditions… and the risks and uncertainties in the financial cycle. At the same time, market participants themselves should be tracking real information across the economy. They should draw their own conclusions; form their own expectations of output, employment, and inflation; and stay sharply attuned to risks.”
“Money matters. It’s not fashionable these days, but my view is that money has something important to do with monetary policy. We should pay attention to money created by the central bank and money that comes from the banking and financial systems. It’s true that financial innovations and other factors alter the mechanics that link the monetary base, the velocity of money, and the broader economy. But that is scarcely a reason to ignore the ultimate effects of money on financial conditions and prices.”
“A quieter Fed, more purposeful in its communications, is better able to meet its objectives. And we can be held accountable for delivering on our remit—the only true test of our credibility. To borrow a line from General Chuck Yeager, ‘At the moment of truth, there are either reasons or results.’”
Yields Whipsaw on Warsh
The initial move on 10-year Treasury yields was to trade down to 4.65% on a hawkish Warsh, then reversed higher up to 4.73%. This was within six bps of the closing high in October 2023 before ending the week at 4.72%.
The Fed has adopted a tightening bias, but bubble-related constraints suggest it has little appetite for materially tightening financial conditions. It is also contending with the financing of trillions in Treasuries and AI-related debt, along with the risks that come with it. Despite the commentary from Wall Street Journal favorites and self-appointed gurus, tightening monetary policy is no easy task in a rising global yield environment.
U.S. Treasury yields — Weekly change/ year to date
- Three-month Treasury bill rates ended the week at 3.7181%.
- Two-year +11 bps to 4.34% (up 87bps y-t-d).
- Five-year +5 bps to 4.48% (up 75bps).
- Ten-year -2 bps to 4.72% (up 55bps).
- Thirty-year -6 bps to 5.21% (up 37bps).
- Benchmark Fannie Mae MBS yields were unchanged at 5.72% (up 68bps).
That is a pretty classic hawkish flattening. The market marked up the expected policy rate, but it did not send the long end exploding higher on some renewed inflation-regime panic
The long end remains central to our thesis. A market can absorb higher yields for longer than many expect when liquidity is ample, credit spreads are tight, and equity momentum is strong. But when the long end rises at the same time as speculative positioning becomes extended, the system becomes more fragile. Higher yields do not have to matter every day. They only have to matter when the market starts caring again.
Crude oil’s climb toward $90 added another inflationary input after gaining more than $15 per barrel during July.
US 10-Year Yield: Oil and Inflation Overpower Safe-Haven Demand

The 10-year yield broke above 4.70% as higher oil prices, persistent inflation and rising term premium outweighed conventional safe-haven Treasury demand. A sustained break through 4.80% would place the 5.00% region back in view.
US 30-Year Yield: Triple-Top Breakout Reaches a Near 20-Year High

NB: “The Bessent Put — Intervention” buybacks target liquidity in older securities; they’re not QE or an announced yield ceiling.
Fragile bond markets face unrelenting massive supply.
This isn’t 2016 when bond markets didn’t care about inflation and issuance. We now have trade frictions, geopolitical risk, wider deficits, higher bond issuance and unsettling attacks on federal agencies and the Fed. The jolt higher in borrowing costs comes as the US debt pile has swollen past $40tn, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio towards an all-time high.
That appears consistent with Bessent’s message: address Treasury-market liquidity through Treasury operations, while leaving the Fed to concentrate on inflation and monetary policy.
- “The US’s national debt has hit a record $40tn as borrowing rises at a historic pace, fueling investor concerns about the state of America’s public finances despite Donald Trump’s vow to bring spending under control
- It has grown by $3tn over the past year, its fastest ever pace outside the pandemic era, FT calculations show.
- ‘It’s that gigantic flashing ‘check engine’ light,’ said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget think-tank America’s national debt has surged over the past two decades, rising from less than $6tn (about $12tn in 2026 dollar terms) at the turn of the century as vast public spending during the financial crisis and Covid pandemic exacerbated yawning budget deficits.” August 19 – Financial Times (Myles McCormick and Kate Duguid)
- Interest expense on Treasury Debt rose to $118 billion last month, second only to the $251 billion of expenditures at the Department of Health and Human Services (i.e., Medicare and Medicaid). Department of Defense expenditures came in at $86 billion. Interest expense was $40 billion in July 2019. Through 10 months of the 2026 fiscal year, debt service of $1.170 TN ran 14.5% ahead of comparable 2025. The full-year deficit is poised to exceed $2.1 TN (6.5% of GDP), which would be 17% ahead of last year.
- The U.S. federal budget deficit for July jumped to $432 billion, a record for the month, as higher outlays and more negative tariff revenues also brought the 2026 fiscal-year-to-date budget gap to $1.799 trillion, topping the full fiscal 2025 deficit with two months left in the fiscal year and was the largest monthly deficit since March 2021, when it hit $660 billion due to COVID-19 relief program spending. There have been only two other higher monthly deficits: $864 billion in June 2020 and $738 billion in April 2020
Yields are a Global Threat
- Italian 10-year yields +2 bps to 4.10% (up 55bps y-t-d).
- Greek 10-year yields -1 bps to 3.95% (up 51bps).
- Spain’s 10-year yields +2 bps to 3.73% (up 44bps).
- German bund yields +2 bps to 3.28% (up 42bps).
- French yields -1 bps to 4.13% (up 56bps).
- The French to German 10-year bond spread narrowed ~3 to 85 bps.
- U.K. 10-year gilt yields were unchanged at 5.06% (up 58bps).
Bond Volatility Still Refuses to Confirm the Stress.
The MOVE (bond volatility) Index closed at 70.97 Friday DOWN from last week’s 73.40, not making a lot of sense with a backdrop of a 5-yr avg. 99.

Markets trading with the view that Secretary Bessent and Chair Warsh have the old “PPT” ready to rock and roll? The Treasury and Fed won’t tolerate bond or repo market instability, a tough ask in times of extreme indebtedness and leverage during acute geopolitical uncertainty.
📊 Risk: Wall Street playing with fire?
Hyperscalers’ bonds underperforming on almost every metric.
Old debt: cheap and locked.
New/refinancing debt: increasingly expensive.
Credit market: demanding more compensation.
As Chuck Prince famously said in July 2007:
“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
Why It Matters
- Term premium continues to rise
- Treasury supply remains persistent
- Global demand is less reliable
The long end is being set by the market — not anchored by policy.
The Bigger Shift
- Meanwhile global rates volatility is no longer isolated to the Fed. The synchronized repricing in Treasuries, Gilts and JGBs suggests sovereign duration itself is becoming the central macro story.
- That is a major shift.
The Tension
- Rates are tightening
- Carry remains loose
Structure
- Higher lows remain intact.
- Yields continue to compress near resistance, reinforcing that pressure is building
📈 EQUITIES — Still No Fear?
What Happened
The long bond is flashing stress. Gold and Bitcoin remain elevated after powerful runs but were hit hard on Warsh. Carry remains active. Oil is advancing. Semiconductors are correcting from speculative excess. Volatility is still only 15.
For the week:
- Dow industrial average +0.53%
- S&P 500 +0.49%
- Nasdaq index +0.85%;
- Russell 2000 -1.50%
- Nasdaq 100 +0.43%
- The VIX Index ended the week at 14.43 down from last week’s 15.13, barely higher than 14.25 two weeks, which was the lowest close since December.
- The MOVE Index fell to just 70.97 Friday DOWN from last week’s 73.40, with a backdrop of a 5-yr avg. 99.73 despite the Treasuries Shenanigans.
- JPMorgan CDS closed at 37.89, a one-year low down from 38.22 last week, with most bank CDS ending the week near one-year lows.
SMH: Backed Off the Kimi K3 Scare Zone

Structure
The rally had evolved from recovery into speculative acceleration.
Since that first Fed cut, the broad averages surged, but the real epicenter has been semiconductors, AI infrastructure, memory, and the small group of companies perceived as bottlenecks in the AI buildout. The SMH has become the clearest expression of this historic Bubble impulse.
We ask the better question: is AI still lifting the world, or starting to crowd everything else out?
Why It Matters
AI spending remains the dominant narrative, but the credit side is beginning to matter. When Oracle CDS and CoreWeave yields move alongside SMH volatility, the market is no longer only trading earnings momentum — it is starting to price funding risk.
🛢 Commodities; Wheat Breaks Out — War Returns to the Breadbasket
Wheat Prices Higher +12.5% for the week and +51% YTD
Whilst gold and oil pulled back our eyes turned to grains. Wheat surged another 12.5% (up 51% YTD), and Corn jumped 5.8% (up 16%).
The grains complex adding more fuel to the inflation fire. Why? Escalating attacks around Black Sea grain infrastructure have disrupted Russian/Ukrainian exports, while European drought is adding supply pressure. Chicago wheat hit a three-year high last week.
Wheat has broken the multi-year downtrend that followed the 2022 invasion spike as Black Sea disruption, weather and tighter global supply routes return food security to the macro picture. WEAT has now broken its own long-term downtrend, giving investors a liquid expression of the underlying futures move.


Why It Matters
Warsh says inflation is too high → dollar jumps → gold/oil sell off.
Meanwhile wheat explodes higher and gasoline remains +104% YTD.
There are at least three geopolitical risks overhanging the world, the Iran US War, the Ukraine/Russia war and China’s South China Sea maritime claims. All can impact energy and commodities prices, often not as the herd expects though. Keep that in mind. The oil price is an excellent expression of that.
Oil prices remained a significant counterweight throughout the week. Sunday night we saw another pop in prices with the escalation in the Iran war. WTI crude traded up from Friday’s close to 86.106 +2.707 +3.25% and Brent 90.831 +2.731 +3.10% amid continued uncertainty. Not too surprising given U.S. President Trump apparently digging in for economic pressure to force Iran’s hand and the Secretary of War saying an Iranian blockade could be maintained “indefinitely”.
Iran risk remains firmly embedded in crude. New security chief Mohsen Rezaei warned last weekend that U.S. attacks have created “nuclear insecurity,” while separately hardening Tehran’s rhetoric over the Strait of Hormuz and threatening countries that support Washington’s coming sanctions campaign.
For oil, the nuclear language is rhetoric until policy changes; Hormuz, sanctions enforcement and physical flows remain what matters.
Energy This Week: WTI Crude retreated $3.66, or 4.2%, to $83.40 (up 45 %). Gasoline jumped 4.2% (up 104%), and Natural Gas rose 4.1% to $2.888 (down 22%). (Note Sunday rise above)
WTI Crude: Geopolitical Premium Fades After 2.618 Completion

Gold and Bitcoin Reaction to Warsh
Not really a surprise given the powerful impulse runs over the past week. the real drama came in precious metals and bitcoin. The next spot to watch will be the long end of the Treasury curve as yields should fall at some point if the Fed proves it will get inflation back to target and keep it there
Front-month Comex gold for September delivery sank 2.9% on Friday to $4,478.10/oz, its largest one-day percentage decline since June 24 and lowest settlement value since August 18. Front-month Comex September silver tumbled 3.5% to $66.995/oz; for the week, gold and silver slid 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively. Bitcoin declined $850, or 1.1%, to $77,450 (down 11.6% YTD).
Last week, Gold jumped 5.2% and Silver surged 6.7%, with the Bloomberg Commodities Index gaining 3.8% to a three-month high.


Developments in the Middle East suggest that it would be highly premature to declare risks to energy and broader commodity markets to have diminished sustainably.
The commodity complex is no longer moving as one trade. The market is differentiating between monetary hedges and supply-risk assets. The bigger point is that oil remains the inflation panic switch. Crude weakness can loosen financial conditions quickly, but a failed Iran headline would just as quickly restore the risk premium.
Key line: Copper confirms the buildout. Oil controls the panic. The long bond prices both
💵AUDJPY: Carry Trade Remains Intact
- For the week, the U.S. Dollar Index rallied 0.9% to 99.702 (up 1.4% y-t-d).
- On the upside, the South Korean won increased 0.8% was the lone riser.
- On the downside, the Swedish krona declined 1.4%, the New Zealand dollar 1.1%, the Brazilian real 1.1%, the Canadian dollar 1.0%, the Swiss franc 1.0%, the South African rand 1.0%, the Norwegian krone 0.8%, the euro 0.8%, the British pound 0.8%, the Mexican peso 0.7%, the Singapore dollar 0.4% and China’s (onshore) renminbi slipped 0.13% versus the dollar (up 3.83% y-t-d).
- For our carry watch the AUDJPY rose to record highs this week The carry trade remained intact with the Japanese yen down 0.7% and Australian dollar down just 0.1%, meaning the AUDJPY continued to float higher and for the past year is up over 18%.
Carry Trade Evolves, It Doesn’t Disappear
AUDJPY closed at a new all-time high despite U.S.–Japan intervention, while the Swiss franc is increasingly emerging as an alternative funding currency. With Swiss rates below Japanese rates and the SNB uncomfortable with excessive franc strength, global carry is adapting rather than unwinding.
The historically wide rate differential between Japan and the United States has been a central driver of yen weakness and the carry trade, although that cushion is now narrowing. The Federal Reserve’s increasingly hawkish posture has made that divergence still more difficult for Japanese authorities to contain.
AUDJPY: Reflects Active Carry

Going back to our bond scenario, a limiting influence upon the US Treasury sell off is the yen carry trade. Its attractiveness as trend yen weakness funds interest in the front-end of the US Treasury market continues to evolve, with the recent fear headlines after dollar yen weakness serving to take pressure off. This may be part of why the US 2s sales have moderated since late July. A former Japanese currency diplomat Furusawa on Friday said that the Bank of Japan plans another 50-75 basis points of rate hikes, adding that another U.S. intervention is possible if the yen returns to this year’s low against the dollar.

Recall during the recent US/Japan joint intervention Japan’s Ministry of Finance made a rare English-language post stating that it had a broad range of tools available to address market-liquidity needs. These included access to the Federal Reserve’s repurchase facility, which would allow Japan to raise temporary dollar liquidity without immediately selling U.S. Treasury securities.
“Japan spent $98.7 billion to prop up the yen in the past month in a joint action with the U.S., a record intervention that has had a modest impact so far. The yen has given up many of its initial gains, highlighting the limitations of government efforts to move prices in financial markets. The U.S. has also tried to stem a rise in bond yields, again with limited success.” August 28 – Wall Street Journal (Megumi Fujikawa)
That matters because continued yen-buying intervention could otherwise require Japan to liquidate part of its enormous Treasury portfolio. Such sales could place still more upward pressure on U.S. long-term yields.
Cheap yen funding → higher-yielding/risk assets → commodity currency strength → leverage remains comfortable.
Cheap yen funding supported:
- U.S. Treasuries
- Global credit
- Emerging markets
- Carry trades
- Leveraged macro positioning
EM leverage, yen funding, and commodity-linked currencies all deserve close attention from here.
Swiss Franc Carry Trade
Japan wants a stronger yen; Switzerland would actually welcome a weaker franc because excessive CHF strength has been hurting exporters. SNB has said it is prepared to intervene to weaken the franc if necessary.

“Carry traders are increasingly turning to the Swiss franc in the near term for their source of funding as the threat of intervention and higher interest rates saps the appeal of borrowing in the yen. Hedge funds boosted their net short position in the franc to near a two-month high in the week through Aug. 11… At the same time, they reduced their yen shorts for a second week. ‘The market has recently added short Swiss franc exposure to fund foreign-exchange carry trades,’ said Tobias Jungmann, head of Americas foreign-exchange options at Bank of America… The ratio of volatility versus carry for franc-funded emerging-market trades also make options an attractive way to gain exposure while limiting risk, he said.” August 18 – Bloomberg (David Finnerty and Ruth Carson)
Structure
FX is expressing both rate differentials and global carry conditions.
Why It Matters
- A sustained normalization in Japanese yields threatens one of the foundational pillars of global liquidity.
- Long-dated Japanese government bond yields have continued pressing multi-decade highs, while 10-year yields remain near levels last seen in the late 1990s.
USDJPY is now one of the clearest expressions of dollar strength, yen funding pressure and global carry stress. A stronger dollar and higher U.S. front-end rates are tightening conditions for yen-funded trades, EM FX and leveraged macro positioning, even as risk assets remain buoyant.
Ahead: Iran, Jobs and Central Banks.
- US Macro: Jobs are the main watch. The monthly review of the U.S. labor market starts Tuesday with the July report on job openings and worker turnover. On Friday, the August jobs report will be released. The July report showed that hiring slowed unexpectedly. So far, employment has held up better than other parts of the economy, but stubborn inflation is still pressuring businesses and households as consumer confidence weakens. The Fed raising its benchmark rate to fight stubbornly high inflation could further damage the jobs market. Other US Data: ISM-manufacturing, vehicle sales, construction spending (Tuesday) Factory orders (Wednesday) The trade deficit, ISM-services (Thursday)
- Central Banks: Fed’s Beige Book to consider. Then we have three rate decisions. RBNZ with consensus unanimously expects a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday. Markets are almost fully priced for a hike. This would be the second consecutive hike after the RBNZ hiked in July. Bank of Canada on Wednesday expected to remain with a 2¼% policy rate at this meeting. Markets are priced for nothing at this meeting, about one-third of a 25bps hike in October and about two-thirds of a hike at the December 9th meeting. Bank Negara Malaysia with consensus almost unanimous to hold the overnight rate at 2.75% on Thursday..
- Global Macro: Global PMIs and Q2 GDP updates from more economies. European inflation with Germany on Monday, Italy on Tuesday and Switzerland (Thursday). More updated inflation from Indonesia, Peru and South Korea (Tuesday), Turkey (Thursday). Canada jobs and trade reports for July due. India, the world’s fastest-growing economy, Q2 GDP figures on Monday. Australia’s Q2 GDP release on Tuesday. China will release two sets of PMIs: the official state PMIs over the weekend and the private, export-oriented PMIs in the first half of the week.
- Chips and AI: South Korea’s August export data on Monday will be closely watched as a gauge of continued global semiconductor demand. We also have earnings from a number of chipmakers
- Earnings: Dell Technologies (DELL), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Medtronic (MDT), MongoDB (MDB), Nio (NIO). Broadcom (AVGO), Snowflake (SNOW), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Five Below (FIVE), and Brown-Forman (BF.A) (BF.B) NetApp (NTAP) Ciena (CIEN), Zscaler (ZS), Samsara (IOT), Docusign (DOCU), and Lululemon (LULU) Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) and Planet Labs (PL)
- G20 Innovation Ministerial meeting in North Carolina will include G20 officials and tech leaders such as SpaceX (SPCX) and Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, OpenAI (OPENAI) CEO Sam Altman, and Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang.
⚠️RISK RADAR
What Could Break the Melt-Up?
- Credit spreads reacting to duration stress
- U.S. 30-year yields extending toward 5.50%
- Disorderly JGB repricing forcing BOJ intervention
- Oil spike reigniting inflation expectations
- Failed Treasury auctions / weak foreign demand
- Carry trade unwind in AUDJPY or EM FX
- Commodity divergence widening — crude vulnerable to headlines, metals acting as hedges, energy equities trying to hold.
Any of these could force markets to reprice quickly
🧠 FINAL THOUGHT
The interesting setup heading into the week is that the market is receiving conflicting signals rather than one clean risk-on or risk-off message. Long-term Treasury yields are pressing major resistance, crude oil is again rising, Gold and Bitcoin have surged and pulled back, the dollar has weakened, yet carry remains firmly active and volatility remains subdued.
Warsh → Hawkish Flattening → Was It an Overreaction? → Gold/BTC purge → Wheat refuses the disinflation story → Jobs decide whether Warsh gets validation.
This remains a liquidity-led market. The AI tape has been hit hard but we are seeing rotation from profit taking to other sectors. Financial conditions are loose, but investors are reassessing risk on issuance and AI infrastructure. The second quarter showed how far a market can run when short covering and FOMO overwhelm macro concerns.
But the risk is becoming more specific. It is no longer just “rates are high” or “valuations are stretched.” The real risk is that the AI capex cycle has become self-reinforcing at the same time financing conditions have become easy again.
That can keep the party going. It can also make the eventual adjustment more violent.
For now, the market is still climbing. But semiconductors gave the first serious reminder this fortnight that even the strongest narratives can wobble when investors start asking about payback, capacity, and supply response.
The Cautious Investor view remains the same: respect the momentum, respect the liquidity, but do not confuse a blow-off quarter with a low-risk entry point.
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