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The post FOMC meeting delusional stock market rally reacted the next day as one would suspect after the Fed raised 75 bps sending the $ES_F and other indices sharply lower. The declines were led by the Nasdaq as it nears its 200-week MA for the first time since the start of the pandemic in March 2020. The major indices are down 6 of 7 trading days. The big catalyst to remind the machines was the SNB hiking a surprise 50bp. … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Central Banks Rate Frenzy Puts Bears Back in Charge June 16, 2022”

The FOMC meeting brought extreme volatility, the Fed raised 75 bps as expected sending it lower but $ES_F rallied 100 handles plus when he said next month may not be as big, an allowance that the July meeting is likely to feature either a 50-basis point rate hike or a 75-basis point rate hike. Shorts got caught and the machines took over from an oversold short-term market. The rebound in the Treasury market fed the machines. That vote was not … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Punters Paradise as Futures React with Extreme Volatility After Fed Raises 75 bp June 15, 2022”

The markets chopped away today with eyes towards tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The 2-yr note yield settled the session up 16 basis points at 3.43% and the 10-yr note yield settled up 12 basis points at 3.48%. The fed funds futures market is pricing in the probability of an aggressive Fed. The CME’s Fed Watch Tool shows a 96.6% probability of a 75-basis point rate hike on Wednesday (up from 3.9% a week ago), a 95.8% probability of another 75-basis point … Continue reading “Market Wrap – More Selling in Stocks, Bonds and Natural Gas June 14, 2022”

The markets continued on from Friday’s wreckage flinging the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 to new 52-week lows and the S&P 500 back into bear market territory. What amazes us here is how was this a surprise, we warned of the Dribbler trap aka Bear market rally, we all knew CPI ahead, we had all the bank warnings, we knew FOMC on deck. We could go on and on, but human nature gets greedy and the dribblers if nothing else … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Selling in Stock Markets Accelerate as Crypto Collapses June 13, 2022”

Another volatile day for energy with Natural Gas extreme volatility falling from 9.40 to under 8 to over 9 in less than 24 hours. The ECB meeting set off volatility and bonds. The euro reversed after today’s ECB rallying first and then declining 90 pips below the May 31 low to the worst levels in two weeks. This eventually worked through to the US Stock markets with major indices all closed at their lows for the session with CPI tomorrow. … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Euro and Bond Volatility Flows Through to Smack Stocks Lower June 8, 2022”

Another volatile day for energy with WTI up over $122 and Natural Gas extreme volatility falling from 9.40 to 8.60 on an explosion at Freeport LNG. Fresh record highs in Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) and fresh 52-week or record highs among 11 other energy sector components helping the group extend its Q2 gain to 20.7% versus an 8.4% quarter-to-date loss in the S&P 500 (-0.8%). Another warning, another ignored, Intel (INTC 41.23, -2.30, -5.3%) after the macro environment has been weaker and … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Another Day of Energy Volatility. June 8, 2022”

Today’s stock market was another sharp reversal from ‘in the hole’ as the bear market rally continuation still holds, S&P 500 failed to penetrate the May 27 low 4077.43 on its opening decline at 4080.19 and up it went. Negative news early with $TGT warning just 3 weeks after earnings and Gasoline and Natural gas prices surging which also sent multiple energy stocks to 52 week and all-time highs. Today’s best-performing sector was the energy sector (+3.1%), which is now … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Energy Gushes Higher. June 7, 2022”

Today’s market rallied hard for most of the day into tomorrow’s NFP after shrugging off a fiscal Q4 earnings warning from Dow component Microsoft (MSFT 274.58, +2.16, +0.8%) before the open who shared in an 8K filing that it now expects fiscal Q4 EPS to range from $2.24-2.32 versus its prior guidance of $2.28-2.35. From there major indices all closed at their best levels for the session, gaining between 1.3% and 2.7%. In turn, the CBOE Volatility Index dropped 4.2% to 24.62 … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Microsoft Warns, Bulls Say Thanks for Coming June 2, 2022”

June kicks off with QT with the stock market major averages finishing near yesterday’s lows. The S&P 500 lost 0.8% and the Russell 2000 lost 0.5%. That little Crypto rally ran out gas pretty quickly, Bitcoin fell back through $BTC $30,000 to be down 6.25% on the day. The financial sector (-1.7%) underperformed throughout the day after rallying off a 13-month low at the end of May. Energy (+1.8%) added to its gain as the session went on supported by … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Amber Alert for Markets as QT Kicks in, June 1, 2022”

Last Day of May coming in after Memorial Day markets were very much getting ready for Summer. Oil was all the chatter early, WTI prices turn negative under $115 after testing $120.00/bbl on EU’s agreement to ban 90% of Russian crude imports by the end of the year. U.S. Treasuries ended Tuesday negative territory led by the10-yr note. Fed Chairman Powell met with President Biden today and was reportedly assured that the White House will give the Fed space to … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Catching That Summer Wave May 31, 2022”