Crude Oil Up 7 Straight Weeks, Why and Where from Here

Oil prices have been on the rise while other risk assets have been on the slide, why is that? We look at the fundamentals and technical analysis behind the rise of WTI and Brent crude oil futures both up seven straight weeks. The longest winning streaks since February last year. The geopolitical and derivative frameworks have much to do with energy prices, how do we trade and invest with that. For August WTI is up 17.8%, Gasoline is up 12.6%, … Continue reading “Crude Oil Up 7 Straight Weeks, Why and Where from Here”

S&P 500 Mid-Year Review and Outlook for the Year Ahead (Includes AAPL NVDA XOM)

The Blue-Chip S&P 500 index shook off recession fears and a U.S. regional banking crisis to gain 15.9% in the first half. The Nasdaq Composite for its part gained 31.7% for its biggest first-half increase in four decades. Much of the rise was from climbing the wall of worry as shorting became costly with the Cboe Volatility Index hit its lowest level since early 2020. Interesting with all the headlines that the huge advance in the stock markets is being … Continue reading “S&P 500 Mid-Year Review and Outlook for the Year Ahead (Includes AAPL NVDA XOM)”

The Meaning of Market Volatility (or Lack of) Risk: The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Video Companion

We prepare for the week ahead, what is dominating markets as we see tight and failing ranges from stocks to currencies as liquidity is low in most places. Index ranges this week are the tightest since late 2021. S&P with 55.62 points lowest range since November 2021. NASDAQ 258 points lowest range since December 2021. Dow Jones industrial average 340.88 points lowest since August 2021. Oil prices ran out of steam and declined this week, reflecting recession concerns. WTI crude … Continue reading “The Meaning of Market Volatility (or Lack of) Risk: The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Video Companion”

Copper Prices Rising While Markets Slide, Why?

Copper is higher today while stock, bond and most commodity prices are sharply lower. A quick look at what is going on. Last week copper rallied 2.2%, it had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities and is a key for the bigger picture here. The Bloomberg commodity index fell 2.0% and is down 5.6% YTD last week. Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at YouTube – feel free to like and share Live on YouTube … Continue reading “Copper Prices Rising While Markets Slide, Why?”

Oil and Gasoline Outlook In a Mad, Mad World

Oil prices have been volatile for quite a while now. WTI futures fell -4.24% on the week, Brent fell -3.95%, gasoline fell -3.98% and heating oil fell -5.32%. On the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine we take a look at oil at what is going on and influencing it. Oil prices continue to trade back and forth between geopolitical risks and massive builds from low refinery usage due to maintenance. Futures have been ignoring large US builds and have … Continue reading “Oil and Gasoline Outlook In a Mad, Mad World”

S&P Futures Sell off on Rates and Geopolitics – where to now?

We look at the S&P 500 as it continues its slide after last week finished pressuring asset prices, fear levels rose and confusion reigns. Both market participants and Central Bankers are acting belligerent in where they think prices should be. Bottom line is we getting robust signals from the economy about a year-and-a-half into upward pressure on market-based borrowing costs, why? Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at YouTube – feel free to like and share Live on YouTube … Continue reading “S&P Futures Sell off on Rates and Geopolitics – where to now?”

Natural Gas Collapse Continues, Where Does it End?

Two things are certain, Natural Gas tears faces off punters and dribblers, Natural Gas futures never does what is expected. Natural gas futures fell Monday another 8%, Last week it fell -9.94%, down -27.22% for the month and -48.27% year on year reflecting a combination of an oversupplied market and TTF futures in Europe touching €49.5 a megawatt-hour on Friday. We discuss what is going on and the outlook. Enjoy live commentary from Our Trading Room at YouTube – feel … Continue reading “Natural Gas Collapse Continues, Where Does it End?”

Markets Reverse Sharply on Feds Powell Statements, What Does it all Mean?

Thirty minutes in financial markets is a long time. Markets were relieved after the Federal Reserve again raised rates by 75 bp at their November meeting. Then Chairman Powell started talking and it all collapsed. The Nasdaq went from +25.45 at 10856.15 to negative to close -366.05 points at -3.36% at 10464.65. The 10-yr note yield fell to 3.98% but jumped to 4.11% after the close of the cash session. Traders had reacted initially to the tone of possible rate hikes slowing … Continue reading “Markets Reverse Sharply on Feds Powell Statements, What Does it all Mean?”

Market Wrap – Snap Wrecked Again as Tesla Sizzles July 21, 2022

Two things are certain it seems $SNAP gets crushed on warnings and Tesla and Natural Gas tears faces off punters. Prior to $SNAP’s earnings release the S&P 500 closed a tad shy of 4,000. We started off the Bank of Japan lowering its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% and the ECB announcing a larger-than-expected 50-basis point increase for its key lending rates. Initial jobless claims topped 250,000 for the first time since last November; the Philadelphia Fed Index … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Snap Wrecked Again as Tesla Sizzles July 21, 2022”

Market Wrap – Tearaway Inflation and Bank Earnings July 14, 2022

Doom and gloom reigns in the markets with Central Banks raising rates and scorching inflation with CPI and PPI breaking records in America. The Dow and S&P extended their losing streaks to 5 straight down days after both $MS and $JPM missed earnings. Stocks did bounce off their low after Federal Reserve Waller said he sees neutral as 2-2.25% and added that you don’t want to overdo rate hikes. Bonds quickly rebounded on that and at the lows the Dow … Continue reading “Market Wrap – Tearaway Inflation and Bank Earnings July 14, 2022”