OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2024

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for February 2024 released Tuesday provides OPEC’s outlook for crude oil market developments for the coming year with key developments impacting oil market trends in world oil demand and supply. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said that OPEC stands ready to alter its policy at any time the day before the release. The report comes after Oil prices have pulled back but remained volatile after initially surging rose after the Hamas/Israel war. OPEC blames … Continue reading “OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report February 2024”

Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified

Consumer prices continue prove to be sticky in the US, core CPI continues to run hot. The Fed favors the core metric as a better gauge of inflation trends. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) after increasing 0.3% in December. Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the overall CPI index jumped 0.6%, accounting for more than two thirds of the overall increase. On a year-over-year basis core CPI was up … Continue reading “Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified”

China and America, a Tale of Two Markets – Traders Market Weekly

Feb 11-17, 2024 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial While stock markets in America, Australia, France and Germany have all tagged record highs in this thrust higher a huge point of difference is while U.S. equities are in the throes of a major speculative … Continue reading “China and America, a Tale of Two Markets – Traders Market Weekly”

Abundant Marketplace Liquidity and Easy Credit Availability – Bond Market Review

Friday saw a repeat for U.S. Treasuries closing out the week on a sharply lower note, yields on the 10-yr note and shorter tenors went their highest closing levels since mid-December while the long bond outperformed, keeping its yield three basis points below its highest close from last month. We saw the same last Friday with yields coming off their lowest levels of the year after the red-hot January jobs report showed headline growth of 353,000, twice as high consensus. … Continue reading “Abundant Marketplace Liquidity and Easy Credit Availability – Bond Market Review”

Impressive 30-year Treasury Bond Sale Completes Strong Week of Auctions

The U.S. Treasury completed this week’s note and bond auction offerings today with another strong auction. U.S. Treasuries rallied off afternoon lows back to their starting levels after the U.S. Treasury’s $25 billion 30-yr bond sale. The auction drew a high yield of 4.360%, which stopped through the when-issued yield by two basis points. The bid-to-cover ratio (2.40x) was comfortably above average (2.38x), as was indirect takedown (70.7% vs 67.8% average). The S&P 500 continues to hover near record highs … Continue reading “Impressive 30-year Treasury Bond Sale Completes Strong Week of Auctions”

Into the Vortex – EIA Reports U.S. Natural Gas Stocks Fell 75Bcf Last Week

EIA reported natural gas storage in the U.S. last week a near expected -75Bcf in storage last week with the consensus was for a draw of -76Bcf. For perspective in the same week last year stocks were -208Bcf, with a five-year (2017-2021) average -193Bcf. Natural gas prices continue their fall, HH prompt sans $2.00. They fell again last week, Henry Hub futures for March delivery settled at $2.08 mbtu, up 1.4% on Friday but settled 4.4% lower for the week. … Continue reading “Into the Vortex – EIA Reports U.S. Natural Gas Stocks Fell 75Bcf Last Week”

10-year Bond Auction Sees Strong International Takedown

U.S. Treasuries came off afternoon lows in reaction to strong demand at the $42 billion 10-yr Treasury note auction. The sale followed yesterday’s strong 3-yr note offering. The sale drew a high yield of 4.093%, which stopped through the when-issued yield by 1.2 bps while the bid-to-cover ratio (2.56x vs 2.49x average) and indirect takedown (71.0% vs 66.7%) were comfortably above their respective prior 12-auction averages. However, the 5-yr note and longer tenors continue with small losses while shorter tenors … Continue reading “10-year Bond Auction Sees Strong International Takedown”

Gasoline and Distillates Stocks Show Big Draws After Weeks of Builds – Around The Barrel

Oil prices continue to churn on Chinese woes and Mid East Threats after they had their largest weekly decline since October last week, moving higher as Red Sea and Iranian threats grow deeper. EIA reported a crude build of +5.520MMbbls. Gasoline stocks fell -3.146M after reaching a reached a fresh three-year high last week having risen +1.156M, 4.913Mbbls, +3.083Mbbls, +8.028Mbbls and +10.9Mbbls last weeks, that’s a lot of Gasoline building up. Distillate drew -3.221MMbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub … Continue reading “Gasoline and Distillates Stocks Show Big Draws After Weeks of Builds – Around The Barrel”

Bonds Bounce After Sharp Losses Following Strong 3-year Treasury Note Auction

U.S. Treasuries traded to fresh highs after the completion of today’s $54 bln 3-yr note sale, which met strong demand. U.S. bonds climbed on Tuesday, bouncing from two days of sharp losses. No U.S. economic data on today’s calendar helped also. The sale drew a high yield of 4.169%, which stopped through the when-issued yield by a solid 0.8 bps while the bid-to-cover ratio (2.58x vs 2.68x) was below average. Indirect takedown (66.0% vs 63.1%) was solid. Issues in the … Continue reading “Bonds Bounce After Sharp Losses Following Strong 3-year Treasury Note Auction”

Reserve Bank of Australia Does Not Rule Out Future Hikes

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates unchanged at 4.35% as widely expected by analysts, keeping rates at the highest level since May 2012. RBA Governor Bullock sounded as there was in no hurry to cut rates describing rate risks as “fairly balanced” with inflation still “too high” and said, “a further increase in interest rates cannot be ruled out.” The messaging from the RBA was “we are not ruling in anything or out anything” and “need to stay the … Continue reading “Reserve Bank of Australia Does Not Rule Out Future Hikes”