Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World

It is difficult to predict exactly what black swan events might occur in the future, as these events are by definition rare and unexpected. Critical thinking around past black swans gives a range of possibilities including, pandemics, cyber-attacks, natural disasters, major technological breakthroughs or disruptors, or a geopolitical event, such as a war or a political crisis. Of course, by their very nature the black swan could be from something totally unthought of. Expect the unexpected as a good way … Continue reading “Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World”

Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022

One of the most widely followed analysts on Wall Street, Byron Wien issued his list of the Ten Surprises of 2022. Wien, 88 is a former Morgan Stanley strategist who has put out his “surprises” list since 1986. Now Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone put out the list with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle, What is a Surprise Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out … Continue reading “Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022”

Oil Futures Collapse Over 13% on South African Variant Risk Asset Selling

Stock markets and commodities markets sold off hard on Friday due to a new coronavirus variant identified in South Africa. The selling intensified with some countries including the UK, Singapore and Israel curbing travel from South Africa and other neighboring countries. We had seen a dead cat bounce in WTI and Brent after the SPR coordinated release plans. The new COVID-19 variant contains significantly more mutations than others raised concerns of further lockdowns and travel restrictions that could weigh heavily … Continue reading “Oil Futures Collapse Over 13% on South African Variant Risk Asset Selling”