Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Outlook for The Week

Oil futures continued to bounce off support ahead of the Juneteenth holiday Wednesday to settle at their highest level in seven weeks. Traders appear to be catching the stock market bug with bullish prospects for global crude demand. West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery rose $1.24, or 1.5%, to settle at $81.57 a barrel on the NYMEX with futures expiration at the end of Thursday’s trading session after the latest storage report from the EIA. Last week the EIA … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Outlook for The Week”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Outlook as Hurricane Season Arrives

Natural gas prices traditionally oscillate sharply this time of year between summer weather forecasts and supply. No different this year, ahead of the Juneteenth holiday NYMEX futures revered five days of falling Tuesday to close sharply higher. Weather models forecast US temperatures had shifted hotter for parts of the eastern and southern US from June 28-July 2. The National Weather Service (NWS) said that “the vast majority of the lower 48 US states could see above-average temperatures for the next … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Outlook as Hurricane Season Arrives”

Traders Market Weekly: Political Uncertainty Rising Globally

June 15, 2024 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Market Dynamics and Instability The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Fear and Greed Feed Volatility Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial More of the same this week from the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite with new record highs, and closes of 1.6% and 3.2% higher, respectively. Mega … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Political Uncertainty Rising Globally”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Production and Weather Outlook for Summer

Natural gas prices have had another volatile week after hitting 4-3/4-month prompt futures high on hotter-than-normal US temperatures forecasts from June 18-25. However, July Nymex natural gas on Wednesday closed down -2.68% on supply concerns. As of May 31, US natural gas inventories were up +13.5% y/y and were +25.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample gas supplies. EQT Corp., the leading producer of natural gas in North America announced it is now reinstating the 1 billion cubic feet … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Production and Weather Outlook for Summer”

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week with OPEC and STEO

EIA reported a US crude build of +3.730Mbbls fueled by a 2.6mbd increase in imports to 8.3mbd, the highest since 2018, while exports slumped to a two-month low at 3.2mbd. Gasoline stocks rose +2.566Mbbls. Distillates rose +0.881Mbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing stocks fell with a -1.593Mbbls draw. Domestic US oil production rose 100k to 13.2mbpd just off the all-time high 13.3mbpd. Refinery demand rose with refinery utilization fell 0.40% to 95%. There was +0.339Mbbls added to SPR inventory … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week with OPEC and STEO”

Traders Market Weekly: Fed and BOJ Dribble Ahead

June 9, 2024 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Market Dynamics and Instability The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Fear and Greed Feed Volatility Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial There was a reality check from Friday’s stronger-than-expected payrolls data with ten-year Treasury yields surging 14 bps (MBS yields up 16 bps), and two-year yields jumping … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Fed and BOJ Dribble Ahead”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas May Recap and Outlook for Summer

The EIA reported the natural gas storage build in the U.S. last week came in larger than expected with +98 Bcf in storage with consensus a build of +84 Bcf. For perspective in the same week last year stocks were +105Bcf, with a five-year average +103Bcf. The withdrawal season ended with stocks at the highest level in years. As of May 17, natural gas inventories were up +16.1% y/y and were +28.8% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample gas … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas May Recap and Outlook for Summer”

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead

EIA reported a US crude build of +1.233Mbbls. Gasoline stocks rose +2.102Mbbls. Distillates rose +3.197Mbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing stocks rose with a +0.854M build. Domestic US oil production was unchanged at 13.1mbpd just off the all-time high 13.3mbpd. Refinery demand rose with refinery utilization rising +1.10% to 94.1%. There was +0.900Mbbls added to SPR inventory WoW. The market has refocused on the delay of possible rate cuts by the federal Reserve this year as inflation lingers. The … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead”

Traders Market Weekly: Cracks Widen in China and Emerging Markets

June 1, 2024 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… Market Dynamics and Instability The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Fear and Greed Feed Volatility Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial A week of distortion for markets and news cycles. In the U.S. the stock market closed the holiday-shortened week down, but closed May with solid gains. … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Cracks Widen in China and Emerging Markets”

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead

EIA reported a US crude draw of -4.156Mbbls. Gasoline stocks rose +2.022Mbbls. Distillates rose +2.544Mbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing stocks fell with -1.766Mbbls draw. Domestic US oil production was unchanged at 13.1mbpd just off the all-time high 13.3mbpd. Refinery demand rose with refinery utilization rising +2.50% to 93%. There was +0.900Mbbls added to SPR inventory WoW. The market has refocused on the delay of possible rate cuts by the federal Reserve this year as inflation lingers. The last … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead”