The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index came in higher than expected at 102.0 for November (consensus 100.0). However, this came after a downwardly revised 99.1 (from 102.6) for October. Without the downwardly revised number for the prior month, it was lower, all in the headline as they say in these instant news cycles for the algorithms. Two things stood out, rising prices and higher interest rates are still pressuring consumer confidence. However, year-ahead inflation expectations dipped to 5.7% from 5.9%, … Continue reading “American Consumer Confidence Improves in November, But Caution with Downward Revisions”
Stronger Demand in 5-Year Treasury Auction Following Soft Earlier 2-Year Treasury Auction
U.S. Treasuries rallied to new highs after the completion of today’s $55 billion 5-yr note auction, which met much stronger demand than the $54 billion 2-yr note sale completed 90 minutes earlier. The 5-yr note sale drew a high yield of 4.420%, which stopped through the when-issued yield by 0.5 bps even though the bid-to-cover ratio (2.46x vs 2.51x average) and indirect takedown (65.5% vs 68.3% average) remained below average. Equities climbed off their lows with the Nasdaq extending its … Continue reading “Stronger Demand in 5-Year Treasury Auction Following Soft Earlier 2-Year Treasury Auction”
International Demand Lower in 2 Year Treasury Auction as Fresh Bond Supply Swamps Market
In another week of heavy supply, the 2-year $54 billion two-year notes auction kicked off this weeks’ auctions and saw dismal international demand of 57.4% versus a 12-month average of 62.9%. Domestic demand came in stronger than expectations 23.9% versus the 12-month average of 20.2% which helped the entire complex higher throughout the day with the front end overcoming the soft sale. The bid to cover was less than the 12-month average. The sale drew a high yield of 4.887%, … Continue reading “International Demand Lower in 2 Year Treasury Auction as Fresh Bond Supply Swamps Market”
US New Home Sales Slump 5.6% in October, Downwardly Revised for September
New home sales fell 5.6% month-over-month in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units (consensus 720,000) from a downwardly revised 719,000 (from 759,000) in September. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were up 17.7%. Noticeably new home sales activity slumped in October despite a big drop in median and average selling prices. The latter had to do with a large decline in sales in the high-priced West region. What is clear is inflation and high mortgage … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Slump 5.6% in October, Downwardly Revised for September”
Traders Market Weekly: Squeeze Dynamics and Market Fragility
Nov 26 – Dec 2, 2023 FEAR NOT Brave Investors Where have we been and where are we going? Join our weekly market thread on Traders Community… The Week That Was – What Lies Ahead? Contents Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section. Editorial Markets delivered more of the same in the shortened Thanksgiving week with speculators giving thanks to equities indices as they continued their drive higher as short squeeze dynamics continue to play their … Continue reading “Traders Market Weekly: Squeeze Dynamics and Market Fragility”
Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Lagarde, Israel, New Zealand, Thailand and Korea Central Banks
In the week ahead four central banks are expected to hold, RBNZ, BoT, BoK and Israel. We also get no less than four speeches from ECB President Lagarde and one from Fed Chair Powell. Bankers were busy last week with Riksbank, Bank Indonesia, SARB, and Iceland sat pat as expected. Turkey’s central bank delivered a much larger hike pushing rates to 40%. Chinese banks left LPRs unchanged. Hungary as expected cut again. Data wise there is plenty for rate watchers, … Continue reading “Central Bank Watch – Week Ahead Focus on Lagarde, Israel, New Zealand, Thailand and Korea Central Banks”
Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Bonds Eye New Supply, PCE Ahead
U.S. Treasuries closed the shortened week broadly lower. Treasuries followed Thanksgiving with a lower start that returned the 30-yr yield to little changed for the week while yields on shorter tenors were pushed above their closing levels from last week. The 2-yr note showed a five-basis point increase in yield for the week while the 10-yr yield rose three basis points since last Friday, pressuring the 2s10s spread to -48 bps from -46 bps at last week’s settlement. There is … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Bonds Eye New Supply, PCE Ahead”
Baltic Capesize Soared 26.4%, Its Biggest Daily Increase in Over Two Years – TC Shipping Monitor
The Baltic Capesize Index on Friday soared the most in over two years with the impact of cargoes such as iron ore and coal pushing bids higher. On Thursday it rose 11% to 2,679 points and squeezing for the second day another 26.4% to 3,385 points. The weighted average spot rate across five key capesize routes soared by $5,855 on Friday and was assessed by panelists at $28,071 per day. This was the fifth largest daily jump in the capesize … Continue reading “Baltic Capesize Soared 26.4%, Its Biggest Daily Increase in Over Two Years – TC Shipping Monitor”
Into the Vortex – Natural Gas Traders Outlook for the Week Ahead with Record Production and Mellow Demand
Natural gas prices continued their retreat this week to a two-month low as both the GFS & ECMWF models trended significantly warmer for early December, cutting more for than 10 GWDDs from an already mild forecast. Bullish speculators had a momentary sense of hope with the EIA reporting a higher-than-expected draw of -7 Bcf in storage. However, for perspective in the same week last year stocks were -60Bcf, with a five-year (2017-2021) average -53Bcf. We are around the second highest … Continue reading “Into the Vortex – Natural Gas Traders Outlook for the Week Ahead with Record Production and Mellow Demand”
Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Traders Outlook for the Week Ahead of OPEC+ Squabble
WTI declined for the fifth straight week at settle, the longest since 2021 despite the geopolitical risks in the Middle East. WTI futures settled with a 0.7% weekly loss, Brent fell less than 0.1%. OPEC+ will have its postponed meeting this week on Nov. 30 after producers struggled to reach a consensus on output levels. The OPEC decision to postpone their upcoming meeting to a later date underscored the long-anticipated fissures amongst the members. We also huge outflows in the … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Traders Outlook for the Week Ahead of OPEC+ Squabble”