Central Bank of Turkey Raises Another 250 bps to 45%, Signaled End of Rate Hikes

The Central Bank of Turkey hiked by another 250bps from 42.5 percent to 45 percent as expected. It also signaled the end of rate hikes by stating “that the monetary tightness required to establish the disinflation course is achieved and that this level will be maintained as long as needed.” This was consistent with expectations this would be the final hike after the central bank said at its last decision in December that the goal was to “complete the tightening … Continue reading “Central Bank of Turkey Raises Another 250 bps to 45%, Signaled End of Rate Hikes”

Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 250 bps to 42.50%, Up 35% since May

The Central Bank of Turkey hiked rates by another 250bps from 40 percent to 42.5 percent at its December meeting. The bank said headline inflation edged up in November and remains in line with the outlook presented in the most recent Inflation Report. The existing level of domestic demand, stickiness in services inflation, and geopolitical risks keep inflation pressures alive. The move follows a hike of 500bps at its November meeting. The move was its seventh big interest rate hike … Continue reading “Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 250 bps to 42.50%, Up 35% since May”

Russian Central Bank Hikes Interest Rate to 16% as Wartime Inflation Pressures Mount

Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) in a fight to arrest inflation and the fall of the plummeting Rouble hiked 100bps Friday morning to 16 percent, for the fifth consecutive time since summer to fight accelerating inflation. The Russian economy has been smashed but is said to be recovering on impacts from the invasion of Ukraine by scarcity and falling currency pushing up prices paid. The CBR has now raised its key rate by a cumulative 850 basis points since July, including … Continue reading “Russian Central Bank Hikes Interest Rate to 16% as Wartime Inflation Pressures Mount”

Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 500 bps to 40% with Inflation Stuck at Over 60%

The Central Bank of Turkey hiked by another 500bps, double the consensus, to a new one-week repo rate of 40% at its November meeting. The move was its sixth big interest rate hike in a row as inflation hit 61.36% last month. The weak lira responded minimally, gaining a little but underperforming against most EM crosses and several major ones. The currency response had much to do with the central bank indicating it would keep tightening but at a slower … Continue reading “Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 500 bps to 40% with Inflation Stuck at Over 60%”

Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 500 bps to 30%, Lira Continues to Weaken

The Central Bank of Turkey hiked by 500bps to 30% at its September meeting. It has been raised by 22.5% since May. The lira was weaker in response and has been selling off throughout the hiking campaign. Turkey remains in the clutches of a currency crisis after President Erdogan destroyed its credibility. The central bank said it was prepared to take further aggressive action on interest rates, with the CPI annual rate 59% in August. “Monetary tightening will be further … Continue reading “Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 500 bps to 30%, Lira Continues to Weaken”

Russia’s Currency Slide Accelerates, Is the Ruble the New Turkish Lira?

Russia’s ruble’s selloff has picked up speed falling to its weakest level in over a year, through 100 against the US dollar for the first time since the week after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Less than a month ago Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) in a fight to arrest the plummeting Russian Ruble hiked rates by a more-than-expected 100 basis points. The bank pointed to rising inflationary pressures. The central bank raised its key rate to 8.5% which surprised analysts polled … Continue reading “Russia’s Currency Slide Accelerates, Is the Ruble the New Turkish Lira?”

Ruble Slide Continues After Russian Central Bank Raises Rates 100bps

Russia’s Central Bank (CBR) in a fight to arrest the plummeting Russian Ruble hiked rates by a more-than-expected 100 basis points. The bank pointed to rising inflationary pressures. The central bank raised its key rate to 8.5% surprised analysts polled by Reuters, with a 50-basis-point hike the consensus. The ruble was 0.4% weaker against the dollar at 90.62 and 0.2% weaker at 100.73 versus the euro. It also dropped 0.1% against the yuan to 12.59. The ruble also felt the … Continue reading “Ruble Slide Continues After Russian Central Bank Raises Rates 100bps”

Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 250 bps to 17.5%, Another All Time Low for Lira

The Central Bank of Turkey hiked by 250 bps to 17.5 percent at its June 2023 meeting. It followed 650bps to 15% at its June 2023 meeting, the consensus guess was 20%. Inflation fell to 38.21% in June but expected to go as high as 60% with the ever-collapsing Lire. The lira touched a fresh record low, another 2.6% lower to 24.20 after. The lira tumbled to record lows again, falling about half a percentage point against the dollar on the … Continue reading “Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates By 250 bps to 17.5%, Another All Time Low for Lira”

EIA Forecast World Oil Consumption to Overtake Production This Year with Russia and KSA Cuts

In the July STEO, EIA forecast that world oil consumption will overtake production this year, this reverses earlier forecasts. The EIA 2023 world oil demand growth forecast was raised by 170kbpd to 1.76mbpd Y/Y,however, the 2024 forecast demand cut by 60kbpd to a 1.64mbpd Y/Y. A small drop in oil production from OPEC+ alliances with the extension of production cuts and those outside of them will trim global supply to 101.1mbpd a day, just short of demand. EIA sees US … Continue reading “EIA Forecast World Oil Consumption to Overtake Production This Year with Russia and KSA Cuts”

Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates First Time in Two Years, By 650 bps to 15.0%, Lira Collapses

The Central Bank of Turkey hiked by 650bps to 15% for the 7-day repo rate at its June 2023 meeting, the consensus guess was 20%, with one call calling for to 40%. The lira touched a fresh record low, another 2.6% lower to 24.20 after. The move came after holding steady for a third straight month following a 50-bps cut previously in response to the country’s earthquake disaster. The lira tumbled to record lows again. We now have President Tayyip … Continue reading “Central Bank of Turkey Raises Rates First Time in Two Years, By 650 bps to 15.0%, Lira Collapses”