Delving into markets, geopolitics and what could be ahead in 2025 it is noteworthy to acknowledge the unprecedented global impact of inflationism on elections and democracy in 2024. 73 countries held elections in 2024, meaning half of the world’s population were set to vote. What is clear main street had enough, and many incumbents were punished. Major economies that showed existing governments the door included India and Japan in Asia, the United States and France and Britain in Europe. In … Continue reading “Global Impact of Inflationism on Elections and Democracy”
Trump 2.0 Tariff Tampering
Trump straight out of the gate in his second term is keeping with his campaign promise of aggressively wielding the tariff flamethrower. We expected that the trade partners affected were poised to retaliate and they have acted accordingly. From here the higher import prices will be an issue. The questions with regard to inflation and growth are will the price impact be passed on and will currencies move to compensate price moves? President Donald Trump ordered top economic officials in … Continue reading “Trump 2.0 Tariff Tampering”
Moody’s Lowers Outlook on US Debt to Negative, Towards Fitch and S&P Global Downgrades
Rating agency Moody’s lowered its outlook on the US credit rating to “negative” from “stable”, pointing to a sharp rise in debt servicing costs with higher interest rates and “entrenched political polarization”. The move came after US markets had closed for the weekend. The move followed Fitch and S&P downgraded the US. The credit ratings agency maintained the USA’s top Aaa rating but changed its outlook to ‘negative’. Moody’s is the only of the three big credit rating agencies that … Continue reading “Moody’s Lowers Outlook on US Debt to Negative, Towards Fitch and S&P Global Downgrades”
Fitch Downgrades United States Long-Term Ratings to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’, Outlook Stable
Rating agency Fitch downgraded the United States of America’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’ on Tuesday. The Rating Watch Negative was removed, and a Stable Outlook assigned. The Country Ceiling has been affirmed at ‘AAA’. Fitch had warned debt limit games, political brinksmanship and reduced financing flexibility would impacts United States of America at ‘AAA’. Key Rating Drivers Ratings Downgrade: The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next … Continue reading “Fitch Downgrades United States Long-Term Ratings to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’, Outlook Stable”
American Household Wealth Rises by $3.0 Trillion, $2.4 Trillion from Stocks in Q1 2023
Americans’ household wealth rose by $3.0 Trillion in the first quarter of 2023, it rose to $148.8 trillion. Stock prices have been rebounding after they fell sharply off record highs two years ago after the Federal Reserve began talking of QT and raising rates to combat inflation. Global economy slackness from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Chinese Covid lockdowns also impacted asset prices negatively. Household debt rose 2.2 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter of 2023. … Continue reading “American Household Wealth Rises by $3.0 Trillion, $2.4 Trillion from Stocks in Q1 2023”
US Debt Ceiling Deal Done, What is In and Out, the Next Steps
U.S. President Joe Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy have struck a tentative deal on Saturday to raise the US debt ceiling in an ‘agreement in principle’. If approved, it averts a looming default that will bring relief to nervous markets and bring a sense of relief to the global economy. This was the 79th time it’s been raised since 1960. The US has defaulted four times, the last 1971 when the U.S. left the Bretton Woods convention. Next step is … Continue reading “US Debt Ceiling Deal Done, What is In and Out, the Next Steps”
Mountain Valley Gas Pipeline Permit Approved to Build in Appalachian National Forest
The Mountain Valley natural gas pipeline was approved late Monday to cover 3.5 miles of Jefferson National Forest, which is located between West Virginia and Virginia. The pipeline is expected to carry gas approximately 303 miles from Marcellus shale fields in West Virginia to Virginia. The pipeline has been controversial and long delayed. The U.S. Forest Service reissued its approval for a permit, despite past federal appeals court rulings determining developers had “inadequately considered” the project’s environmental impact. The project, … Continue reading “Mountain Valley Gas Pipeline Permit Approved to Build in Appalachian National Forest”
Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report, Follows Three of the Four Largest Failures in U.S. History
The Federal Reserve released its twice–yearly report Monday on financial hazards in its 2023 financial stability report. The report comes after a busy week for the Fed, following the second largest bank failure in U.S. history with First Republic, now three of the top four largest failures over just the past two months. The Fed said recent turmoil in the banking industry has stabilized but could weigh on credit conditions going forward. The Fed said it is prepared to address … Continue reading “Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report, Follows Three of the Four Largest Failures in U.S. History”
US Sovereign Rating Affirmed AA+ With Stable Outlook Stable By S&P
Standard and Poors rating agency affirmed that the US sovereign ratings remain ‘AA+/A-1+’ and the outlook remains stable. The affirmation comes out in the midst of a banking crisis with the US having three bank failures in a week. SVB was the largest failure since Washington Mutual’s September 2008 collapse and the second largest in U.S. history. The S&P says sovereign stability is based on strong American institutions, a diversified and resilient economy, extensive monetary policy flexibility. The agency added … Continue reading “US Sovereign Rating Affirmed AA+ With Stable Outlook Stable By S&P”
Brazil and Argentina Plan for a Latin American Common Currency
Two of Latin America’s largest economies Brazil and Argentina with eyes to strength in numbers along the lines of the Euro, plan a common currency to reduce the risk that comes with relying on the US dollar. Both countries have been in a cycle of a financial roller coaster since the Latam financial crisis of the 1970’s. Market crashed continue to pop up in recent years. The hope is it would strengthen trade amongst the group. It would at first … Continue reading “Brazil and Argentina Plan for a Latin American Common Currency”