The Energy Crisis and Volatility See Natural Gas and VIX the Best Performing Futures in January

Futures and commodities had a volatile start to 2022. January was about the energy crisis and interest rates and inflation. This pattern accelerated after the Fed minutes of the December FOMC took hold. This was borne out by the best performing futures being natural gas, VIX and Palladium. Energy was five of the highest gains for the month. The worse were lumber, ethanol and the major stock market indices. For the month S&P and Nasdaq have their worst month since … Continue reading “The Energy Crisis and Volatility See Natural Gas and VIX the Best Performing Futures in January”

Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged, Taper Pace Unchanged in Measured Response as Expected

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at their January meeting, The QE Taper pace left unchanged, scheduled to end in March as expected. Fed says it expects that it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus. Dot plot shows four hikes in 2022 vs four hikes expected Federal Reserve FOMC Statement  Federal Reserve Announcement, Wednesday 26 January 2021 14:00:00 ET FOMC Benchmark Interest Rate Target Range … Continue reading “Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged, Taper Pace Unchanged in Measured Response as Expected”

Strong U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction with High Yield of 2.210%

The US Treasury 20-Year Bond Sale performed much better than expected, garnering an A- rating across the Fixed Interest desk with strong demand from the international market. The tail was -1.5 basis points with WI level at time of the auction 2.225% and the high yield of 2.210% at the auction. Ahead of the auction U.S. Treasuries yields were higher across the curve (bearish). The 2-yr yield was up three basis points to 0.65%, 10-yr yield up three basis points … Continue reading “Strong U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction with High Yield of 2.210%”

Key Treasury Bond Auctions Along Yield Curve Next Week with Newly Hawkish Fed

Following the turmoil in the market this week following the Federal Reserve System Chairman Jerome Powell took a decidedly hawkish tone today at last month’s FOMC and the release of Minutes yesterday which sent US stock markets sharply lower. In the Treasury market the 2-yr yield, which tracks expectations for the fed funds rate, rose seven basis points to 0.83%. The 10-yr yield settled the session four basis points higher at 1.71%, with growing expectations for a run-up to 2.00%. … Continue reading “Key Treasury Bond Auctions Along Yield Curve Next Week with Newly Hawkish Fed”

Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022

One of the most widely followed analysts on Wall Street, Byron Wien issued his list of the Ten Surprises of 2022. Wien, 88 is a former Morgan Stanley strategist who has put out his “surprises” list since 1986. Now Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone put out the list with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle, What is a Surprise Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out … Continue reading “Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022”

China Aims to Guide More Long-Term Foreign Investors into its Treasury Bonds

The breakdown of the Chinese property market exemplified by the Evergrande crisis coupled with the unknowns of the shadow banking debt rocked China in 2021. China has been responding to these vulnerabilities. A Ministry of Finance official on Wednesday pointed to changes in the Chinese treasury bond market. The official said China will issue a record amount of Treasury Bonds in 2022. The official added that China will guide overall interest rates lower for it’s Treasury Bond issuance in 2022. … Continue reading “China Aims to Guide More Long-Term Foreign Investors into its Treasury Bonds”

Strong U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction with High Yield of 1.942%

The US Treasury 20-Year Bond Sale performed much better than expected, garnering a A rating across the Fixed Interest desk. The tail was -2.3 basis points with WI level at time of the auction 1.965% and the high yield of 1.942% at the auction. Ahead of the auction U.S. Treasuries yields were higher across the curve (bearish). The 2-yr yield was up three basis points to 0.65%, 10-yr yield up three basis points to 1.45%. 30-yr yields up 6.5 bps. … Continue reading “Strong U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction with High Yield of 1.942%”

Traders Talk Stock Market Technical Analysis & Macro Overview December 19 2021

The week that was and the week ahead in global stock markets. In developing our trading plan we walk through the KnovaWave Structure and shape in all the major indices and key stocks; AAPL, AMZN, SMH, NVDA and ARKK. Key earnings and influences with alternative outcomes. With a big week for Central Bankers we take a look at Bonds also Enjoy our technical analysts on youtube discuss Ichimoku, Gann, patterns and other indicators – feel free to like and share … Continue reading “Traders Talk Stock Market Technical Analysis & Macro Overview December 19 2021”

Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged, Doubles Taper To $30 Billion per Month as Expected

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at their December meeting, The QE Taper doubled in pace of Treasuries $20B per month as expected, and MBS $10B per month as expected. Dot plot shows three hikes in 2022 vs two hikes expected Federal Reserve FOMC Statement  Federal Reserve Announcement, Wednesday 15 December 2021 14:00:00 ET FOMC Benchmark Interest Rate Target Range UNCH .00-0.25% Interest Rate On Excess Reserves IOER hiked to 15 bps Conference To Follow At 2.30 ET PM With Chairman … Continue reading “Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged, Doubles Taper To $30 Billion per Month as Expected”

Traders Talk Stock Market Technical Analysis Overview December 12 2021

The week that was and the week ahead in global stock markets. In developing our trading plan we walk through the KnovaWave Structure and shape in all the major indices and key stocks; AAPL, AMZN, SMH, NVDA and ARKK. Key earnings and influences with alternative outcomes. With a big week for Central Bankers we take a look at Bonds also Enjoy our technical analysts on youtube discuss Ichimoku, Gann, patterns and other indicators – feel free to like and share … Continue reading “Traders Talk Stock Market Technical Analysis Overview December 12 2021”