CBO Estimates Build Back Better Act To Increase Unified Deficit By $115.1 billion

The Congressional Budget Office is out with an Estimated Budgetary Effects of Title VI, Committee on the Judiciary, H.R. 5376, the Build Back Better Act. CBO estimates that enacting this title would result in a net increase in the unified deficit totaling $115.1 billion over the 2022-2031 period. That increase in the deficit would result from an increase in direct spending of $147.2 billion and an increase in revenues of $32.1 billion. Some of those budgetary effects are associated with … Continue reading “CBO Estimates Build Back Better Act To Increase Unified Deficit By $115.1 billion”

Soft U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction With High Yield of 2.065%

The US Treasury 20-Year Bond Sale performed much worse than expected, garnering a D rating across the Fixed Interest desk. The tail was a lengthy 1.4 basis points with WI level at time of the auction 2.051% and the high yield of 2.065% at the auction. Heading into the auction the 10 year benchmark yield was down -2.1 basis points and the 30 year was down -0.9 basis points. Both were trading at or near the low yield for the … Continue reading “Soft U.S. 20-year Treasury Bond Auction With High Yield of 2.065%”

RBA Says Underlying Inflation at 2.5% Mid-Point Would Not Warrant Rate Rise

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe in giving a speech after today’s release of the RBA November meeting minutes addressed what it would require for a rate rise in Australia. He spoke of varying inflation degrees and the difference domestically and globally.   Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speech:  Recent Trends in Inflation  Address to the Australian Business Economists (ABE)Online and Sydney – 16 November 2021  Speech Headlines via Reuters  Latest data, forecasts do not warrant a rate rise in 2022 Economy, … Continue reading “RBA Says Underlying Inflation at 2.5% Mid-Point Would Not Warrant Rate Rise”

New Zealand To Issue Sovereign Green Bonds To Support Climate Transition

New Zealand government announced it’d be issuing a ‘green bond’ to fund low-emission or environmental projects such as renewable energy or reforestation, have increasingly become part of climate financing around the world including the UK, Germany and France. The ‘green bonds’ are issued at lower interest rates (relative to conventional govt bonds) to money managed by sustainable funds & those with ESG (environment, social and sustainability) mandates. In 2020 the global green bond market reached a cumulative issuance milestone of … Continue reading “New Zealand To Issue Sovereign Green Bonds To Support Climate Transition”

Banco de México Raises Rates Again With Inflation Risk To Mexican Economy

The Mexican Central Bank, Banco de México raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00% with the bank saying headline and core inflation forecasts were revised upwards. Last month the Banco Central do Brasil​ hiked its benchmark interest rate by 150bp to 7.75% The Mexico central bank Governing Board increased the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.00%. The vote was not unanimous, voting in favor of the decision were Alejandro Díaz de … Continue reading “Banco de México Raises Rates Again With Inflation Risk To Mexican Economy”

Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged, Begins Taper at $15Billion per Month as Expected

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at their November meeting, Cut in pace of Treasuries $10B/month as expected, Cut in pace of MBS $5B/month as expected. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory

Fitch Warns United States Could Lose ‘AAA’ Over Political Brinksmanship Over Debt Limit

Rating agency Fitch warned debt limit games could put US AAA rating at risk. If US debt limit were not raised or suspended in time, political brinksmanship and reduce the financing flexibility could increased risk of sovereign default United States of America at ‘AAA’

US Sovereign Rating Affirmed AA+ With Stable Outlook Stable By S&P

Standard and Poors rating agency affirmed that the US sovereign ratings remain ‘AA+/A-1+’ and the outlook remains stable. The US is thundering to increasingly massive debt levels since the global pandemic. The S&P says sovereign stability is based on strong American institutions, a diversified and resilient economy, extensive monetary policy flexibility

Best and Worse Performing Futures After Black Swan First Quarter of 2020

Futures and commodities were hit violently in the first quarter of 2020 with the black swan Covid -19 event running roughshod over energy markets in particular. The biggest gainers were safehaven elements such as the VIX, treasuries and foodstuffs.