With the sputtering restart of the global economy, we look towards The Logistics Manager’s Index as insight in the US for a visualization of it’s rebalancing affect and the strengths and weaknesses in that process. The LMI fell for a third consecutive month in April to hit another record low of 50.9 down from 51.1 in March. The decline was mainly driven by a dip in inventory levels (-4.7 to 50.9), suggesting firms continue to get closer to properly balancing … Continue reading “U.S. Logistics Manager’s Index Record Low as Supply Chain Strives to Rebalance”
American Consumer Confidence Weakens with Pessimistic Job and Business Outlooks
The Conference Board said Consumer Confidence ln April fell to 101.3 (consensus 104.1) from a downwardly revised 104.0 (from 104.2) in March. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 108.6. Noticeably sentiment has become more pessimistic about the outlook for business conditions and the job market. The negativity around bank failures and politics in the United States has had another month to set in. The expectations Index remained below 80.0 for the 13th month out of … Continue reading “American Consumer Confidence Weakens with Pessimistic Job and Business Outlooks”
American Consumer Sentiment Falls off Thirteen-month High with Bank Failures
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March fell to 62.0 (consensus 63.4) from 63.4 in the preliminary reading. It was the first decline in sentiment in four months and down from 67.0 in the final reading for February which was a thirteen-month high. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 59.4. Of note the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had a limited impact on sentiment. Consumer confidence was already beaten … Continue reading “American Consumer Sentiment Falls off Thirteen-month High with Bank Failures”
American Consumer Confidence Holds Up Despite US Bank Collapses
The Conference Board said Consumer Confidence rose in March hit 104.2 (consensus 101.5) versus an upwardly revised 103.4 (from 102.9) for February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 107.6. Noticeably consumer sentiment held up well even though the survey period covered the week after Silicon Valley Bank collapsed. The cutoff date for the survey was March 20th, about ten days after the bank failures in the United States. The expectations Index remained below 80.0 for … Continue reading “American Consumer Confidence Holds Up Despite US Bank Collapses”
Germany Business Shrugs off Banking Crisis, Inflation and Strikes – Ifo
Despite constant negative headwinds in Germany sentiment in German business has improved. The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany increased to 93.3 in March of 2023. The index is the highest since February of 2022 beating market forecasts of 91 and up from 91.1 the previous month. Confidence among businesses rose for a fifth consecutive month, despite the recent banking turmoil surrounding Deustche Bank, inflation, strikes and borrowing costs. This upward development was driven primarily by business expectations; companies also … Continue reading “Germany Business Shrugs off Banking Crisis, Inflation and Strikes – Ifo”
American Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply with Short-Term Income Prospects
The Conference Board said Consumer Confidence fell in February for the second straight month. The index fell sharply missing consensus significantly at 102.9 (consensus 108.4) versus a downwardly revised 106.0 (from 107.1) for January. American consumers’ short-term outlook became decidedly gloomy, becoming considerably less upbeat about their short-term income prospects. That is scuppering plans to buy homes, autos, and major appliances. It was also reported that vacation intentions declined in February. In the same period a year ago, the index … Continue reading “American Consumer Confidence Falls Sharply with Short-Term Income Prospects”
American Consumer Sentiment Improves to Thirteen-month High
The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February showed an uptick to 66.4 (consensus 65.0), a thirteen-month high from the final reading of 64.9 for January. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 62.8. The report reflects some of the improved reports we have seen in new and pending home sales, mortgage applications and GDP. However, on the flipside year-ahead inflation expectations increased versus January, raising concerns with rising unemployment and about consumers’ future … Continue reading “American Consumer Sentiment Improves to Thirteen-month High”
American Consumer Confidence Falls with Concerns About the Economy
The Conference Board said Consumer Confidence fell in January, falling to 107.1 (below consensus 109.0) from an upwardly revised 109 in December. The Expectations Index retreated in January reflecting their concerns about the economy over the next six months. Consumers expect business conditions to worsen in the near term. Purchasing plans for autos and appliances held steady, but fewer consumers are planning to buy a home—new or existing. For perspective in the same period a year ago, the Consumer Confidence Index … Continue reading “American Consumer Confidence Falls with Concerns About the Economy”
Consumer Sentiment Improves with Inflation Expectations Lowest Since April 2021
The final January University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 64.9 (consensus 64.6) slightly improved from the preliminary reading of 64.6. The final reading for December was 59.7. A year ago, in January 2022, the index stood at 67.2. The report reflects some of the improved reports we have seen in new and pending home sales, mortgage applications and GDP. consumer sentiment has picked up from a despairing trough. Easing inflation is a big factor, given that is front … Continue reading “Consumer Sentiment Improves with Inflation Expectations Lowest Since April 2021”
Australian Consumer Confidence Jumps as Household Inflation Expectations Eased
Weekly Consumer confidence climbed 4.9 points last week to 87.4, starting the new year with the first increase since 2018, ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer survey showed on Tuesday. Inflation expectations dropped from the end of 2022, falling 0.9% to 5%. Its moving average for the last four releases fell 0.3 percentage points to 5.7 per cent. Confidence is still well below the neutral level (100) and the long-run average of 111.7. Highlights Adelaide Timbrell, a senior economist at ANZ. Source: ANZ … Continue reading “Australian Consumer Confidence Jumps as Household Inflation Expectations Eased”