Consumer Inflation Rises +0.4% in September with Hot Core Services Sector

U.S. CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month in September (consensus 0.3%) and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% (consensus 0.3%). More than half of the increase in total CPI was driven by a 0.6% increase in the index for shelter. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was unchanged at 3.7% while core CPI dropped to 4.1% from 4.3% for the 12 months ended in August. The all items index less shelter was up just 2.0% year-over-year and the services … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation Rises +0.4% in September with Hot Core Services Sector”

US Producer Prices Higher in September, Pass Through Effects to Consumer Worry

U.S. producer inflation rose unexpectantly higher than forecast in September, rising 0.5% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) following a 0.7% increase in August. The Producer Price Index, excluding food and energy (core), rose 0.3% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, PPI was up 2.2%, versus 1.6% in August, and core PPI was up 2.7%, versus 2.2% in August. The report puts a hold on disinflation being seen in producer prices, which keeps pass-through effects to … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Higher in September, Pass Through Effects to Consumer Worry”

Reserve Bank of India Kept its Key Rate at 6.50% Repeating a Hawkish Bias as Expected

The Reserve Bank of India on Friday made no changes to its interest rates, as expected at 6.50% during its October meeting. Guidance remained hawkish as Governor Shaktikanta Das signaled those monetary conditions will remain tight for some time as it looks to further curb inflationary pressures. Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) medium-term inflation target is 4%. The RBI said it is still in accommodation withdrawal mode. India’s yield curve bear steepened with double digit increases in yields from 5s … Continue reading “Reserve Bank of India Kept its Key Rate at 6.50% Repeating a Hawkish Bias as Expected”

Core PCE inflation Decelerated in August, Though Energy Prices Cause Concern

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, came in lower than consensus rising 0.1% (consensus 0.4%) in August. Core-CPE Price Index decelerated to 3.9% yr/yr from an upwardly revised 4.3% (from 4.2%) in July. The key takeaway core price growth was a cooler than expected, though the overall report showed price pressures remain and the surge in energy prices to factor in coming months. Prices as measured by the PCE index over … Continue reading “Core PCE inflation Decelerated in August, Though Energy Prices Cause Concern”

US Producer Prices Higher in August, Cost of Gasoline Surged 20%

U.S. producer inflation rose unexpectantly higher than forecast in August 0.7% month-over-month (consensus +0.2%) following a 0.3% increase in July. Prices being driven by higher fuel costs that risk tempering household spending and keeping inflation elevated. The cost of gasoline surged 20%, accounting for much of the gain. The core measure increased 0.2% month-over-month, as expected. On a year-over-year basis PPI was up 1.6% and excluding food and energy, was up 2.2%. On an annual basis, the PPI accelerated for … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Higher in August, Cost of Gasoline Surged 20%”

Cost of Living Crisis Deepens as Consumer Inflation Rises +0.6% in August

Annual inflation rose increased 0.6% from the prior month in August, the highest in twelve months pushed higher by gasoline prices on already strained household budgets. It was the most since inflation peaked at a four-decade high in June 2022. The cost-of-living crisis deepens as real wages continue to suffer, inflation-adjusted earnings rose 0.5% from a year earlier, a second month of decelerating earnings growth. Core CPI accelerated on a monthly basis for the first time since February, which leaves … Continue reading “Cost of Living Crisis Deepens as Consumer Inflation Rises +0.6% in August”

Core PCE inflation Rises to +4.2% from 4.1% in July Keeping Fed Awake

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, came in per consensus at persistently high levels in July. Core-CPE Price Index was up 4.2%, versus 4.1% in June. The key takeaway from the report would have to be the uptick in the year-over-year inflation readings. Not alarming but the Fed will notice as it looks at a basis not to cut rates in the near future. Prices as measured by the PCE index … Continue reading “Core PCE inflation Rises to +4.2% from 4.1% in July Keeping Fed Awake”

Consumer Inflation in July +0.2%, Shelter Accounted for Over 90% of Rise

Annual inflation rose for the first time in twelve months on a year-over-year basis, accelerated to 3.2% in July 2023 from 3% in June, but below forecasts of 3.3%. It marks a halt in the 12 consecutive months of declines, due to a high base effect from last year when a surge in energy and food prices pushed the headline inflation rate to 1981-highs of 9.1%. Core CPI eased to 4.7% from 4.8% in June, below expectations of 4.8%. On … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation in July +0.2%, Shelter Accounted for Over 90% of Rise”

Core PCE inflation Falls to +4.1% from 4.6% in June

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, moved lower than consensus at persistently high levels in June. Core PCE dipped to 4.1% from 4.6% y/y and rose 0.2% in June (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.3% increase in May. Prices as measured by the PCE index over the past year slowed to 3.0% from 3.8% and dropped to the lowest level in two years in June. and rose 0.2% in June (consensus 0.2%) … Continue reading “Core PCE inflation Falls to +4.1% from 4.6% in June”

US Producer Price Disinflationary Trend Continues in June, Reprieve for Profit Margins

U.S. producer inflation continued to moderate in June on a year-over-year basis, total PPI was up just 0.1% year-over-year, versus 1.1% in May & 2.3% in April. Rising the least since the 2020 fall. Excluding food and energy, PPI was up 2.4% down from 2.8% year-over-year in May and 3.2% in April. Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.1% month-over-month in June (consensus 0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.4% decline (from -0.3%) in May. The core index for final … Continue reading “US Producer Price Disinflationary Trend Continues in June, Reprieve for Profit Margins”