Brainard Warns Fed Prepared to Take Stronger Action on Inflation if Needed

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard pulled the rug out from under the markets on Tuesday when she said, “Inflation is much too high and subject to upside risks and The Fed is prepared to take stronger action if inflation and inflation expectations suggest the need.” Nothing new but remember algorithms have no FOMO emotion while the bond market had a mini taper tantrum. Highlights from Brainard Speech Combined impact of rate hikes and balance sheet reduction will bring policy to a … Continue reading “Brainard Warns Fed Prepared to Take Stronger Action on Inflation if Needed”

Inflation Surging Higher in February US CPI +7.9% y/y largest Increase in Forty Years

US CPI in February rose 0.8% m/m (consensus +0.8%). Core CPI rose 0.5% (consensus +0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 7.9% (versus 7.5% in January) and core CPI is up 6.4% (versus 6.0% January). Inflation remains persistently high as Central Bankers keep trying to reassure us that soaring inflation will come under control. The surge in energy costs due to war in Ukraine is still to come. Pressure is on the Fed to begin moving aggressively when … Continue reading “Inflation Surging Higher in February US CPI +7.9% y/y largest Increase in Forty Years”

US Producer Price Inflation Soars in January Double Expectations PPI +1.0% m/m +9.7% y/y

US Producer price inflation continues elevated at a rapid pace, a long way from the Central Bank transitory mantra. Annual PPI rose to 9.7% in January matching December and higher than the expected 9.1% y/y. This matched the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. The1.0% month-over-month rise was double the consensus 0.5% due to the sharp rise in goods prices. January 2022 PPI The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 1.0 percent in January, seasonally … Continue reading “US Producer Price Inflation Soars in January Double Expectations PPI +1.0% m/m +9.7% y/y”

Inflation Surging Higher in January US CPI +7.5% y/y largest Increase since Feb 1982

US CPI in January rose 0.6% m/m (consensus +0.4%). Core CPI rose 0.6% (consensus +0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 7.5% (versus 7.0% in December) and core CPI is up 5.5% (versus 4.9% November). Inflation remains persistently high as Central Bankers keep trying to reassure us that soaring inflation will come under control. Pressure is on the Fed to begin moving aggressively when officials meet next month. January marked the seventh time in the past 10 months … Continue reading “Inflation Surging Higher in January US CPI +7.5% y/y largest Increase since Feb 1982”

Lower US Producer Price Inflation Dependent on Oil Prices

US Producer price inflation continues elevated, a long way from the Central Bank transitory mantra. Annual PPI rose to 9.7% in December. This was the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. The 0.2% month-over-month rise was less than a consensus 0.4% due to the sharp drop in oil prices which has since reversed in January as has natural gas. December 2021 PPI The Producer Price Index in December for final demand was up 9.6% on an … Continue reading “Lower US Producer Price Inflation Dependent on Oil Prices”

US December CPI +7.0% y/y largest Increase in Consumer Inflation since June 1982

US CPI in December rose 0.5% m/m in December (consensus +0.4%). Core CPI rose 0.6% (consensus +0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 7.0% (versus 6.8% in November) and core CPI is up 5.5% (versus 4.9% November). Inflation remains persistently high as Central Bankers keep trying to reassure us that soaring inflation will come under control. US December Highlights US December CPI +7.0% vs +7.0% expected Highest since 1982 Prior was 6.2% m/m CPI +0.5% vs +0.4% expected Prior … Continue reading “US December CPI +7.0% y/y largest Increase in Consumer Inflation since June 1982”

Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022

One of the most widely followed analysts on Wall Street, Byron Wien issued his list of the Ten Surprises of 2022. Wien, 88 is a former Morgan Stanley strategist who has put out his “surprises” list since 1986. Now Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone put out the list with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle, What is a Surprise Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out … Continue reading “Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022”