Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified

Consumer prices continue prove to be sticky in the US, core CPI continues to run hot. The Fed favors the core metric as a better gauge of inflation trends. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.4% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) after increasing 0.3% in December. Shelter prices, which make up about a third of the overall CPI index jumped 0.6%, accounting for more than two thirds of the overall increase. On a year-over-year basis core CPI was up … Continue reading “Core Inflation Rose More Than Expected Again in January, Fed Hawkish Rhetoric Justified”

FAO World Food Price Index Fell in January 2024 to lowest level since February 2021

World food prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index continued to fall, down for a sixth month to 118 index points in January 2024, the lowest level since February 2021. The index is 13.7 points (10.4%) lower from a year ago, well off the record hit in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Cereals prices were down 2.2% to December 2020-lows as global wheat export prices declined amid strong competition among exporters and arrival of recently harvested supplies … Continue reading “FAO World Food Price Index Fell in January 2024 to lowest level since February 2021”

Core PCE Prices in December at 6 Month Annualized 1.9%, Below Fed’s 2% Target

The core PCE Price Index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.2% in December (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.1% increase in November. This is the sixth month in the last seven where monthly inflation has printed at a rate equal to or below the Fed’s 2% target. The PCE Price Index rose 0.2% in December (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.1% decline in November. With the December changes, the PCE Price Index was up 2.6% year-over-year, unchanged from … Continue reading “Core PCE Prices in December at 6 Month Annualized 1.9%, Below Fed’s 2% Target”

Consumer Inflation in December Rises Most in Three Months

Consumer prices have been proving sticky in the US, accelerating the most in three months in December. The CPI increased 3.4% in the year through December. On a monthly basis, it also rose by more than forecast, up 0.3%, the most in three months and above forecasts of 0.2%. The CPI core, excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in December from a month earlier and on an annual basis increased 3.9%. The Fed favors the core metric as a better … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation in December Rises Most in Three Months”

First Decline in PCE Prices since 2020, Soft Landing Case Boosted by Real Disposable Personal Income

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, increased 0.1% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%), taking the year-over-year change to 3.2% from 3.4%. The PCE Price Index declined 0.1% month-over-month consensus 0.1%), taking the year-over-year change to 2.6% from 2.9% in October. That was the first decline in the PCE Price Index since 2020. Prices are moving in the right direction for the Fed, but caution needed as Fed speakers’ remarks remind to think … Continue reading “First Decline in PCE Prices since 2020, Soft Landing Case Boosted by Real Disposable Personal Income”

US Producer Prices Continue to Deflate in November with Lower Energy Prices

The Producer Price Index for final demand in November continued with the disinflation view, PPI was unchanged month-over-month (consensus 0.1%), as was the index for final demand less foods and energy (consensus 0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, the index for final demand was up 0.9%, versus 1.2% in October, and the index for final demand less foods and energy was up 2.0%, versus 2.3% in October. The index for processed goods for intermediate demand was unchanged month-over-month while the index … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Continue to Deflate in November with Lower Energy Prices”

Reserve Bank of India Kept its Key Rate at 6.50%, BSE Sensex index Hits All Time High, Rupee All Time Low

The Reserve Bank of India on Friday made no changes to its interest rates, as expected at 6.50% during its December meeting for the fifth consecutive time. Governor Shaktikanta Das signaled those monetary conditions will remain tight for some time as it looks to further curb inflationary pressures. The RBI has projected retail inflation at 5.4 per cent for Financial Year 2024. The bank has the major focus amid expectations of a spike in food prices in coming months and … Continue reading “Reserve Bank of India Kept its Key Rate at 6.50%, BSE Sensex index Hits All Time High, Rupee All Time Low”

US Producer Prices Deflate in October, Biggest Drop Since April 2020

The October Producer Price Index (PPI) followed on with the disinflation tact being seen in some consumer prices, which keeps pass-through effects to the consumer less an issue. The market has responded in kind the last few days sending stocks sharply higher and yields sharply lower. Total PPI was down 0.5% month-over-month (consensus 0.1%), the biggest drop since April 2020, following a downwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.5%) in September. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged month-over-month … Continue reading “US Producer Prices Deflate in October, Biggest Drop Since April 2020”

Consumer Inflation Lower Than Expectations in October, but Shelter up 0.3% Underscores Cost of Living Crisis

U.S. CPI was unchanged in October month-over-month (consensus 0.1%) following a 0.4% increase in September. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%) following a 0.3% increase in September. The shelter index, up 0.3%, again was the largest factor in the increase in core CPI. On a year-over-year basis, total CPI was up 3.2%, versus 3.7% in September, and core CPI was up 4.0%, versus 4.1% in September. This was the smallest 12-month change in … Continue reading “Consumer Inflation Lower Than Expectations in October, but Shelter up 0.3% Underscores Cost of Living Crisis”

Yearly Core PCE inflation Eased in September, Though Monthly Prices Continue to Stick

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the annual core PCE Price Index, which omits food and energy, eased slightly to 3.7%, the lowest since May 2021, but held sharply above the central bank’s target of 2%. For the month it increased by 0.3% from the previous month in September of 2023, the most in 4 months per market expectations. and accelerating from the 0.1% increase in August. PCE rose 0.4% month-over-month, the same as in August and above market forecasts … Continue reading “Yearly Core PCE inflation Eased in September, Though Monthly Prices Continue to Stick”