IMF Cuts 2022 Global Growth With US, China and EU all Downgraded

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday downgraded its 2022 global growth forecast to 4.4% in its World Economic Outlook report. The IMF said it expects global gross domestic product to grow 0.5% less than previously estimated. The revision is largely due to lower growth in the world’s two largest economies: the U.S. and China. Rising Covid-19 cases, supply chain disruptions and higher inflation have hampered the economic recovery. “The global economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected,” … Continue reading “IMF Cuts 2022 Global Growth With US, China and EU all Downgraded”

Lower US Producer Price Inflation Dependent on Oil Prices

US Producer price inflation continues elevated, a long way from the Central Bank transitory mantra. Annual PPI rose to 9.7% in December. This was the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. The 0.2% month-over-month rise was less than a consensus 0.4% due to the sharp drop in oil prices which has since reversed in January as has natural gas. December 2021 PPI The Producer Price Index in December for final demand was up 9.6% on an … Continue reading “Lower US Producer Price Inflation Dependent on Oil Prices”

US December CPI +7.0% y/y largest Increase in Consumer Inflation since June 1982

US CPI in December rose 0.5% m/m in December (consensus +0.4%). Core CPI rose 0.6% (consensus +0.5%). On a year-over-year basis, total CPI is up 7.0% (versus 6.8% in November) and core CPI is up 5.5% (versus 4.9% November). Inflation remains persistently high as Central Bankers keep trying to reassure us that soaring inflation will come under control. US December Highlights US December CPI +7.0% vs +7.0% expected Highest since 1982 Prior was 6.2% m/m CPI +0.5% vs +0.4% expected Prior … Continue reading “US December CPI +7.0% y/y largest Increase in Consumer Inflation since June 1982”

Turkey’s Inflation Rate Surged to 36.1% in December as Lira Crashed

Turkey has seen prices rise and rates not seen for twenty years as the Turkish Lira collapse sending imported goods sky high. Turkey’s annual inflation rate stood at 36.1% in December, for the month consumer prices rose 13.58%. Staples such as transportation and food are rising at an even faster rate. The annual CPI was the highest since 37.0% in September of 2002, two months before President Erdogan’s AK Party first came to power. Soaring import prices pushed the December’s … Continue reading “Turkey’s Inflation Rate Surged to 36.1% in December as Lira Crashed”

Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022

One of the most widely followed analysts on Wall Street, Byron Wien issued his list of the Ten Surprises of 2022. Wien, 88 is a former Morgan Stanley strategist who has put out his “surprises” list since 1986. Now Vice Chairman in the Private Wealth Solutions group at Blackstone put out the list with Chief Investment Strategist Joe Zidle, What is a Surprise Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out … Continue reading “Blackstone’s Byron Wien Annual List of Surprises for 2022”

US Producer Price Inflation Continue Rising At Record Pace in November

US Producer price inflation continues elevated, a long way from the Central Bank transitory mantra. Annual PPI rose to 9.6% in November. Over 60 percent of the October increase can be traced to a 1.2 percent rise in prices for final demand goods. This was the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. On a year-over-year basis, the Producer Price Index for final demand was up 9.6% on an unadjusted basis, versus 8.6% in October. That has lifted … Continue reading “US Producer Price Inflation Continue Rising At Record Pace in November”

Fed Chairman Powell Says Too Low Inflation Harms Families and Business in Response To Senator Scott

Fed Chairman Powell comments came across the wires with an unannounced response to Senator Rick Scott (Fla R) that too low inflation harms families and business. On low treasury yields he said they attested to strong global demand for safe liquid assets.