WHO Names New COVID Variant of Concern ‘Omicron’

The World Health Organization (WHO) recognized the new Covid strain, first referred to as lineage B.1.1.529 and now named omicron, as a variant of concern. WHO said it will take weeks to understand how the variant may affect diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines. News of the South African variant sent shockwaves throughout financial markets in thin post Thanksgiving Day trade. Oil fell over 10% on the news with fear of economy’s shutting down again. omicron Omicron is the 15th letter of … Continue reading “WHO Names New COVID Variant of Concern ‘Omicron’”

ECB Stresses Current Inflation Hump Shaped Not Stagflation

ECB accounts of its October monetary policy meeting addressed a lot of key questions. The big one, is inflation transitory and are we headed for stagflation? The Bank recalled that stagflation experiences in the 1970s occurred in a different environment, in which indexation allowed wages to react to energy prices. The shortage of critical supplies including energy and other commodities has “seen market-based measures of inflation compensation in the euro area had surged to their highest levels in over seven years, … Continue reading “ECB Stresses Current Inflation Hump Shaped Not Stagflation”

Dallas Fed October Trimmed Mean PCE Falls For The Month But Still Higher on Year

The Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE for October showed the annualized rate of inflation at 4.2%, a slowdown from the extreme 4.9% in September but still elevated. The Federal Reserve favors the trimmed mean as it excludes the most extreme price changes in consumer goods and services each month. Looking out longer term , the six-month view annualized rate rose to 3.3% from 3.0%. The 12 month estimate rose to 2.6% from 2.3%. The numbers are lower than the traditional … Continue reading “Dallas Fed October Trimmed Mean PCE Falls For The Month But Still Higher on Year”

US New Home Sales Miss Forecasts in October, Revised Lower in September

US new home sales for October were 745K vs 800K estimate. The prior month of 800K was revised sharply lower to 742K) However, the median sales price increased to $407,700 in October, the highest on record.  That was the largest increase in the median sales price on record as it increased to $407,700 in October. October US New Home Sales US October new home sales 745K vs 800K expected Prior 800K (revised to 742K) On a year-over-year basis, new home sales … Continue reading “US New Home Sales Miss Forecasts in October, Revised Lower in September”

US Durable Goods Fell Again In October With Slumping Aircraft Orders

US durable goods orders fell 0.5 percent in October, following after a 0.4 percent decrease in September. Transportation equipment (-2.6 percent), specifically nondefense aircraft and parts (-14.5 percent) and defense aircraft and parts (-21.8 percent).   Total durable goods orders rose 1.8% month-over-month in August (consensus +0.6%). October Durable Goods Orders Highlights US Durable Goods Orders Oct P: -0.5% (est 0.2%; prev -0.3%; prevR -0.4%) US Durables Ex-Transportation Oct P: 0.5% (est 0.5%; prev 0.5%; prevR 0.7) Orders declined for … Continue reading “US Durable Goods Fell Again In October With Slumping Aircraft Orders”

US Initial Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969

Initial jobless claims continue to fall. Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level of initial claims since November 15, 1969. The labor market continues to recover from the coronavirus economic burdens. Initial claims by 71,000 to 199,000 in the week ended November 20th. Demand for workers remains strong as the economy rebounds. US initial jobless claims and continuing claims for current week Initial jobless claims 20 Nov 199K vs 265K estimate. Prior week 268k revised to 270k … Continue reading “US Initial Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Since 1969”

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Raised Rate 25 Basis Points as Expected

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its Official Cash Rate from 0.50% to 0.75% as expected as capacity pressures have continued to tighten. RBNZ says headline CPI inflation is expected to measure above 5 percent. Reserve Bank of New Zealand raise its Official Cash Rate from 0.50% to 0.75% The rise in the official cash rate comes after last month’s which was the first since 2014 when the OCR hit a post-GFC peak of 3.5 per cent. RBNZ projections … Continue reading “Reserve Bank of New Zealand Raised Rate 25 Basis Points as Expected”

Baltic Exchange’s Dry Bulk Sea Freight Index Recovers Off Five Month Low As Chinese Steel Futures Prices Jump

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index extended it’s gains to third straight winning session Monday. The BDI rose 3.6% to 2,645 its highest since November 15th. On June 17th the index was at 2,426. Despite recent volatility in vessel rates, dry bulk spot rates are expected to stabilize in November-December before a “seasonally soft” first quarter of 2022, shipbroker Jefferies said in a weekly note. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a composite of the dry bulk timecharter … Continue reading “Baltic Exchange’s Dry Bulk Sea Freight Index Recovers Off Five Month Low As Chinese Steel Futures Prices Jump”

Jerome Powell Re-nominated Fed Chair With Lael Brainard Vice-Chair

In what the Press had us believe was a close race The White House took the sensible route and nominated Jerome Powell for a second four-year term, according to a statement. PredictIt had Powell at a 79% favorite. Lael Brainard will be nominated as vice-chair replacing Richard Clarida. She was expected to get vice-chair of supervision if not chair. The White House said both Powell and Brainard share the administration’s focus on ensuring that economic growth broadly benefits all workers … Continue reading “Jerome Powell Re-nominated Fed Chair With Lael Brainard Vice-Chair”

Fed’s Waller Wants a Faster Taper With Concern If Inflation Embedded Into Wage Demands

The Federal Reserve is continuing to voice it’s concern about inflation, wages and disparities between those who benefited from asset inflation and those who have been hurt by it. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday the rapid improving job market market and deteriorating inflation data have pushed him towards favoring a faster pace of tapering and more rapid removal of accommodation. “The rapid improvement in the labor market and the deteriorating inflation data have pushed me towards favoring a … Continue reading “Fed’s Waller Wants a Faster Taper With Concern If Inflation Embedded Into Wage Demands”