Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Soft Commodities Coffee & Sugar Prices Higher on Tight Supply

Commodities continued to feel the impact of weather and supply impacts. Managed money demand for soft commodities extended to a third week with the tight supply outlook supporting a rally in coffee prices this week of over 8%. Raw sugar futures in the US continued to rise to over ten-year highs accelerating after breaking through the high from late February spurred on by a number of factors. Crude oil consolidated it’s rally, WTI rose 2.3%. Gold pulled back, but closed … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Soft Commodities Coffee & Sugar Prices Higher on Tight Supply”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Oil and Biofuel Complex Soars Following OPEC Move

In a shortened week with Easter commodities markets were highlighted by the OPEC surprise production cut sending oil prices up 6% Monday which also pumped commodities related to biofuels. Ethanol rose 8.56%, Sugar rose 6.2%. WTI and WTI both rose 6.32%. Gasoline rose 6.2%. Natural gas saw no benefit falling 8.17% and was the weakest commodity we cover. Gold closed over $2000 with help from lower yields hitting the USD. There were some safe haven buys and with the BRICs … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Oil and Biofuel Complex Soars Following OPEC Move”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Bullish Hammers in Oil and Copper

Commodities closed with a flurry Friday along with risk on assets as the first quarter of 2023 came to an end. Copper and oil stood out, both with the same vulnerability. A bullish weekly hammer formed on copper prices, suggesting demand above $4.00 A bullish monthly hammer formed on WTI crude, which suggests demand above $64 which we had seen on a number of assaults being repelled. The oil complex continued to strengthen after it was unwound with the bank … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Bullish Hammers in Oil and Copper”

Orange Juice, Cocoa and Sugar Best Commodities in First Quarter, Natural Gas Worst

Commodities mostly declined in the first quarter of 2023, with the energy sector leading the way lower, markets experienced risk aversion shocks in March by sudden stressors from the U.S. banking system. The S&P GSCI index was down over 7% and the Bloomberg commodity index dropped 6.5% in the first quarter with global central bank rate hikes, weakness in China among changing demand pictures. Energy fell the most, with the S&P GSCI Energy index down 12% quarter to date. Prices … Continue reading “Orange Juice, Cocoa and Sugar Best Commodities in First Quarter, Natural Gas Worst”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Lean Hogs, Oats and Cocoa Prices Higher

The energy complex continued to unwind this week as risk came off with the bank chaos and margin risk was taken off. Volatility again soared in all markets, the VIX up 6.7 % after 22% the week prior, though off it’s highs. Silver futures caught a bid after not running with gold the week prior. Copper, with the same vulnerability as oil fell 3.36%, it had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities and is a key … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Lean Hogs, Oats and Cocoa Prices Higher”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Oil Breaks Down, While Silver and Gold Bounce

The energy complex continued to unwind this week as risk came off with the bank chaos and margin risk was taken off. Volatility again soared in all markets, the VIX up 6.7 % after 22% the week prior, though off it’s highs. Silver futures caught a bid after not running with gold the week prior. Copper, with the same vulnerability as oil fell 3.36%, it had been a leader in the risk on movement for commodities and is a key … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Oil Breaks Down, While Silver and Gold Bounce”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Natural Gas Gives It All Back as OJ Recovers

After bouncing off multi lows below $2 to gain 18.53% last week benchmark HH natural gas gave it all back falling 19.04% on the week, spitting those five-week highs.  Volatility soared in all markets with the collapse of US regional Banks, the VIX up 22% for the week, even that off it’s highs. Orange Juice futures bounced back 6.85% after falling 12.56% the week prior after just hitting record high prices. Copper fell 1.48%, it had been a leader in … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Natural Gas Gives It All Back as OJ Recovers”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Natural Gas Bounce Fires Up While Coffee and OJ Spill Over

From the depths of despair natural gas futures continued to bounce off multi lows below $2 for a seventh consecutive session Friday to gain 18.53% on the week. Benchmark HH moved to the highest in almost five weeks.  Weather creating volatility as it does in the agriculture sectors. Arabica coffee futures fell 8.82% retreating from near 4-month highs. Orange Juice futures fell 12.56% after just hitting record high prices. Copper rallied 3.01%, it had been a leader in the risk … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Natural Gas Bounce Fires Up While Coffee and OJ Spill Over”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Natural Gas Slapped Again While Coffee and Cocoa Rally

Like a scratch record natural gas got spanked again after what turned out to be a week-long reprieve. Volatility continued unabashed in many assets and commodities with the rise in yields. Short squeeze dynamics and the unwind of hedges remain at play and tend to have an exaggerated impact on illiquid instruments. Weather creating volatility as it does in the ags, Arabica coffee futures surged to a near 4-month high amid concerns over tightening supplies. Brazil’s largest arabica growing region, … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Natural Gas Slapped Again While Coffee and Cocoa Rally”

Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Energy Complex Futures Base, Lumber Short Squeeze Implodes

Volatility continued unabashed in many assets and commodities, we saw a reversal this week in the short squeeze induced moves, with the surge in yields. It was interesting to see Lumber futures reversing notable early-2023 outperformance. Short squeeze dynamics and the unwind of hedges tend to have an exaggerated impact on illiquid instruments. The Goldman Sachs Short Index is a helpful guide for volatile futures, it sank 9.7%, reducing y-t-d gains to 15% as the equities short squeeze reversed sharply … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Weekly Outlook: Energy Complex Futures Base, Lumber Short Squeeze Implodes”