FAO World Food Price Index Fell in January 2024 to lowest level since February 2021

World food prices as measured by the FAO Food Price Index continued to fall, down for a sixth month to 118 index points in January 2024, the lowest level since February 2021. The index is 13.7 points (10.4%) lower from a year ago, well off the record hit in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Cereals prices were down 2.2% to December 2020-lows as global wheat export prices declined amid strong competition among exporters and arrival of recently harvested supplies … Continue reading “FAO World Food Price Index Fell in January 2024 to lowest level since February 2021”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Energy in Focus as Oil Prices Soar, Gasoline and Heating Oil Retrace

Energy prices were the focus this week with oil prices up for the seventh straight day Friday breaking out to the highest levels of the year. WTI futures rose 7.56% this week, the biggest weekly gain since March. Brent was up +6.11%, Gasoline was down -1.93% and heating oil down -4.73% giving back some of last week’s gain on the Marathon refinery fire. Lumber gave back another 2%. Oats gave back 2% of last week’s rally 8%. Precious metals were … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Energy in Focus as Oil Prices Soar, Gasoline and Heating Oil Retrace”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Oats and Silver Prices Rally, Wheat and Lumber Fall

Another week of volatility in commodity markets as China’s weakness dampens demand expectations. WTI and Brent crude oil futures were down again however heating oil and gasoline were sharply higher with the Marathon refinery fire a risk to supplies. Lumber gave back 3% of last week’s 8% rally. We have demand issues in many commodities but also eyes on the weather with drought and war conditions affecting individual commodities. Oats rose over 8%, taking Dec back above the $5 mark … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Oats and Silver Prices Rally, Wheat and Lumber Fall”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Déjà Vu, Natural Gas Dumped, Orange Juice and Lumber Bounce

A week of sharp reversals as China’s weakness dampens demand expectations, after a week of energy prices outperforming, natural gas prices sold off 7%. WTI and Brent crude oil futures had their first down week in eight weeks. We saw sharp rises in orange juice and lumber of around 8%. OJ which has been one of the biggest rises this year with record low production. Lumber prices reversed which have been drifting lower. We have demand issues ij many commodities … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Déjà Vu, Natural Gas Dumped, Orange Juice and Lumber Bounce”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Oil Futures Seventh Straight Weekly Rise, Gasoline Prices Wagging the Dog

Again, energy prices outperform. WTI and Brent crude oil futures both saw their seventh straight weekly gain in their longest winning streaks since February last year. Gasoline and diesel prices increasingly the tail wagging the dog, this week Gasoline +5.79% and heating oil rose +1.50%. In a week where we had mixed signals from inflation reports they are shaking broader inflation expectations. Inflation continues to be afflicted by outside pampering and pestering. Energy prices have bounced back with OPEC production … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Oil Futures Seventh Straight Weekly Rise, Gasoline Prices Wagging the Dog”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Oil Continues Higher, Grains Sold Off Despite Black Sea Threats

In the energy space oil prices closed towards their highs this week. WTI futures were up 2.78% for the week, gasoline fell -3.59%, Brent rose +2.00% and heating oil rose +3.81%. The thawing of the trade war between China and Australia also spurred oil and iron ore prices. Singapore iron ore futures on Friday as traders hopes for a more substantial aid for China’s property sector continue to bubble along. In grains, wheat fell nearly 10% and corn nearly 7%, … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Oil Continues Higher, Grains Sold Off Despite Black Sea Threats”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Orange Juice Rally Continues, Lean Hogs Slump

Orange juice futures continued its rally another 6% after it soared over 10% the prior week with low Florida production. On the flip side lean hogs fell 15.5% where October is a $18.17 discount to August, compared to the 10-yr average discount of $13. oats rose 8% and wheat over 5%. In the energy space heating oil jumped 7.6%, WTI crude oil rose 4.6%, Brent crude was up 4.5% and gasoline jumped 2.8%. Natural gas fell 2.5%. Rise off asset … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Orange Juice Rally Continues, Lean Hogs Slump”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Orange Juice, Oats, Natural Gas and Gasoline Prices all Higher

Weather and geopolitics impacted food and energy commodities this week as we head into the July Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Orange juice futures soared over 10% oats rose 8% and wheat over 5%. In the energy space natural gas rose 7.5%, Gasoline and heating oil both jumped 5%. Copper and oil continued their moves higher on their own as the dollar recovered this week. Outside of the impact of Russia blocking off ships trafficking Ukraine wheat, grains continue to be … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Orange Juice, Oats, Natural Gas and Gasoline Prices all Higher”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Falling US Dollar Lifts Oil and Copper Prices

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped a solid 2.4% this week to 99.96 with the lower greenback and soft-landing view commodity prices rose this week, including oil (+1.9%) and copper (+3.8%). The key commodities ignored weak data out of China that almost routinely triggered more calls for more policy stimulus. Chinese trade figures disappointed. Imports fell by 2.6% y/y and exports fell by 12.4% y/y (consensus -10) in USD terms but also fell by 8.3% y/y in yuan. The strong U.S. … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Falling US Dollar Lifts Oil and Copper Prices”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Natural Gas Slumps, Oats and Orange Juice Soar

In a shortened but volatile week we saw weather impact futures on both ends of the spectrum. Oats and orange juice soared while US benchmark HH fell 8.4% for the week giving back some of that 31.89% gain in the second three months of the year. Gold futures got our attention on Friday after the U.S. Department of Labor’s June jobs report having the largest daily percentage gain in a month on Friday. The move reversed gold prices slumping to … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Natural Gas Slumps, Oats and Orange Juice Soar”