Brutal 2-year Treasury Bond Auction with Worst Tail Since Feb 2020

Bond markets have been rocked in the past week as Central Banks globally ratcheted up rates. The benchmark 10-year Gilt was ravaged on Friday and today after the Bank of England released a statement. U.S. Treasuries haven’t been left out. U.S. Treasuries sit on their lows after widening their initial losses after today’s $43 bln 2-yr note auction met weak demand. The high yield of 4.290% stopped through the when-issued yield by 1.6 bps. The desk gave a D- rating on the auction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are near the low for the day.

In just one month the US government is paying nearly a full percentage point, almost $1 billion in extra interest over the life of these bonds.

Today’s $43 bln bid-to-cover ratio (2.51x) and indirect takedown (53.0%) were below average.  The desk gave a D- rating on the auction.

  • The domestic demand was below its twelve-month average indicative of softer domestic demand
  • International demand (indirect) was also comfortably below the six-month average
  • Primary dealers were left with 21.9 % versus normal around 22.2%

Auction Highlights

  • Duration: 2 Years
  • Amount:  $43 billion
  • High yield 4.290%
  • WI 4.274%
  • Tail -1.3 BPs.
  • bid to cover 2.51x vs 12-month average of 2.56X
  • Dealers 21.9% vs. 12-month average 22.2%
  • Direct 24.8% vs. 12-month average of 19.6%
  • Indirects 53.3% vs.12-month average of 58.2%

Auction grade: D-

Yields after the auction

  • 2-yr: +14 bps to 4.35%
  • 3-yr: +15 bps to 4.38%
  • 5-yr: +19 bps to 4.18%
  • 10-yr: +20 bps to 3.90%
  • 30-yr: +10 bps to 3.71%

Prior auction results:

  • High yield: 3.307%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.49
  • Indirect bid: 59.7%
  • Direct bid: 17.3%

Average results of previous 12 auctions:

  • High yield: 1.800%
  • Bid-to-cover: 2.56
  • Indirect bid: 58.2%
  • Direct bid: 19.6%

Live From the Pit

From The TradersCommunity US News Desk