Baltic Dry Bulk Sea Freight Index Supported by Highest Panamax Since Sept 9

Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index gained 11.4% this week, its biggest rise since Oct. 7. The panamax index supported the overall index, rising 9.4% this week, its highest since Sept. 9.  The capesize index after jumping 43.8% last week, gave back 5.8% this week. The supramax index extended its decline for a fifth straight session. Coming closer to the Christmas period owners will be very aware of the potential seasonal low period that looms in Q1.

Capesize Iron ore loading

Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) Segments (December 2, 2022)

  • The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index on Friday fell 14 points, or about 1%, to 1,324 to 1,324 a seven-week high. The overall index, which factors in rates for capesize, panamax and supramax shipping vessels, for the week gained 11.4% this week, its highest since early October 7.
  • The capesize index reversed last week’s winning streak to be down 51 points, or about 3.3%, at 1,519 Friday. It posted a weekly loss of 5.8%. (Last week the index gained 43.8% to a two-month high.)
  • Average daily earnings for capesizes, which typically transport 150,000-tonne cargoes of coal and steel-making ingredient iron ore, decreased $422 to $12,598.
  • Th panamax index gained 16 points, or about 1%, to 1,618 Friday. It rose 9.4% this week, its highest since Sept. 9.  Average daily earnings for panamax vessels, which usually carry coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 tonnes to 70,000 tonnes, increased by $142 to $14,564.
  • The supramax index lost 3 points to 1,162, extending its decline for a fifth straight session quickly negating the brief rise last week that ended a seven-week losing streak.
BDI December 2, 2022

Baltic Dry hit a temporary peak on May 20, 2008, when the index hit 11,793. The lowest level ever reached was on Wednesday the 10th of February 2016, when the index dropped to 290 points.

Factors influencing Freight right now

  • The Biden administration sweeping export restrictions against Russia, hammering its access to global exports following Moscow’s attack on Ukraine.
  • Maersk, largest container shipping company after earnings; “It is clear that freight rates have peaked and started to normalize during the quarter, driven by both decreasing demand and easing of supply chain congestion”
  • Port of New York and New Jersey is the top among all U.S. ports for a third-consecutive month based on October data.
  • Dalian iron ore futures rose on Friday to post weekly gains, buoyed by expectations that top steelmaker China would relax its strict COVID-19 restrictions, lifting demand sentiment. 
Dry Bulk Rotes Source: SEC

Port Delays

CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map Oct 28, 2022*
  • Port of New York and New Jersey is the top among all U.S. ports for a second-consecutive month based on September data.
  • One reason for the East Coast port gains is fears of West Coast labor strikes. This week, port worker union reps and Pacific Coast port ownership are meeting for negotiations.
  • Fears of a nationwide rail strike have escalated again, and 322 state, local, and federal trade associations sent a joint letter to President Biden on Friday about their concerns.
  • That diversion of containers to Long Beach, in addition to the continued re-routing of containers to the East Coast, led to the Port of New York to take the No. 1 spot in processing import and export containers in August. Port of Los Angeles fell to third.
  • The CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map for the United States shows New York has 11 vessels waiting with an average wait time of 2.8 days. Savannah has the most vessels with 29 and a wait of over 10 days. In the Gulf, Houston has 11 vessels waiting for almost five days.
CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map Sep 7, 2022*
  • The U.S. is the top trade partner, representing 30% of Port of Liverpool volume.
  • Approximately $1 billion in trade is moved weekly at the Port of Liverpool.
  • Diageo, Caterpillar, Donaldson, and Xerox are just some companies who use Liverpool port.
  • “The economic and political climate in the U.K. is volatile and this sustained disruption will start to cause sustained problems at a time when imports are becoming very expensive due to the weak pound and some U.S. exporters will be starting to price risk back into their contracts.”
  • Leading container group A.P. Moller-Maersk told its customers last quarter it was struggling to move goods around the world.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a composite of the dry bulk timecharter averages and provides a continuous time series since 1985. The BDI is a composite of and factors in rates for Capesize, Panamax and Supramax Timecharter Averages. It is reported around the world as a proxy for dry bulk shipping stocks as well as a general shipping market bellwether.

  • Baltic Capesize Index (40%)
  • Baltic Panamax Index (30%) 
  • Baltic Supramax Index (30%) 

There a number of negative catalysts stemming from the climate and supply crisis stifling demand. While we are seeing easing congestion at Chinese ports and thin coal cargo flows out of the Pacific are weighing on capesizes. Steel futures prices in China jumped, with hot-rolled coils and construction rebar climbing more than 4% in intraday trade to narrow the gap with spot prices, as traders cheered a marginal improvement in consumption of industrial metals.

With China striving to ease it’s energy crisis by limiting steel production to limit industrial power usage portside inventory of iron ore has swollen to the highest level in 31 months. China is the world’s top steel producer and their restrictions have crushed demand. for iron ore.

What are the Baltic indices?

From The Baltic Exchange

The Baltic indices are based on assessments of the cost of transporting various bulk cargoes, both wet (eg crude oil and oil products),dry (eg coal and iron ore), gas (LNG and LPG) made by leading shipbroking houses located around the world on a per tonne and daily hire basis. The information is collated and published by the Baltic Exchange. We also provide daily container market assessments in collaboration with Freightos and a weekly air freight index as well as assessments on vessel operating costs, Sale & Purchase and vessel recycling prices. 

The principal dry cargo indices are:

  • The Baltic Exchange Capesize Index (BCI); The Brazil-China iron ore route is often considered the key driver of rates for Capesize vessels, which are commonly employed on the route.
  • Baltic Exchange Panamax Index (BPI)
  • Baltic Exchange Supramax Index (BSI)
  • Baltic Exchange Handysize index (BHSI).
  • Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) is calculated by taking the timecharter components of the Baltic’s capesize, panamax and supramax indices. 

The Baltic Exchange International Tanker Routes (BITR) reports on international oil routes and makes up the Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and the Baltic Exchange Clean Tanker Index (BCTI). 

We cover the gas markets through our LNG (BLNG) and LPG (BLPG) assessments. 

Shipping investors are able to assess the health of vessel earnings through our quarterly operating expenses assessments, as well as our weekly Sale & Purchase and Recycling assessments. 
Forward curves for all listed freight contracts are also published on a daily basis.

*The CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data providers are artificial intelligence and predictive analytics company Everstream Analytics; global freight booking platform Freightos, creator of the Freightos Baltic Dry Index; logistics provider OL USA; supply chain intelligence platform FreightWaves; supply chain platform Blume Global; third-party logistics provider Orient Star Group; marine analytics firm MarineTraffic; maritime visibility data company Project44; maritime transport data company MDS Transmodal UK; ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform Xeneta; leading provider of research and analysis Sea-Intelligence ApS; Crane Worldwide Logistics; and air, DHL Global Forwarding; freight logistics provider Seko Logistics; and Planet, provider of global, daily satellite imagery and geospatial solutions.

Source: The Baltic Exchange CNBC

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk