The US dollar continued its assault on the Yuan after President Xi Jinping tightened his grip on power. However, the dollar pulled back against the bulk of currencies as rates pulled back ahead of next week’s FOMC in extremely overcrowded trades. The strong dollar is likely to negatively affect the US economic outlook and could alter the Federal Reserve terminal interest rate, economists surveyed by Bloomberg said. Just 28% saw the currency strength as unlikely to have any impact. The … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Strong US Dollar Heading into Fed’s FOMC”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Yen at 32 Year Highs and Yuan 14 Year Lows with Asian Currency Rout
Asian currencies bore the brunt of the US strength this week, though there was some relief Friday in extremely overcrowded trades from a combination of BoJ intervention and Fed Speak. The renminbi (or yuan) fell another 0.5% versus the dollar and is down 12% y-t-d) to the lowest since January 2008 as Chinese credit markets implode. The USDJPY traded to 151.94, 32-year highs which brought intervention from the BoJ and sent down 400 pips lower, is a high in? The … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Yen at 32 Year Highs and Yuan 14 Year Lows with Asian Currency Rout”
U.S. Energy Stocks Short Interest Highest level since October 2020, are The Shorts Right?
Short interest in U.S. energy stocks has risen to the highest level since October 2020, to 3.9% according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Markets are heading into the third quarter energy earnings season with Oil Service giant Schlumberger and Oil majors Exxon and Chevron due up in the next few weeks. The S&P 500 Energy sector is up the only sector up year to date with the S&P 500 down -22.5% year to date. Natural gas prices have lost nearly … Continue reading “U.S. Energy Stocks Short Interest Highest level since October 2020, are The Shorts Right?”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Jobs Report and Hawkish Fed Boost Dollar
The US dollar rose sharply on September US Nonfarm Payrolls rising 263,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.7% as the labor force participation rate fell. Stocks collapsed and yields rose as the weight of all the hawkish Fed talk this week took their toll. Sterling fell nearly a full cent to 1.1063 from as high as 1.1225 before the jobs report. AUD, NZD also fell around 100 pips, EURUSD closed near the lows, even with oil soaring … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Jobs Report and Hawkish Fed Boost Dollar”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical and Debt Pricing Shifting Risks
Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook – US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate. Currency markets continued to dislocate the eye of the storm led to the Bank of England’s new purchases of Gilts and a reassessment of the trajectory of Fed policy also risk assets continued to collapse, in equities and futures. The US dollar … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Geopolitical and Debt Pricing Shifting Risks”
Using The Market Dislocation Index to Enhance Portfolio Risk Adjusted Returns
We have seen the dislocation of financial markets at breakneck pace within a plethora of imploding asset values and credit balloons. Markets are operating under extremely stressful conditions and experiencing large, widespread asset mispricing. Significant market dislocations have become not uncommon over the past 20 years. They can provide attractive buying opportunities for those prepared to provide liquidity (at a discount) when sellers demand. It’s all down to timing and capitalizing on dislocations has the potential to enhance a portfolio’s … Continue reading “Using The Market Dislocation Index to Enhance Portfolio Risk Adjusted Returns”
Cable Pounded Again After Indecisive Bank of England Statement
The markets had been waiting for a statement from the Bank of England bout the collapsing Pound. Nothing it seems at this point other than watching. The BoE highlighted the ‘next scheduled meeting’ hinting no intra-meeting move is coming. This could be a game of course, knowing they need a short market for maximum impact. The Sterling and Gilt markets were looking for a stronger hint on intervention. GBPUSD is down 202 pips to 1.0639 after bouncing earlier BOE statement … Continue reading “Cable Pounded Again After Indecisive Bank of England Statement”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Threats of Bank of England and Bank of Japan Intervention
Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook – US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate. Global currency markets dislocated, creating a huge predicament for the global leveraged speculating community. Following a week saturated with central bank decisions the US dollar continued another week higher over major and minor currencies globally fueled by rising US interest rates. The yen … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Threats of Bank of England and Bank of Japan Intervention”
Stock Market Bearish Sentiment at Highest Level Since 2009
Investor sentiment is a key gauge for the velocity and voracity of a market potential move. A dark cloud has come over the markets in the past few weeks after higher CPI numbers in the US, shocking inflation report in Germany, the threat of war and a hawkish Federal Reserve. Globally Central banks have been raising rates at breakneck speed. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey reflects this mood with the percentage of individual investors describing their six-month outlook for stocks … Continue reading “Stock Market Bearish Sentiment at Highest Level Since 2009”
Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Pound at 1985 Lows Heading into FOMC, Bank of England and BoJ
Forex Weekly Analysis and Outlook – US Dollar, Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, Turkish Lira, Mexican Peso. Currency dynamics are complex. There are myriad facets to analyze and contemplate. Heading into a week saturated with central bank decisions the US dollar continued another week higher over major and minor currencies globally fueled by rising US interest rates. The yen and won fell to fresh historical lows against the dollar with verbal BoK … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Pound at 1985 Lows Heading into FOMC, Bank of England and BoJ”