Commodity Traders Outlook: Energy in Focus as Oil Prices Soar, Gasoline and Heating Oil Retrace

Energy prices were the focus this week with oil prices up for the seventh straight day Friday breaking out to the highest levels of the year. WTI futures rose 7.56% this week, the biggest weekly gain since March. Brent was up +6.11%, Gasoline was down -1.93% and heating oil down -4.73% giving back some of last week’s gain on the Marathon refinery fire. Lumber gave back another 2%. Oats gave back 2% of last week’s rally 8%. Precious metals were … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Energy in Focus as Oil Prices Soar, Gasoline and Heating Oil Retrace”

Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Dollar and Swiss Franc Attracting Safe Haven Flows

The US dollar rally continued again this week benefiting from safe haven and yield chasing flows. 10-year Treasury yields underpinning yen pairs with carry trade impact. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole renewed commitment to combating inflation prompted traders to elevate their expectations for another rate hike within the year. The yen fell to ¥146.6 per dollar after Jay Powell’s speech at one point. That was the lowest level against the dollar since November on Friday, pressuring the … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – US Dollar and Swiss Franc Attracting Safe Haven Flows”

Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Yield Curve Pressured Ahead of September Data Drop

More financial conditions tightening this week as “risk on” has begun the transition to “risk off,” with the system now vulnerable to an abrupt change in the liquidity backdrop. The Treasury market gyrated all week. The 2-yr note yield trading range was 4.92% to 5.09% and settled the week at 5.05%, up 14 basis points for the week. 5.09% in Friday trading surpassing the March 8th (pre-SVB) peak to the high back to June 2007. The 10-yr note yield trading … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Yield Curve Pressured Ahead of September Data Drop”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Oats and Silver Prices Rally, Wheat and Lumber Fall

Another week of volatility in commodity markets as China’s weakness dampens demand expectations. WTI and Brent crude oil futures were down again however heating oil and gasoline were sharply higher with the Marathon refinery fire a risk to supplies. Lumber gave back 3% of last week’s 8% rally. We have demand issues in many commodities but also eyes on the weather with drought and war conditions affecting individual commodities. Oats rose over 8%, taking Dec back above the $5 mark … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Oats and Silver Prices Rally, Wheat and Lumber Fall”

Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Risk On to Risk Off Transition Feeding Emerging Market Contagion

Financial conditions tightened, “risk on” has begun the transition to “risk off,” with the system now vulnerable to an abrupt change in the liquidity backdrop. U.S. Treasuries closed out a turbulent a down week with a strong Friday rebound 2-yr notes reclaimed the bulk of this week’s loss as the long end continued its recent underperformance. Friday saw safe haven buying as there appears realization that China’s economy and its real estate sector in particular are of morose health. This … Continue reading “Bond Traders Weekly Outlook: Risk On to Risk Off Transition Feeding Emerging Market Contagion”

Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Weak China Pressures Yen & Commodity Currencies Further

The US dollar rally continued again this week benefiting from safe haven and yield chasing flows. 10-year Treasury yields underpinning yen pairs with carry trade impact. The move higher in US yields again sees “risk off” extended to the emerging markets. EM currencies again under pressure with global risk aversion. We see the folly of BRICs and BRIC wannabes as the Turkish Lira hits another all-time low and the imploding Chinese recovery impacts the Yuan. The only currency the US … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Weak China Pressures Yen & Commodity Currencies Further”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Déjà Vu, Natural Gas Dumped, Orange Juice and Lumber Bounce

A week of sharp reversals as China’s weakness dampens demand expectations, after a week of energy prices outperforming, natural gas prices sold off 7%. WTI and Brent crude oil futures had their first down week in eight weeks. We saw sharp rises in orange juice and lumber of around 8%. OJ which has been one of the biggest rises this year with record low production. Lumber prices reversed which have been drifting lower. We have demand issues ij many commodities … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Déjà Vu, Natural Gas Dumped, Orange Juice and Lumber Bounce”

Crude Oil Up 7 Straight Weeks, Why and Where from Here

Oil prices have been on the rise while other risk assets have been on the slide, why is that? We look at the fundamentals and technical analysis behind the rise of WTI and Brent crude oil futures both up seven straight weeks. The longest winning streaks since February last year. The geopolitical and derivative frameworks have much to do with energy prices, how do we trade and invest with that. For August WTI is up 17.8%, Gasoline is up 12.6%, … Continue reading “Crude Oil Up 7 Straight Weeks, Why and Where from Here”

Commodity Traders Outlook: Oil Futures Seventh Straight Weekly Rise, Gasoline Prices Wagging the Dog

Again, energy prices outperform. WTI and Brent crude oil futures both saw their seventh straight weekly gain in their longest winning streaks since February last year. Gasoline and diesel prices increasingly the tail wagging the dog, this week Gasoline +5.79% and heating oil rose +1.50%. In a week where we had mixed signals from inflation reports they are shaking broader inflation expectations. Inflation continues to be afflicted by outside pampering and pestering. Energy prices have bounced back with OPEC production … Continue reading “Commodity Traders Outlook: Oil Futures Seventh Straight Weekly Rise, Gasoline Prices Wagging the Dog”

Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Higher Yields Pressure Yen & Emerging Currencies

The US dollar rallied, benefiting from safe haven and yield chasing flows. Treasury yields finished near the highs of Friday and not far from last week’s highs as curve steepeners continued on hopes for a soft landing with PPI slightly higher but CPI lower than forecasts. The move higher in US yields again sees “risk off” extended to the emerging markets. EM currencies quickly under pressure with global risk aversion. We see the folly of BRICs and BRIC wannabes as … Continue reading “Forex Traders Weekly Outlook – Higher Yields Pressure Yen & Emerging Currencies”