Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week with OPEC and STEO

EIA reported a US crude build of +3.730Mbbls fueled by a 2.6mbd increase in imports to 8.3mbd, the highest since 2018, while exports slumped to a two-month low at 3.2mbd. Gasoline stocks rose +2.566Mbbls. Distillates rose +0.881Mbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing stocks fell with a -1.593Mbbls draw. Domestic US oil production rose 100k to 13.2mbpd just off the all-time high 13.3mbpd. Refinery demand rose with refinery utilization fell 0.40% to 95%. There was +0.339Mbbls added to SPR inventory … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week with OPEC and STEO”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Production and Weather Outlook for Summer

Natural gas prices have had another volatile week after hitting 4-3/4-month prompt futures high on hotter-than-normal US temperatures forecasts from June 18-25. However, July Nymex natural gas on Wednesday closed down -2.68% on supply concerns. As of May 31, US natural gas inventories were up +13.5% y/y and were +25.1% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample gas supplies. EQT Corp., the leading producer of natural gas in North America announced it is now reinstating the 1 billion cubic feet … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Production and Weather Outlook for Summer”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas May Recap and Outlook for Summer

The EIA reported the natural gas storage build in the U.S. last week came in larger than expected with +98 Bcf in storage with consensus a build of +84 Bcf. For perspective in the same week last year stocks were +105Bcf, with a five-year average +103Bcf. The withdrawal season ended with stocks at the highest level in years. As of May 17, natural gas inventories were up +16.1% y/y and were +28.8% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample gas … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas May Recap and Outlook for Summer”

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead

EIA reported a US crude build of +1.233Mbbls. Gasoline stocks rose +2.102Mbbls. Distillates rose +3.197Mbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing stocks rose with a +0.854M build. Domestic US oil production was unchanged at 13.1mbpd just off the all-time high 13.3mbpd. Refinery demand rose with refinery utilization rising +1.10% to 94.1%. There was +0.900Mbbls added to SPR inventory WoW. The market has refocused on the delay of possible rate cuts by the federal Reserve this year as inflation lingers. The … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead”

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead

EIA reported a US crude draw of -4.156Mbbls. Gasoline stocks rose +2.022Mbbls. Distillates rose +2.544Mbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing stocks fell with -1.766Mbbls draw. Domestic US oil production was unchanged at 13.1mbpd just off the all-time high 13.3mbpd. Refinery demand rose with refinery utilization rising +2.50% to 93%. There was +0.900Mbbls added to SPR inventory WoW. The market has refocused on the delay of possible rate cuts by the federal Reserve this year as inflation lingers. The last … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Recap and Outlook with Volatile Weather

The EIA reported the natural gas storage build in the U.S. last week came in larger than expected with +84 Bcf in storage with consensus a build of +78 Bcf. For perspective in the same week last year stocks were +108Bcf, with a five-year average +104Bcf. The withdrawal season ended with stocks at the highest level in years. As of May 17, natural gas inventories were up +16.1% y/y and were +28.8% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling ample gas … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Recap and Outlook with Volatile Weather”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Recap and Outlook Heading into Summer

U.S. Natural Gas futures fell back from 4-1/4-month prompt futures high and closed sharply lower despite the EIA storage report showed inventories rose less than expected. The selling appeared from a long spec and ETF market overbought from to this week’s sharp rally. Prices have consolidated the recent bounce after snapping a three-week losing streak. We have now bounced almost 50% above the April 25 swing low around 1.58. Still, Henry Hub futures are still down about 10% so far … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Recap and Outlook Heading into Summer”

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead

Oil prices have fallen back after initially rising and continued uncertainty from the death of the Iranian President. The market has refocused on the delay of possible rate cuts by the federal Reserve this year as inflation lingers. The last FOMC communications struck a balance between ruling out nearer term easing, sticking to the line that the most likely next move is down, while pouring cool water on the risk of rate hikes. The higher interest rates depress consumer and … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead”

Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead

The EIA reported the natural gas storage build in the U.S. last week came in less than expected with +70Bcf in storage with consensus a build of +79Bcf. For perspective in the same week last year stocks were +93Bcf, with a five-year average +90Bcf. Total stocks at 2633 bcf reduced the surplus relative to the 5-yr avg from 34% to 30.8%. The withdrawal season has ended with stocks at the highest level in years. As of April 26, natural gas … Continue reading “Into The Vortex – Natural Gas Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead”

Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead

EIA reported a US crude draw of -2.508Mbbls. Gasoline stocks fell -0.235Mbbls. Distillates fell -0.045Mbbls in inventories. The WTI Futures Hub at Cushing stocks fell with -0.341Mbbls draw. Domestic US oil production was unchanged at 13.1mbpd just off the all-time high 13.3mbpd. Refinery demand rose with refinery utilization rising +1.90% to 90.4%. There was +0.600Mbbls added to SPR inventory WoW. West Texas Intermediate futures are around last Friday’s settle of $78.26 heading into the latest EIA report suggesting the market is pricing … Continue reading “Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Market Recap and Outlook for The Week Ahead”