The Biggest Pusher of Easy Money, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke Warns on Stagflation in New Book

What do you do you do when you are the man that espoused easy money through Quantitative Easing, took it to new levels and the bloated world you created implodes? You write a book about it of course. That’s exactly what former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has done and of course he warns in his new book that the United States could face simultaneous sky-high unemployment and inflation on levels not seen since the 1970s. Any mention of his … Continue reading “The Biggest Pusher of Easy Money, Former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke Warns on Stagflation in New Book”

US Mortgage Applications Slide 11% After Federal Reserve Raised Rates 50bps

The Mortgage Bankers Association showed mortgage applications in the US fell -11.0% after rising +2.0% last week. The Federal Reserve raised rates 50bps that week. The 30-year mortgage rate has been rising with yields with higher house prices in general. The purchase index slumped to its weakest level since May 2020 and the refinancing index to its lowest since January 2019.  Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 13 May 2022 US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 13 May -11.0% vs … Continue reading “US Mortgage Applications Slide 11% After Federal Reserve Raised Rates 50bps”

Dutch Central Bank Chief First ECB Governor To Raise Prospect of 50Bps Rate Rise

A top European Central Bank official has raised the prospect of a half percentage point rate increase in July. Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said if inflation continues to climb then rates may need to be raised. This was the first time such an aggressive shift has been suggested. The ECB left rates unchanged as expected in April. The bank left deposit facility interest rates at -.50%. Highlights Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot is one of the more … Continue reading “Dutch Central Bank Chief First ECB Governor To Raise Prospect of 50Bps Rate Rise”

Banco de México Raises Rates Again with Inflation Risk to Mexican Economy

The Mexican Central Bank, Banco de México raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 7.00% with the bank saying headline and core inflation forecasts were revised upwards. One dissenter voted to hike by 75 bps. The Mexico central bank Governing Board increased the target for the overnight interbank interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.00%. The vote was not unanimous. Voting in favor of the decision were Victoria Rodríguez, Galia Borja, Gerardo Esquivel, and Jonathan Heath. Voting in … Continue reading “Banco de México Raises Rates Again with Inflation Risk to Mexican Economy”

US Producer Price Inflation Rose 0.5% m/m and 11.0% y/y in April

US Producer price inflation continues elevated at a rapid pace, a long way from the Central Bank transitory mantra. Annual PPI came in at 11.0% (vs. 11.5% in March) core producer prices were up 8.8% (vs. +9.2% in March). March was the largest increase since data were first calculated in December 2009. Month-over-month the rise was 0.5% in April (consensus +0.5%), and core producer prices rose 0.4% m/m (consensus +0.6%).  April 2022 PPI The Producer Price Index for final demand … Continue reading “US Producer Price Inflation Rose 0.5% m/m and 11.0% y/y in April”

American Household Financial Stress Highest Level Since Outset of the Pandemic in April 2020

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell to 41.2 in May of 2022 from 45.5 in April only barely above March’s eight-year low of 41. Rising interest rates, Russia’s war in Ukraine, and China’s COVID-related lockdowns all impacted the mood.  The six-month outlook for the US economy tumbled 6.5 points to 33.2, the lowest level since August 2011. IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index May of 2022 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US fell to 41.2 in May of 2022 from 45.5 … Continue reading “American Household Financial Stress Highest Level Since Outset of the Pandemic in April 2020”

Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Warns on Worsening Liquidity Risks

The Federal Reserve released its twice–yearly report on financial hazards in its 2022 financial stability report warning the recent deterioration in liquidity has not been as extreme as in some past episodes but the risk of a sudden significant deterioration appears higher than normal. They also noted commodities have been subject to notable dysfunction. Federal Reserve 2022 financial stability report Highlights‘ “According to some measures, market liquidity has declined since late 2021 in the markets for recently-issued U.S. cash Treasury … Continue reading “Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report Warns on Worsening Liquidity Risks”

Bank of England Raises Interest Rates Fourth Time to 1.00% and Forecast 10% Inflation and Recession Early in 2023

The Bank of England MPC at its May meeting raised the bank rate by 25 bps from 0.75% to 1.00%, as expected. The vote was 6-3 vs 8-1 expected (Haskel, Mann, Saunders voted to raise bank rate 50 bps to 1.25%). The BoE said some further modest tightening may be appropriate in the coming months. The move followed a day after the Federal Reserve raised rates by a half of a percent at their May meeting. Inflation is at the … Continue reading “Bank of England Raises Interest Rates Fourth Time to 1.00% and Forecast 10% Inflation and Recession Early in 2023”

Federal Reserve Raises Rates 50 Basis Points First Time Since 2000 as Expected

The Federal Reserve raised rates by a half of a percent at their May meeting. This was the first time the bank raised rates this much since May 2000 when the Fed was led by Alan Greenspan. The Central Bank raised interest rates by 0.50% (to a target of 6.5%) back then. That was the last time the Fed would ever raise interest rates by that much in one move until day. The rate hike was priced in. The Balance … Continue reading “Federal Reserve Raises Rates 50 Basis Points First Time Since 2000 as Expected”

US Mortgage Applications Rise First Time in Two Months Ahead of Federal Reserve Expected to Raise Rates 50bps

The Mortgage Bankers Association showed mortgage applications in the US rose for the first time in 8 weeks. The 30-year mortgage rate has been moderating as yields stall somewhat ahead of the FOMC with higher house prices in general. The Federal Reserve is expected to rewind to May 2000 today, when “inflationary imbalances,” saw the Fed led by Alan Greenspan raise interest e rates by 0.50% to a target of 6.5%. That was the last time the Fed would ever … Continue reading “US Mortgage Applications Rise First Time in Two Months Ahead of Federal Reserve Expected to Raise Rates 50bps”