Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World

It is difficult to predict exactly what black swan events might occur in the future, as these events are by definition rare and unexpected. Critical thinking around past black swans gives a range of possibilities including, pandemics, cyber-attacks, natural disasters, major technological breakthroughs or disruptors, or a geopolitical event, such as a war or a political crisis. Of course, by their very nature the black swan could be from something totally unthought of. Expect the unexpected as a good way … Continue reading “Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World”

The Difference Between API and EIA Crude Oil Storage Reports

API (American Petroleum Institute) and EIA (Energy Information Administration) are two organizations that publish weekly reports on crude oil storage levels in the United States. The API report is based on data collected from a survey of oil storage facilities and is published on Tuesday afternoons, while the EIA report is based on data from the previous week and is released on Wednesday mornings. The report may be issued on a different date if a holiday falls during the week. … Continue reading “The Difference Between API and EIA Crude Oil Storage Reports”

Trading Natural Gas Futures Seems Very Risky, Why is That?

Natural gas futures prices have been extremely volatile in 2022 since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the stories of heavy losses by traders and speculators begs the question why. There are several reasons why trading natural gas futures can be risky. One reason is that the price of natural gas is highly volatile and can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. This makes it difficult to accurately predict the future price of natural gas, which can lead … Continue reading “Trading Natural Gas Futures Seems Very Risky, Why is That?”

Santa Clause Stock Market Rally and Window Dressing

Talking heads and brokers love to spout off about the Santa Claus rally at the end of each year. The Santa Claus rally is a term used to describe a phenomenon in which stock prices tend to rise in the last five days of the year, as well as the first two trading days of the new year. It was first defined in ‘The 1972 Stock Trader’s Almanac’ by Yale Hirsch. It is believed that this phenomenon is caused by … Continue reading “Santa Clause Stock Market Rally and Window Dressing”

Fund Manager Misery with Capitulation and Sentiment at Lehman Collapse Levels – BofA Survey

BofA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed the lowest equity allocation since Lehman Bros and the highest cash levels since 2001 as fund managers slashed their exposure to risk assets. These levels have not seen even during the global financial crisis. The markets in response on Tuesday in a sign of full capitulation amid a “dire” economic outlook rallied sharply by early afternoon the Dow at 31765.50 was +691.01 or +2.22%, Nasdaq 11695.85 +335.83 +2.96% and the SP 500 3931.38 +100.46 … Continue reading “Fund Manager Misery with Capitulation and Sentiment at Lehman Collapse Levels – BofA Survey”

Brazil Central Bank Aggressively Raises Rates For Tenth Consecutive Time, Another 100bp to 12.75%, Signals More To Come

Banco Central do Brasil​ again aggressively hiked its benchmark interest rate by 1.0% to 12.75%. It was the tenth consecutive interest rate hike since 2021 when the bank began its current tightening cycle early last year, the Selic was at a record low 2%. The lending rate is now at its highest level since 2017. The bank’s monetary policy committee (Copom) said it expects to raise the Selic by a smaller magnitude. Inflation is the issue of concern. The institution’s … Continue reading “Brazil Central Bank Aggressively Raises Rates For Tenth Consecutive Time, Another 100bp to 12.75%, Signals More To Come”

Manchester United Debt Soars as Broadcasting Revenue Falls 51 percent

The impact of the coronavirus pandemic on UK Premier League club Manchester United has been severe. $MANU Slipped to a pre-tax loss in quarter ended 31 March. Broadcasting revenue fell by 51.7%. Net debt increased by £127.4m to £429 sending finance costs higher as the football seasons were postponed. Manchester United PLC NYSE: MANU Reported Earnings Before Open Thursday ($0.06) Missed Exp $0.01 EPS and $157.94M Missed $171.27 Million Forecast in Revenue Earnings Manchester United reported earnings for the quarter … Continue reading “Manchester United Debt Soars as Broadcasting Revenue Falls 51 percent”

How The Rusal and Ruble Plunge Fed China’s Xi New Outlook

The Russian Ruble fell around 4% against the USD after the latest sweeping U.S. sanctions from the US. Russia’s largest aluminium producer Rusal plunged into crisis leading to panic selling and contagion spread to other companies and bond and FX markets.