It is difficult to predict exactly what black swan events might occur in the future, as these events are by definition rare and unexpected. Critical thinking around past black swans gives a range of possibilities including, pandemics, cyber-attacks, natural disasters, major technological breakthroughs or disruptors, or a geopolitical event, such as a war or a political crisis. Of course, by their very nature the black swan could be from something totally unthought of. Expect the unexpected as a good way … Continue reading “Potential Future Black Swans in an Uncertain World”
The Difference Between API and EIA Crude Oil Storage Reports
API (American Petroleum Institute) and EIA (Energy Information Administration) are two organizations that publish weekly reports on crude oil storage levels in the United States. The API report is based on data collected from a survey of oil storage facilities and is published on Tuesday afternoons, while the EIA report is based on data from the previous week and is released on Wednesday mornings. The report may be issued on a different date if a holiday falls during the week. … Continue reading “The Difference Between API and EIA Crude Oil Storage Reports”
Trading Natural Gas Futures Seems Very Risky, Why is That?
Natural gas futures prices have been extremely volatile in 2022 since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the stories of heavy losses by traders and speculators begs the question why. There are several reasons why trading natural gas futures can be risky. One reason is that the price of natural gas is highly volatile and can fluctuate significantly in a short period of time. This makes it difficult to accurately predict the future price of natural gas, which can lead … Continue reading “Trading Natural Gas Futures Seems Very Risky, Why is That?”
Santa Clause Stock Market Rally and Window Dressing
Talking heads and brokers love to spout off about the Santa Claus rally at the end of each year. The Santa Claus rally is a term used to describe a phenomenon in which stock prices tend to rise in the last five days of the year, as well as the first two trading days of the new year. It was first defined in ‘The 1972 Stock Trader’s Almanac’ by Yale Hirsch. It is believed that this phenomenon is caused by … Continue reading “Santa Clause Stock Market Rally and Window Dressing”
Fund Manager Misery with Capitulation and Sentiment at Lehman Collapse Levels – BofA Survey
BofA Global Fund Manager Survey revealed the lowest equity allocation since Lehman Bros and the highest cash levels since 2001 as fund managers slashed their exposure to risk assets. These levels have not seen even during the global financial crisis. The markets in response on Tuesday in a sign of full capitulation amid a “dire” economic outlook rallied sharply by early afternoon the Dow at 31765.50 was +691.01 or +2.22%, Nasdaq 11695.85 +335.83 +2.96% and the SP 500 3931.38 +100.46 … Continue reading “Fund Manager Misery with Capitulation and Sentiment at Lehman Collapse Levels – BofA Survey”
Brazil Central Bank Aggressively Raises Rates For Tenth Consecutive Time, Another 100bp to 12.75%, Signals More To Come
Banco Central do Brasil again aggressively hiked its benchmark interest rate by 1.0% to 12.75%. It was the tenth consecutive interest rate hike since 2021 when the bank began its current tightening cycle early last year, the Selic was at a record low 2%. The lending rate is now at its highest level since 2017. The bank’s monetary policy committee (Copom) said it expects to raise the Selic by a smaller magnitude. Inflation is the issue of concern. The institution’s … Continue reading “Brazil Central Bank Aggressively Raises Rates For Tenth Consecutive Time, Another 100bp to 12.75%, Signals More To Come”
F.D.A. Antimicrobial Drugs Panel Endorse Merck’s Covid Pill Molnupiravir For High Risk Adults.
The Food and Drug Administration Antimicrobial Drugs Advisory Committee Meeting voted on Tuesday to recommend authorizing the molnupiravir Covid pill from Merck for high-risk adults. It would be the first in a new class of antiviral drugs that could work against a wide range of variants, including Omicron. Molnupiravir has been shown to modestly reduce the risk of hospitalization and death, predominantly from the Delta, Mu and Gamma variants. The expert panel recommended it for Covid patients who are older … Continue reading “F.D.A. Antimicrobial Drugs Panel Endorse Merck’s Covid Pill Molnupiravir For High Risk Adults.”
Fed Chair Powell says Factors Pushing Inflation Upward Will Linger Into Next Year
Federal Reserve System Chairman Jerome Powel released his prepared testimony ahead of tomorrow’s 10:00 a.m. Senate hearing with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen before Senate Banking on Coronavirus and the CARES Act. Headlines via Reuters Factors pushing inflation upward will linger well into next year Inflation running well above 2% goal, pushed up by pandemic-related supply and demand imbalances Continue to expect inflation will move down significantly over the next year We will use our tools to support economy and strong … Continue reading “Fed Chair Powell says Factors Pushing Inflation Upward Will Linger Into Next Year”
Brazil Central Bank Raise Rates by 150bp to 7.75% To Rein In Inflation
Banco Central do Brasil aggressively hiked its benchmark interest rate by 1.5% to 7.75% (consensus was for a 1% hike to 7.25%) Last meeting the Brazilian Central Bank raised 100bp to 6.25% saying the underlying inflation is above the range compatible with meeting the inflation target.
Brazil Central Bank Raise Rates by 100bp to 6.25% To Rein In Inflation
Banco Central do Brasil hiked its benchmark interest rate by 100bp to 6.25% widening the Brazilian Real spread to the US Dollar. The Brazilian central bank said the underlying inflation is above the range compatible with meeting the inflation target. Earlier in the day the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged.