Asian Development Bank says Upside risks to China’s Growth Outlook Outweigh Downside Risks

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Tuesdays raised its growth forecast for developing Asia. Growth in developing Asia is forecast at 4.8% this year and in 2024, up from 4.2% last year. The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) recovery and healthy domestic demand in India will be the region’s main growth supports this year and next.​ The ADB sees the upside risks to China’s growth outlook outweighing downside risks. ADB forecasts 5% economic growth for China in 2023, up from its previous forecast of +4.3%. ADB forecasts 4.5% GDP growth in 2024.


The bank acknowledged that China’s property sector “remains a point of concern”. That said, they noted that “If life really returns to normal quickly and confidence comes back, growth could even be higher than 5% which would be obviously even better for the region. “


  • Growth in developing Asia is forecast at 4.8% this year and in 2024, up from 4.2% last year
  • Inflation is forecast to moderate this year and next, from 4.4% in 2022 to 4.2% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024, gradually moving closer to pre-pandemic averages​.
  • Headline inflation should decline this year in all subregions except South Asia, where large currency depreciations in Pakistan and Sri Lanka are causing higher import and domestic prices.
  • An array of immediate and emerging challenges could still hold back the region’s recovery. Policy makers should stay vigilant in the post-pandemic environment of higher inflation, interest rates, and debt. Governments must continue supporting multilateralism, and lean against the risks of global fracturing.
  • Developing Asia’s economic prospects are markedly improving on the rapid re-opening in the PRC. Population mobility in the PRC has normalized following the end of the zero-COVID strategy, and activity in services is rebounding the fastest. The reopening of the PRC will boost regional growth through demand for goods and services, as well as supply chain linkages.

About ADB

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. It assists its members and partners by providing loans, technical assistance, grants, and equity investments to promote social and economic development.

Source ADB

From The TradersCommunity News Desk