Around The Barrel – U.S. Oil Demand Running at All-Time High

WTI Oil futures Hitting 5-year highs as the Macro world unravels with Omicron, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and the Middle East. EIA reported US Crude last Week crude grew +515Kbbl (incl -1314kbbl draw at Cushing). Gasoline stocks grew +5873kbbl. Utilization fell 0.30% to 88.0%. Production UNCH 11,700 kbpd. EIA estimate for US oil demand running at all-time high, above the 2019 pre-pandemic seasonal levels

Cushing Storage Tanks
Cushing Storage Tanks

Around The Barrel Contents

Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.

  1. DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
  2. Crude Oil Quick Summary
  3. Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
  4. API Crude Inventories
  5. Cushing Oil Stocks
  6. Crude Imports
  7. Crude Exports
  8. Gasoline
  9. Rig Watch
  10. Crude Oil Production
  11. Weather
  12. WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
  13. DCOT Report
  14. Option Volatility and Gamma
  15. Key EIA and CME Dates

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Report Date 1/14/21
  • Release Time: Thursday, January 20, 2022, at 11:00 A.M. (ET)
January 14, 2022January 20, 2022Thursday11:00 a.m.Martin Luther King Jr.

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

 EIAExpPrior API
Crude+515k-3400k -4553k +1404k
Cushing-1314k-1364k-2468k -1496k
Gasoline+5873k+1803k+7961k+3463k
Distillate-1431k+1968k+2537k -1179k
Weekly US Crude Oil Storage Report
  • Refinery Utilization -.30% to 88.00% Exp -.5%
  • Production  -100 to 11,700 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

US Crude Oil Quick Look

EIA weekly estimate for US oil demand (4-week rolling average) data says demand January-to-date (and December) running at all-time high, above the 2019 pre-pandemic seasonal levels via @JavierBlas Bloomberg

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US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown

Weekly Storage via DOE

with RonH Data ‏@Ronh and The Fundamental Angle ‏@BrynneKKelly

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  Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link

The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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API Crude Oil Inventories

API Crude Inventories

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

API Cushing

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Cushing OK Crude Oil Storage Stocks

Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada +216 to 3556
  • Mexico +318 to 902
  • Saudi Arabia +87 to 381
  • Colombia -48 to 193 Iraq +117 to 434
  • Ecuador -58 to 0 Brazil -138 to 57
  • Russia and Nigeria both unchanged at 0
  • Trinidad and Tobago -124 to 0

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought +345.4 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +29.1 mil YoY.

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US consumers spent $1,141.9 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is $+408.9 mil YoY

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.306 last week. That is +0.989 YoY.

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Rig Watch

Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report

  • US Baker Hughes Rig Count 14-Jan: 601 (est 594; prev 588)
  • Rotary Gas Rigs: 109 (est 107; prev 107)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs: 492 (est 485; prev 481)

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +1 to 293
  • Eagle Ford +5 to 43
  • Williston unchanged at 27
  • Cana Woodford unchanged at 26
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 27

Canada Rigs

  • Canadian up by 6 this week as post-Christmas break recovery continues.
  • 212 on the week ending this day for 2022 vs. 167 in 2021.

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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Permian Basin Rigs
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via https://twitter.com/garquake

International oil rigs ex North America

+12 m/m to 599 in September

  • Saudi Arabia +4
  • Turkey, Brazil +3
  • Iraq, Algeria +2
  • Kuwait, Indonesia -2
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US Oil Production

US Oil Field Production unch 11.700 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd

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Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis

via KnovaWave @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.

Daily: On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. The completion in 5 waves saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or a? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above at +2/8, above would be a break of a quadruple top with gid above.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures corrected the sell off and some after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Weekly Tenkan & Kijun closed touching the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Above is weekly +2/8

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, Tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs


Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 43,019 contracts to 249,927 in the week ending January 11 Long-only positions rose by 38,596 Short-only positions fell by 4,423 other reportables net-length rose by 1,332 – ICE

Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 21,449 contracts to 287,826 in the week ending January 11 Long-only positions fell by 9,013 Short-only positions fell by 12,436 other reportables net-length fell by 2,117 – CFTC

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Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is January 11

COT on energy saw selling of #WTI and #Brent extend to to a 4th week. The comb length dropped by 27k lots to 573k, a two month low. With length in all fuel products also reduced, the total 50k lots reduction 819k was the biggest to hit the sector since August.

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:

1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables


Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch

via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk