The oil price continues to flirt between a recovering economy and global conflict. Iran’s civil nuclear program and the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran is the news bite of the week. EIA reported US Crude last Week crude drew -4756Kbbl (incl -1173kbbl draw at Cushing). Gasoline stocks drew -1644kbbl. Utilization rose 1.50% to 88.2%. Production rose 100 to 11,600 kbpd. EIA estimate for US oil demand running at all-time high, above the 2019 pre-pandemic seasonal levels
Around The Barrel Contents
Click on the links below to navigate to the relevant section.
- DOE & API Petroleum Storage Forecast Matrix
- Crude Oil Quick Summary
- Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
- API Crude Inventories
- Cushing Oil Stocks
- Crude Imports
- Crude Exports
- Gasoline
- Rig Watch
- Crude Oil Production
- Weather
- WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
- DCOT Report
- Option Volatility and Gamma
- Key EIA and CME Dates
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report Forecast
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Report Date 2/2/21
- Release Time: Wednesday, February 9, 2022, at 9:30 A.M. (ET) (Groundhog Day)
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
| EIA | Exp | Prior | API | |
| Crude | -4756k | -3400k | -1047k | -2025k |
| Cushing | -2801k | -2664k | -1173k | -2503k |
| Gasoline | -1644k | -1803k | +2119k | -1138k |
| Distillate | -929k | +1968k | -2410k | -2203k |
- Refinery Utilization +1.50% to 88.20% Exp -.5%
- Production +100 to 11,600 kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)
Iran Nuclear Talks Update
The United States on Friday said they are waiving sanctions on Iran’s civil nuclear program in a desperate attempt for the Biden administration to secure a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. The State Department notified Congress of the waiver Friday. The change in policy would allow other countries to cooperate on certain nonproliferation activities necessary to return to the international nuclear agreement.
“This is not a signal that we are about to reach an understanding on a mutual return to full implementation” of the JCPOA, the Obama-era Iran nuclear agreement, a State Department official told NBC News.
Nuclear talks between world powers are entering their final stretch, with negotiators in Vienna hoping to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Iran is said to be just weeks away from being able to produce enough weapons grade material for a nuclear bomb.
Iran’s foreign minister quickly rebuked the move. “The lifting of some sanctions can in itself translate into good faith,” Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said, according to Iranian state media. “But it’s not enough.”
“Iran’s legal right to continue research and development and maintain its peaceful nuclear capabilities and achievements, side by side with its security … cannot be curbed by any agreement,” Ali Shamkhani, Iran’s top security official, tweeted.
US Crude Oil Quick Look
On a 4-week avg basis, @EIAgov continues to peg US oil demand at a record high for this time of the year. The latest data puts demand at 21.64m b/d, highest ever for late January, and the highest in absolute terms since Aug 2019 (Chart is 20 years of seasonal data) via @JavierBlas Bloomberg
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weekly DoE US Petroleum Storage Report Breakdown
Weekly Storage via DOE
with RonH Data @Ronh and The Fundamental Angle @BrynneKKelly
Via RonH at Ron H Public Tableau Link
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
API Crude Oil Inventories
US petroleum (Crude, SPR, oil products) inventories in million barrels (EIA)
Cushing Oil Stocks
Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contract – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.
API Cushing Stocks
Weekly Update via RonH Data @Ronh999
Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic
US Oil Import Export
Imports
US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)
- Canada -322 to 3631
- Mexico +575 to 958
- Saudi Arabia -230 to 383
- Colombia -28 to 258
- Iraq -186 to 226
- Ecuador -135 to 101
- Brazil +71 to 71
- Russia +118 to 138
- Nigeria +135 to 144
- Trinidad and Tobago -75 to 0
Exports
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought +383.3 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +53.3 mil YoY.
US consumers spent $1,320.10 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$507.9 mil YoY
US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.444 last week. That is +0.983 YoY.
Rig Watch
Baker Hughes Weekly North American Rigs Report
- US Baker Hughes Rig Count 11-Feb: 635 (est 617; prev 613)
- Rotary Gas Rigs: 118 (est 116; prev 116)
- Rotary Oil Rigs: 516 (est 501; prev 497)
US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins
- Permian +7 to 301
- Eagle Ford +5 to 47
- Williston +2 to 33
- Cana Woodford unchanged at 25
- DJ Niobrara unchanged at 12
Canada Rigs
- Canadian up by 6 this week as post-Christmas break recovery continues.
- 212 on the week ending this day for 2022 vs. 167 in 2021.
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
International oil rigs ex North America
International oil rigs ex North America remained unchanged at 642 in January
- Colombia +4
- Qatar +3
- Iraq, Brazil, Indonesia +2
- Turkey, Mexico-2
- Oman, Argentina -3 Abu Dhabi -4
US Oil Production
US Oil Field Production +100kbpd to 11.600mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
WTI Crude Oil Futures Technical Analysis
via KnovaWave @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.
Daily:
Another big week for oil, after hitting our initial 8/8 target completing either a iii of (5) or (v) of 5 as marked. From there we saw a sharp ABC higher and MM recalculation higher. We are in a completive mode with this impulse, it’s a question of degree on the topside, use the Murrey math 240/60 grid. On the way up potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Recall prior to this move the completion in 5 waves (iii or i) saw heavy selling with eventual confluence kiss of death with 50dma at the top of the cloud. From there down in 3 waves, completing a C or IV? Support wasn’t found until 0-8. From there we have accelerated higher through the cloud twist. Support Kijun and Tenkan. Closed above 50dma with grid above
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.
Weekly: WTI crude Oil futures continued higher after corrected the sell off after it’s measured move reversed from 7-year highs and regained them right to the top of the weekly channel with the downside open. Support is the median and Tenkan/Kijun. Long term 61.8% target fueled the spit of a spit by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou sated the 5 waves. Support previous high and Weekly Tenkan & Kijun which closed turning up under the 61.8% to give next impulse clue after holding above 50wma after regaining energy above Tenkan and Kijun. Resistance the Murrey Math levels and previous breaks (off monthly)
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all-time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Above we have Murrey Math time and price
What we broke…….
Crude Oil Futures Commitment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 12,926 contracts to 229,591 in the week ending February 1 Long-only positions fell by 10,685 Short-only positions rose by 2,241 other reportables net-length rose by 3,354- ICE
Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 6,430 contracts to 303,872 in the week ending February 1 Long-only positions rose by 2,895 Short-only positions fell by 3,535 other reportables net-length fell by 2,097- CFTC
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is February 1
COT on energy in wk to Jan 25: Specs cut length in the WTI and Brent crudeoil contracts for the first time in six weeks ahead of $90/b Brent resistance and the FOMC meeting. Overall, the combined net long was cut by 19.5k lots to 540k lots
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications:
1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatility Watch
via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
Key EIA and CME Dates for WTI Crude Oil
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From The TradersCommunity US Research Desk