EIA reported a draw in crude and gasoline as we head into year end. Crude oil drew -6065kbbl with a small build of +27kbbl at Cushing. Products showed a draw with gasoline -1192kbbl and a build with distillate +3095kbbl. US production unchanged at 11000 kbpd, still off record high of 13.10 mbpd. Oil Futures reached the highest prices since March 2020.
Last week EIA reported a draw in crude and products as we head into year end. Crude oil drew 562kbbl with draws of 26kbbl at Cushing. Products had draws with gasoline -1125kbbl and distillate -2325kbbl. US production unchanged at 11000 kbpd, still off record high of 13.10 mbpd. Oil Futures reached the highest prices since March 2020.
Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Wednesday Dec 30 2020 10:30 ET
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing
- Refinery Utilization +1.4% to 79.4% Exp +0.4%
- Production UNCH at 11.000 mbpd (13.10 ATH)
US Crude Oil Quick Look
Gulf of Mexico
API Crude Inventories
WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
WTI continued higher after broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September, In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story. We watch ABC corrections and from here we got the energy from the break. Support is the Tenkan, old channel & prev high confluence. Watch Kijun & 50 dma.. Resistance MM and previous lows.
WTI has continued higher after it rebalanced chikou indicative of extreme crowd behavior in a series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Price popped after the spit of the 50wma (green) which is now key for support as Tenkan touched Kijun in a kiss of life.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
COT on commodities in wk to Oct 13 saw funds lift bullish bets to a 30-mth high at 2.1m lots. Top five buys were #Brent #natgas #copper #corn & #sugar while #WTI #gold #soybeans and #cocoa were sold. The ag sector has gone from net short to 50% of total long since mid-July #OOTT
COT on #oil and #natgas in wk to Oct 13 saw mixed reaction to #HurricaneDelta . Long liquidation in #WTI (-9k) being more than offset by a 37.5k lots jump in the #Brent long on short covering. A 13% rally in gas lifted the long to 342k lots, highest since May 2017
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com
Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.
RonH Data @Ronh999
Cushing Oil Stocks
NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link
US Oil Import Export
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought 336.90 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -53.80 mil YoY
US consumers spent $749.30 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$240.00 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.224 last week. That is -30.80 cents YoY
US Crude Oil Production
US Oil Field Production UNCH kbpd at 11.00 mbpd 0ff ATH 13.10mpd
Forecast Oil Production Matrix – HFI Research
Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research
** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.
US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions
Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From TradersCommunity Research