Crude oil futures continue to collapse in the face of the oil price war and Coronavirus fears crushing demand.. EIA reported a build in crude storage and smaller draws in gasoline and distillate. US production came slightky off the record high of 13.10 mbpd.
Crude oil futures continue to collapse in the face of the oil price war and Coronavirus fears crushing demand.. EIA reported a build in crude storage and large draws in gasoline and distillate. US production came slightly off the record high of 13.10 mbpd.
>Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Wednessday March 25 2020 – 9;30 ET
|EIA||Expected||Prior EIA||Prior API|
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est except Cushing
- Refinery Utilization +.9% 87.30% Exp -0.1%
- Production -100bpd to 13.00 mbpd (13.10 ATH)
WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
WTI got the panic babounced off the outside trend line undr $20 (April) Friday in 5 waves from the recent highs to -4/8, we got impulse from here, question is was that completing a C or 3 of something larger. Math and crowd behavior tell the story right to the +2/8 and collapsed back to the break up and now through the channel, accelrating when Tenkan and 50 dma crossed. Note 1.618 extension of previous emotive wave.
WTI accelerated lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to 16yr lows from here we see traction to work out from 3 waves Key resistance is Kijun and 50wma confluence (green) which all failed after the violent spike up. Support channel and fib conflageration with MM 0 -8 and -1-8
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest: via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Brent crudeoil longs were left exposed once it broke key support on Wednesday. Two weeks of selling had failed to trigger a reduction in the net-long. In wk to Jan 21 it even rose by 2.8k lots to reach a 15-mth high at 429k lots. The WTI long rose by 6.4k lots to 232k
COT on commodities to Jan 21 shows the changes made by funds just before the coronavirus outbreak became the main market driver. The worrying news from China raised concerns about its potential impact on demand for key commodities from crudeoil to copper and soybeans
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com
Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.
RonH Data @Ronh999
Cushing Oil Stocks
NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link
US Oil Import Export
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought 371.15 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is -12.06 mil YoY
US consumers spent $786.8 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is -$218.40 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $2.120 last week. That is -50.3 cents YoY
US Crude Oil Production
US Oil Field Production Back -100kpd 0ff ATH 13.10mpd
September Field Oil Production Hits a New High 12.463 mpd
** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.
Crude: Crude build of +1.95MMBLs but a huge product draw of -9.6MM. Crude production back at 13.1MMBD while exports hit the 2nd highest level at 4.378MMBD. Small increase in Cushing stocks but we should see it reach capacity level soon with these contango levels.
EIA Products: A large product draw of -9.6MM, with gasoline leading at -6.18MM and disty at -2.9MM. Gasoline stocks are now lower y-o-y while disty near 5 yr lows. Falling demand in the coming weeks will lead to stockbuilds however
US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions
Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
From TradersCommunity Research