Around The Barrel – Crude Oil Storage Grew 1002k bbl and Gasoline Drew -1555kbbl

WTI Oil futures fell after  EIA reported crude build +1002Kbbl (incl -34kbbl draw at Cushing)  Crude storage near lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks drew -1555kbbl,  Utilization rose +.4% to 86.5%. Production unchanged 11,500 kbpd.

WTI Oil futures fell after  EIA reported crude build +1002Kbbl (incl -34kbbl draw at Cushing)  Crude storage near lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks drew -1555kbbl,  Utilization rose +.4% to 86.5%. Production unchanged 11,500 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 11/3/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
EIAExpectedPrior EIAAPI
Crude+1001k+2650k+3290k-2485k
Cushing-34k-86k-9169k+234k
Gasoline-1555k-1790k-1488k-4500k
Distillate-2613k

+2500k

+2160k-3300k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +0.4% to 86.5% Exp +.5%
  • Production  UNCH 11,500 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

The recovery in US GoM oil output is painfully slow. As today, ~1.39m b/d remains off-line (only 7,321 b/d improvement from Wednesday). The cumulative output loss since Aug 27 stands at 22 million barrels. Shell has declared force majeure on “numerous” contracts

Rig Watch:

  • Total 556 (est 556; prev 550)
  • Rotary Oil Rigs: +4 to 454 (est 455; prev 450)
  • Rotary Gas Rigs: +2 to 102 (est 100; prev 100)

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian unchanged at 271
  • Eagle Ford +1 to 38
  • Williston unchanged at 24
  • Cana Woodford +2 to 24
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 12

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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International oil rigs ex North America

+12 m/m to 599 in September

  • Saudi Arabia +4
  • Turkey, Brazil +3
  • Iraq, Algeria +2
  • Kuwait, Indonesia -2

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Baker Hughes

Drilling Ramps Up in Oil Patch With Natural Gas Rig Count Unchanged

US Crude Oil Quick Look

 

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

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API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

API Cushing Stocks

United States API Cushing Number

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

The backwardation structure of all crude prices steepened in October and the calendar spread between the nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. This reflected the market perception of stronger market fundamentals in the near-term and lower global crude oil inventory levels. The prospect of higher oil demand during the winter season due to gas to oil switching, amid soaring gas prices in the main trading hubs, and the forecast of slower non-OPEC oil supply growth, have pushed the near-month contract spreads higher compared to later month contracts.

4 Hour:: WTI oil stayed above the 240 cloud after testing the old channel break to new highs. This is a market that is reflective of fear and greed, note the reaction when Kijun and Tenkan cross or touch and support of the 50ma around Murrey Math confluence.

WTI 240 11 5 2021

Daily: Potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Continued from daily cloud twist retest to close back at Chikou & ATH. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with #oil Important to grasp the move continued from last week’s WTI completing its correction of the May breakup in 3 waves (or X) Rebounded from daily cloud twist to close back at Chikou. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with oil.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence. ;

WTI D 11 5 2021

Weekly:WTI crude #Oil futures continued with it’s measured move & settled at fresh 7-year high. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou. Weekly Tenkan Kijun gave support & power to take out new high It must retain this energy to take out new high

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price

WTI W 11 5 2021

WTI D 11 5 2021 Perspective

WTI W 11 5 2021 Fibs

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 9,690 contracts to 249,836 in the week ending November 2 Long-only positions fell by 10,908 Short-only positions fell by 1,218 other reportables net-length rose by 4,708 – ICE

Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 17,141 contracts to 323,703 in the week ending November 2 Long-only positions fell by 14,678 Short-only positions rose by 2,463 other reportables net-length rose by 9,998- CFTC

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Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined)latest value is November 2

COT on energy saw selling of #WTI and #Brent extend to to a 4th week. The comb length dropped by 27k lots to 573k, a two month low. With length in all fuel products also reduced, the total 50k lots reduction 819k was the biggest to hit the sector since August.

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

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At this rate of decline #Cushing could hit its operational floor within a few weeks. A stunning reversal from last year when the pandemic prompted a glut of #crudeoil so big that exhausted storage capacity briefly forced WTI below zero. Watch those #WTI front end spreads

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contrect – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

From Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.

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Where we are historically via HFI Research @HFI_Research

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

“At this rate of decline Cushing could hit its operational floor within a few weeks. A stunning reversal from last year when the pandemic prompted a glut of #crudeoil so big that exhausted storage capacity briefly forced WTI below zero. Watch those WTI front end spreads”

Weekly Storage via DOE with RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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 NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada +213 to 3685
  • Mexico -192 to 439
  • Saudi Arabia +61 to 397
  • Colombia -70 to 71
  • Iraq +32 to 187
  • Ecuador -130 to 92
  • Brazil -108 to 178
  • Russia +1 to 206
  • Nigeria +64 to 64

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 388.9 million gallons of #gasoline per day last week. That is +38.8 mil YoY.

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US consumers spent $1,326.1 million dollars per day for #gasoline last week. That is +$586.7 mil YoY.

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 US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.410 last week. That is +$1.298 YoY

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production  Rose UNH 11.500 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd

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US crude production was at 11.141mbpd in August down from 11.326mbpd in July (revised up from 11.307mbpd) – EIA

US crude production m/m changes in kbpd (August vs. July) US -185

  • Gulf of Mexico-312
  • Louisiana-11
  • Texas+18
  • Alaska+29
  • North Dakota +29
  • New Mexico +50

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix

 

   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research