Around The Barrel – Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Fall To Lowest Since October 2018.

WTI Oil futures new 7 Year highs over $84 as geopolitics and energy shortage impacts. EIA reported crude build +4286Kbbl (incl -3899Kkbbl draw at Cushing)  Crude storage near lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks drew -1993kbbl,  Utilization fell +0.4% to 85.0%. Production Unchanged 11,300 kbpd.

WTI Oil futures new 7 Year highs over $84 as geopolitics and energy shortage impacts. EIA reported crude build +4286Kbbl (incl -3899Kkbbl draw at Cushing)  Crude storage near lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks drew -1993kbbl,  Utilization fell +0.4% to 85.0%. Production Unchanged 11,300 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 10/20/21

  • via TradersCommunity.com
  • Release Time: Wednesday, October 27, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
EIAExpectedPrior EIAAPI
Crude

+4286k

+1650k-431k+2318k
Cushing-3899k-2886k-2320k-3734
Gasoline

-1993k

+1790k-5386k+530k
Distillate-432k

+2500k

-3913k+986k

Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +0.4% to 84.9% Exp -1.5%
  • Production  UNCH to 11,300 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

The recovery in US GoM oil output is painfully slow. As today, ~1.39m b/d remains off-line (only 7,321 b/d improvement from Wednesday). The cumulative output loss since Aug 27 stands at 22 million barrels. Shell has declared force majeure on “numerous” contracts

Rig Watch:

  • Oil down 2 to 443 vs 211 a year ago
  • Natural gas up 1 to 99 vs 73

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +1 to 267
  • Eagle Ford unchanged at 38
  • Williston unchanged at 23
  • Cana Woodford unchanged at 22
  • DJ Niobrara -1 to 11

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)

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International oil rigs ex North America

+12 m/m to 599 in September

  • Saudi Arabia +4
  • Turkey, Brazil +3
  • Iraq, Algeria +2
  • Kuwait, Indonesia -2

 

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Baker Hughes

Drilling Ramps Up in Oil Patch With Natural Gas Rig Count Unchanged

US Crude Oil Quick Look

 

via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico

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API Crude Inventories

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API Cushing Stocks

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WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: WTI oil stayed above the 240 cloud after testing the old channel break to new highs. This is a market that is reflective of fear and greed, note the reaction when Kijun and Tenkan cross or touch and support of the 50ma around Murrey Math confluence.

WTI 240 10 22 2021
 

Daily: Potent WTI price action indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by spits of the Tenkan to new highs. Continued from daily cloud twist retest to close back at Chikou & ATH. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with #oil Important to grasp the move continued from last week’s WTI completing its correction of the May breakup in 3 waves (or X) Rebounded from daily cloud twist to close back at Chikou. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with oil.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence. ;

WTI D 10 22 2021
 

Weekly:WTI crude #Oil futures continued with it’s measured move & settled at fresh 7-year high. Long term 61.8% target fueled by ABC bull flag after rebalanced Chikou. Weekly Tenkan Kijun gave support & power to take out new high It must retain this energy to take out new high

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 10 22 2021
 

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 3,723 contracts to 332,677 in the week ending October 5 Long-only positions rose by 3,964 Short-only positions rose by 241 other reportables net-length rose by 11,444 – ICE

Money managers raised their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 18,115 contracts to 316,157 in the week ending October 5 Long-only positions rose by 9,099 Short-only positions fell by 9,016 other reportables net-length rose by 11,125- CFTC

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Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) #OOTT latest value is September 28

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

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Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com

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NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)

 

NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)

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The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly

 

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At this rate of decline #Cushing could hit its operational floor within a few weeks. A stunning reversal from last year when the pandemic prompted a glut of #crudeoil so big that exhausted storage capacity briefly forced WTI below zero. Watch those #WTI front end spreads

Cushing Oil Stocks

Cushing, OK is the hub for the most heavily traded US oil Futures contrect – West Intermediate Crude – WTI so for that reason we pay special attention to the storage there.

Weekly Update via RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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Closer Look at Cushing with DigStic Data @DigStic

From Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.

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Where we are historically via HFI Research @HFI_Research

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via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

“At this rate of decline Cushing could hit its operational floor within a few weeks. A stunning reversal from last year when the pandemic prompted a glut of #crudeoil so big that exhausted storage capacity briefly forced WTI below zero. Watch those WTI front end spreads”

 

Weekly Storage via DOE with RonH Data ‏@Ronh999

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 NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export

Imports

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US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada -598 to 3441 Mexico -336 to 316 Saudi Arabia -318 to 304 Colombia +382 to 382 Iraq +157 to 188 Ecuador +149 to 208 Brazil -371 to 0 Russia +246 to 354 Nigeria +78 to 211 Trinidad and Tobago +81 to 81

Exports

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US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries

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US consumers bought 391.6 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +43.5 mil YoY

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US consumers spent $1,324.7 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +$576.2 mil YoY

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US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.383 last week. That is +$1.240 YoY.

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US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production  Unchanged 11.30 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd 

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Forecast Oil Production Matrix

 

   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions

 

Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar

REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE

From TradersCommunity Research

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