Around The Barrel – Crude Oil and Gasoline Outlook

WTI Oil futures topped $80 for the first time since 2014 as Europe influence impacts. EIA reported crude build +2346kbbl (incl +1548kbbl build at Cushing)  Crude storage near lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks grew +3256kbbl,  Utilization rose  1.5% to 89.6%. Production +200k to 11,300 kbpd.

WTI Oil futures topped $80 for the first time since 2014 as Europe influence impacts. EIA reported crude build +2346kbbl (incl +1548kbbl build at Cushing)  Crude storage near lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks grew +3256kbbl,  Utilization rose  1.5% to 89.6%. Production +200k to 11,300 kbpd.

Cushing Storage Tanks

Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.

DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 10/69/21

  • via
  • Release Time: Thursday, October 6, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
EIAExpectedPrior EIAPrior API







Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est  adjusted for API shift, except Cushing

  • Refinery Utilization +1.5% to 89.6% Exp +0.5%
  • Production  +200k to 11,300 kbpd (13.10 ATH)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)

The recovery in US GoM oil output is painfully slow. As today, ~1.39m b/d remains off-line (only 7,321 b/d improvement from Wednesday). The cumulative output loss since Aug 27 stands at 22 million barrels. Shell has declared force majeure on “numerous” contracts

Rig Watch:

  • Oil up 5 to 433 vs 193 year ago
  • Natural gas UNCH 99 vs 73 (stalled mid summer +1 Marcellus -1 Utica

US Oil Rigs  w/w changes by key shale basins

  • Permian +3 to 265
  • Eagle Ford +1 to 36
  • Williston unchanged at 23
  • Cana Woodford unchanged at 20
  • DJ Niobrara unchanged at 12

US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)


International oil rigs ex North America

+12 m/m to 599 in September

  • Saudi Arabia +4
  • Turkey, Brazil +3
  • Iraq, Algeria +2
  • Kuwait, Indonesia -2



Baker Hughes

Drilling Ramps Up in Oil Patch With Natural Gas Rig Count Unchanged

US Crude Oil Quick Look


via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo


via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen

Weather Watch

Gulf of Mexico


API Crude Inventories

United States API Crude Oil Stock Change

API Cushing Stocks

United States API Cushing Number

WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave

US Crude Oil (WTI)

4 Hour:: WTI stayed above the cloud and after testing the old channel break soared to new highs. This is a market that is reflective of fear and greed, note the reaction when Kijun and Tenkan cross or touch and the rebalance of the Chikou to close the week. Continue to watch Kijun reactions and Murrey Math confluence.

WTI 240 10 8 2021

Daily: WTI Price action is potent, indicative of 3rd wave energy highlighted by the violent spit of the tenkan to new highs. Important to grasp that continued from completing its correction of the May breakup in 3 waves (or X) Rebounded from daily cloud twist to close back at Chikou. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with oil.

The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence.

WTI D 10 8 2021

Weekly:  Oil did a measured move to our long term 61.8% target fueled by that ABC bull flag after the rebalanced Chikou indicative of crowd behavior and 50% fib failure at 70.29 over 7/8. The weekly Tenkan gives us a clearer view of the rally off the clear ABC off 50wma and the acceleration and recapture of Tenkan and Kijun. We watched 3 and 5 waves develop. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma. It must retain this energy to take out new high

These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price 

 WTI W 10 8 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Oil 2014 2021

Oil 2020 2021

Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders

Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:

CTFC and ICE open interest:

Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 3,723 contracts to 332,677 in the week ending October 5 Long-only positions rose by 3,964 Short-only positions rose by 241 other reportables net-length rose by 11,444 – ICE

Money managers raised their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 18,115 contracts to 316,157 in the week ending October 5 Long-only positions rose by 9,099 Short-only positions fell by 9,016 other reportables net-length rose by 11,125- CFTC


Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) #OOTT latest value is September 28

via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen





Understanding DCOT Reports

Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT  to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables 

Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via


NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)


NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)




NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)


The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly ‏@BrynneKKelly




DigStic Data @DigStic

Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.



RonH Data ‏@Ronh999



Cushing Oil Stocks



 NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link

US Oil Import Export



US crude imports by origin in kbpd (incl w/w change)

  • Canada +1005 to 4039
  • Mexico -112 to 652
  • Saudi Arabia +61 to 622
  • Colombia -255 to 0
  • Iraq +31 to 31
  • Ecuador -176 to 59
  • Brazil +160 to 271
  • Russia -157 to 108
  • Nigeria +69 to 133 EIA



US Gasoline Consumers

Input to Refineries


US consumers bought 395.50 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +37.70 mil YoY


US consumers spent $1,263.00 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +486.00 mil YoY.


US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.1905 last week. That is +1.018 cents YoY



US Crude Oil Production

 US Oil Field Production  +200k to 11.40 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd 



Forecast Oil Production Matrix


   ** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.

US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions


Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy 

Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil

CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar

CME Crude Oil Options Calendar


From TradersCommunity Research

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