WTI Oil futures volatility continued as storm and energy influence effects linger and EIA reported crude build +4578kbbl (incl +131kbbl build at Cushing) Crude storage near lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks grew +193kbbl, Utilization rose 0.6% to 88.1%. Production +500k to 11,100 kbpd.
WTI Oil futures volatility continued as storm influence effects linger and EIA reported crude drew -3481kbbl (incl -1476kbbl draw at Cushing) Crude storage at lows seen in 2018). Gasoline stocks grew +3474kbbl, Utilization rose 5.4% to 87.6%. Production +500k to 10,600 kbpd.
Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 9/29/21
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Thursday, October 1, 2021 at 10:30 A.M. (ET)
| EIA | Expected | Prior EIA | Prior API | |
| Crude | +k | +2100k | +4758k | +4127k |
| Cushing | +k | +186k | +131k | +359 |
| Gasoline | +k | +1790k | +193k | +3555k |
| Distillate | +k | +2500k | +385k | +2483k |
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
- Refinery Utilization +0.6% to 88.1% Exp +2.5%
- Production +500k to 11,100 kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week (Live Link)
The recovery in US GoM oil output is painfully slow. As today, ~1.39m b/d remains off-line (only 7,321 b/d improvement from Wednesday). The cumulative output loss since Aug 27 stands at 22 million barrels. Shell has declared force majeure on “numerous” contracts
Rig Watch:
- US oil rigs +7 to 428
US Oil Rigs w/w changes by key shale basins
- Permian +3 to 262
- Eagle Ford unchanged at 35
- Williston unchanged at 23
- Cana Woodford unchanged at 20
- DJ Niobrara unchanged at 12
US oil rigs and frac spread (Baker Hughes/Primary Vision)
International oil rigs ex North America
+12 m/m to 599 in September
- Saudi Arabia +4
- Turkey, Brazil +3
- Iraq, Algeria +2
- Kuwait, Indonesia -2
Baker Hughes
Drilling Ramps Up in Oil Patch With Natural Gas Rig Count Unchanged
US Crude Oil Quick Look
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
API Crude Inventories
API Cushing Stocks
WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
4 Hour:: WTI stayed above the cloud and in the channel all week in a continuation pattern since regaining the 240 cloud to rebalance the Chikou to close the week. Continue to watch Kijun reactions and Murrey Math confluence.
Daily: WTI Price action continued from last week’s WTI completing its correction of the May breakup in 3 waves (or X) Rebounded from daily cloud twist to close back at Chikou. Support Tenkan, 50dma and Kijun, fractals continue with oil.
The key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. A great example of why we watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit – hence the fractal energies reverberations. Support is previous lows, Murrey Math levels and Fib cluster. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan and prev high confluence. ;
Weekly: They key for #oil was the rebalanced Chikou indicative of crowd behavior and 50% fib failure at 70.29 over 7/8. The weekly Tenkan gives us a clearer view of the rally off the clear ABC off 50wma and the acceleration and recapture of Tenkan and Kijun. We watched 3 and 5 waves develop. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma. It must retain this energy to take out new high
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 9,303 contracts to 328,954 in the week ending September 28 Long-only positions rose by 19,458 Short-only positions rose by 10,155 other reportables net-length fell by 3,723 – ICE
Money managers raised their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 12,079 contracts to 298,042 in the week ending September 28 Long-only positions rose by 12,580 Short-only positions rose by 501 other reportables net-length rose by 11,176 – CFTC
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) #OOTT latest value is September 28
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
DigStic Data @DigStic
Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.
RonH Data @Ronh999
Cushing Oil Stocks
NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link
US Oil Import Export
Imports
Exports
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought 394.80 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +37.20 mil YoY
US consumers spent $1,253.40 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +478.10 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.175 last week. That is +1.007 cents YoY
US Crude Oil Production
US Oil Field Production +500k to 11.10 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd
Forecast Oil Production Matrix
** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.
US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions
Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar
CME Crude Oil Options Calendar
REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE
From TradersCommunity Research