WTI Oil futures had a violent trading week ahead of EIA reporting a build in crude of 2107kbbl (including a -1347kbbl draw at Cushing to lowest since Jan 2020) Gasoline stocks fell 121kbbl and Utilization fell 0.4% to 91.4%. Production unchanged at 11,400 kbpd.
WTI Oil futures had a violent trading week ahead of EIA reporting a build in crude of 2107kbbl (including a -1347kbbl draw at Cushing to lowest since Jan 2020) Gasoline stocks fell 121kbbl and Utilization fell 0.4% to 91.4%. Production unchanged at 11,400 kbpd.
Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 7/14/21
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Wednesday, July 21, 2021 at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
| EIA | Expected | Prior EIA | API | |
| Crude | +2107k | -4500k | –7896k | +806k |
| Cushing | -1347k | -1552k | -1589k | -3567k |
| Gasoline | -121k | -1050k | +1038k | +3307k |
| Distillate | -1349k | +650k | +3657k | -1225k |
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
- Refinery Utilization -0.4% to 91.4% Exp -0.5%
- Production UNCH 11,400 kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Summary of Weekly Petkoleum Data for the Week (Live Link)
Rig Watch:
Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. oil drilling rigs in the week ended July 2 was 372 (est 377; prev 372), well above the record low posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
US Crude Oil Quick Look
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
API Crude Inventories
API Cushing Stocks
WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
4 Hour:: Since bottoming at -1/8 240 and breaking the tenkan and then confirming the next wave up over the Kijun and 50ma WTI has extended off each tenkan spit as marked. Targets remain +2/8 and above MM. Support is the kijun and 50ma
Daily: WTI retested and broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance. We have rallied since we tested and spat the daily kijun, 50 dma and tenkan as the market rebalanced at the mid point of the month’s range. We had been effectively consolidating since we broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September. In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. Resistance is Murrey Math levels and Fib clusters.
Weekly: WTI rebounded after corrected off previous highs in clinical ABC and rebalanced chikou indicative of crowd behavior ahead of $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil tested and held support at Tenkan. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs last seen 2019.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Money managers reduced their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 64,702 contracts to 316,789 in the week ending July 20 Long-only positions fell by 56,793 Short-only positions rose by 7,909
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) #OOTT latest value is July 20 other reportables net-length rose by 8,782
Money managers reduced their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 50,786 contracts to 261,841 in the week ending July 20 Long-only positions fell by 58,374 Short-only positions fell by 7,588 other reportables net-length rose by 29,848 ICE
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
DigStic Data @DigStic
Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.
RonH Data @Ronh999
Cushing Oil Stocks
NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link
US Oil Import Export
Imports
Exports
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought 390.40 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +27.2 mil YoY
US consumers spent $1,230.9 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +433.6 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.153 last week. That is +0.967 cents YoY
US Crude Oil Production
US Oil Field Production UNCH kbpd at 11.40 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd
Forecast Oil Production Matrix
** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.
US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions
Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar
CME Crude Oil Options Calendar
REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE
From TradersCommunity Research