WTI Oil traded to 3 year highs over $74.20 into EIA reporting a draw in crude of -7614kbbl (including a -1833kbbl draw at Cushing) Gasoline stocks drew -2930kbbl and Utilization fell 0.4% to 92.2% just off the highest since the Pandemic began. Production fell 100kbbl to 11,100 kbpd.
WTI Oil traded to 3 year highs over $74.20 into EIA reporting a draw in crude of -7614kbbl (including a -1833kbbl draw at Cushing) Gasoline stocks drew -2930kbbl and Utilization fell 0.4% to 92.2% just off the highest since the Pandemic began. Production fell 100kbbl to 11,100 kbpd.
Crude Oil Tanks at Cushing OK, Basis For the WTI Futures Contract.
DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report: 6/16/21
- via TradersCommunity.com
- Release Time: Wednesday, June 23, 2021 at 9:30 A.M. (ET)
| EIA | Expected | Prior EIA | API | |
| Crude | -7614k | -3600k | –7355k | -7199k |
| Cushing | -1833k | -1752k | -2150k | -2550k |
| Gasoline | -2930k | +800k | +1954k | +959k |
| Distillate | +1754k | +1000k | -1023k | +992k |
Note in bbls *exp = Reuters poll est adjusted for API shift, except Cushing
- Refinery Utilization -0.4% to 92.2% Exp +.7%
- Production -100 kbpd to 11,100 kbpd (13.10 ATH)
Summary of Weekly Petkoleum Data for the Week (Live Link)
US Crude Oil Quick Look
via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Weather Watch
Gulf of Mexico
API Crude Inventories
API Cushing Stocks
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WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart Outlook via @KnovaWave
US Crude Oil (WTI)
4 Hour:: Since bottoming at -1/8 240 and breaking the tenkan and then confirming the next wave up over the Kijun and 50ma WTI has extended off each tenkan spit as marked. Targets remain +2/8 and above MM. Support is the kijun and 50ma
Daily: WTI retested and broke the double top successfully to close above +2/8 multiple resistance. We have rallied since we tested and spat the daily kijun, 50 dma and tenkan as the market rebalanced at the mid point of the month’s range. We had been effectively consolidating since we broke the topside of the channel it had been in since September. In any break, the key is crowd behavior to help tell the story which in energy is often around geopolitics. We watch ABC corrections and from here we get the energy from the break being balanced. This move that was powered by 50 dma Tenkan spit of a spit. Support is the 50dma, kijun, tenkan & prev high confluence. Resistance is Murrey Math levels and Fib clusters.
Weekly: WTI rebounded after corrected off previous highs in clinical ABC and rebalanced chikou indicative of crowd behavior ahead of $70 strike and 50% fib at 70.29 over 7/8. Reflect on series of fractals at last Dec wave 1 turn after we had completed 5 waves as marked, from here we watched 3 & 5 waves develop. Oil tested and held support at Tenkan. Support below at Kijun and 50 wma It must retain this energy to take out new highs last seen 2019.
These are special times, recall “After we regained the pattern 261.8% from the extreme (-$40) move. The climax of the larger acceleration lower after broke the weekly uptrend, a fractal of the sharp and all the way to all time lows to negative pricing we have seen mirror replications.” Support is previous channels, tenkan and Kijun. Above we have Murrey Math time and price
Crude Oil Futures Committment of Traders
Latest ICE and CFTC Open Interest Data:
CTFC and ICE open interest:
Via Giovanni Staunovo? @staunovo
Chart: Crude net-positioning of non-commercial accounts (=managed money and other reportables) in barrels and in US dollars (Brent and WTI futures and options combined) latest value is June 8
Money managers increased their net-length in WTI crude oil futures and options by 27,853 contracts to 410,092 in the week ending June 8 Long-only positions rose by 15,632 Short-only positions fell by 12,221 other reportables net-length fell by 10,872 – CFTC
Money managers increased their net-length in Brent crude oil futures and options by 23,463 contracts to 290,745 in the week ending June 8 Long-only positions rose by 19,796 Short-only positions rose by 3,667 other reportables net-length fell by 431 – ICE
via Ole S Hansen @Ole_S_Hansen
Funds switching exposure from #agriculture to energy with WTI long (+7% to 410k) at near three-year high. Adding Brent (9% to 291k) the total crude oil long reached a not yet elevated five-week high at 701k. Natgas (+31.4k to 251k) reaching a three-month high.
Week Ended June 8, 2001 via Ole Hansen
Speculators bought WTI (+8k) while keeping an unch #Brent position in wk to April 27. The comb. Oil long reached a six-week high at 677k lots. Biggest change being a 15% jump in the gas oil long to a two-year high.
Understanding DCOT Reports
Read Understanding Commitments of Traders Reports – COT, TFF and DCOT to help understand the disaggregated reports (DCOT) and how they break down the reportable open interest positions into four classifications: 1. Producer/Merchant/Processor/User 2. Swap Dealers 3. Managed Money 4. Other Reportables
Crude Oil Option Volatilty Watch via commodityvol.com
NYMEX LO = Crude Oil Options First 3 Months (Live Link)
NYMEX LO & ICE North Sea Brent BRN Crude Oil Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OH NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
NYMEX LO NYMEX OB Options (Live Link)
The Fundamental Angle with Brynne Kelly @BrynneKKelly
DigStic Data @DigStic
Dec 11 2019 – Two Top Tens this week. One a draw in Cushing, the other a build in Total Products.
RonH Data @Ronh999
Cushing Oil Stocks
NB: Check out Ron’s great work at Ron H Public Tableau Link
US Oil Import Export
Imports
Exports
US Gasoline Consumers
Input to Refineries
US consumers bought 396.50 million gallons of gasoline per day last week. That is +66.1 mil YoY
US consumers spent $1,213.2 million dollars per day for gasoline last week. That is +519.70 mil YoY.
US avg retail price for gasoline was $3.060 last week. That is +0.931 cents YoY
US Crude Oil Production
US Oil Field Production +100kbpd to 11.10 mbpd Off ATH 13.10mpd
Forecast Oil Production Matrix – HFI Research
Implied US oil production from this EIA report is 11 mb/d and headed for 10 mb/d. via @HFI_Research
** Note with the unreliability of the API numbers highlighted by its constant debacles we offer you the bare bones of that report.
US Crude Oil Prices and Recessions
Via John Kemp @JKempEnergy
Key EIA and CME Dates For WTI Crude Oil
CME Crude Oil Futures Calendar
CME Crude Oil Options Calendar
REGULAR & HOLIDAY RELEASE SCHEDULE
From TradersCommunity Research